Simple Moving Average Extrapolation via Monte Carlo (SMAE)In this post, I will dive into my Moving Average Extrapolator, a tool that I created to help traders predict future price movements based on past data. I will discuss the underlying logic, its limitations, and the importance of accounting for delays in the moving average. The following code, my Moving Average Extrapolator, will serve as the basis for our discussion.
The Moving Average Extrapolator uses a simple moving average (SMA) to analyze past price movements and make predictions about future price movements. It uses a Monte Carlo simulation to generate possible future price movements based on historical probabilities.
Let's start by understanding the different components of the code:
The movement_probability function calculates the probability of green and red price movements, where green movements indicate an increase in price, and red movements indicate a decrease in price.
The monte function generates an array of potential price movements using a Monte Carlo simulation.
The sim function uses the generated Monte Carlo array to simulate potential future price movements based on the probabilities calculated earlier.
The draw_lines function draws lines connecting the current price to the extrapolated future price movements.
The extrapolate function calculates the extrapolated future price movements based on the provided source, length, and accuracy.
Limitations of My Moving Average Extrapolator:
Reliance on historical data: My Moving Average Extrapolator relies heavily on historical data to make future price predictions. This can be a limitation, as past performance does not guarantee future results. Market conditions can change, making the extrapolator less reliable in predicting future price movements.
Inherent randomness: The Monte Carlo simulation introduces an element of randomness in the extrapolator's predictions. While this can help in exploring various scenarios, it may not always accurately predict future price movements.
Delay in the moving average: Moving averages inherently have a delay, as they are based on past data. This delay can cause my Moving Average Extrapolator to be less accurate in predicting immediate price movements.
Accounting for Delays in the Moving Average:
It is essential to account for the delay in the moving average to improve the accuracy of my Moving Average Extrapolator. I have taken this into account by introducing a delay variable (delay) in the draw_lines function. The delay variable calculates the delay as half the moving average's length and adjusts the time axis accordingly.
This adjustment helps in reducing the lag in the extrapolator's predictions, making it more accurate and useful for traders. However, it is important to note that even with this adjustment, my Moving Average Extrapolator is still subject to the limitations discussed earlier.
Adding Custom Lookback Period to My Moving Average Extrapolator:
To enhance the functionality and adaptability of my Moving Average Extrapolator, I have implemented an option to set a custom lookback period. The lookback period determines how far back in the historical data the Moving Average Extrapolator should start its analysis.
To achieve this, I have included a method to obtain the current bar index and then calculate the starting bar index by subtracting the desired lookback period.
Here's how to implement the custom lookback period in the Moving Average Extrapolator:
Get the current bar index: I use the bar_index built-in variable to get the current bar index, which represents the current position in the historical data.
Set the start index: To set the start index, you can subtract the desired lookback period from the current bar index. In the code, I have defined a user-input number variable, which can be set to the desired lookback period. By default, it is set to 20800. The starting index for the Moving Average Extrapolator's analysis is calculated as bar_index - number.
Here's the relevant code snippet:
number = input.int(20800, "Bar Start")
And to conditionally run the calculations:
if bar_index > number
draw_lines(avg, extrapolate(close, length, 10), length, extrapolate)
By implementing this custom lookback period, users can easily adjust the starting point of the Moving Average Extrapolator based on their preferences and trading strategies. This allows for more flexibility and adaptability to different market scenarios and ensures that the Moving Average Extrapolator remains a valuable tool for traders.
Conclusion:
My Moving Average Extrapolator can be a valuable tool for traders looking to predict future price movements based on historical data. However, it is essential to understand its limitations and the need to account for the delay in the moving average. By considering these factors, traders can make better-informed decisions and use my Moving Average Extrapolator to complement their trading strategies effectively.
Скользящие средние
MESThe Double Bollinger Bands strategy is a trend-following strategy that aims to identify high-probability trading opportunities in trending markets. The strategy involves using two sets of Bollinger Bands with different standard deviation values to identify potential entry and exit points.
Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool that consists of three lines plotted on a price chart: a simple moving average (SMA) in the middle, and an upper and lower band that are each a certain number of standard deviations away from the SMA. The standard deviation value determines the width of the bands, with a larger deviation resulting in wider bands.
In this indicator, the first set of Bollinger Bands is calculated using a length of 20 bars and a standard deviation of 2, while the second set uses a length of 20 bars and a standard deviation of 3. The bands are plotted on the price chart along with the SMA for each set.
The buy signal is generated when the price falls below the lower band of the second set of Bollinger Bands (the 3-standard deviation band) and then rises above the lower band of the first set (the 2-standard deviation band). This is interpreted as a potential reversal point in a downtrend and a signal to enter a long position.
Conversely, the sell signal is generated when the price rises above the upper band of the second set of Bollinger Bands and then falls below the upper band of the first set. This is interpreted as a potential reversal point in an uptrend and a signal to enter a short position.
To make it easier to identify buy and sell signals on the price chart, the indicator plots triangles above the bars for sell signals and below the bars for buy signals.
Overall, the Double Bollinger Bands strategy can be a useful tool for traders who want to follow trends and identify potential entry and exit points. However, as with any trading strategy, it is important to backtest and thoroughly evaluate its performance before using it in live trading.
Mean ReversionThe "Mean Reversion" indicator in this script is a popular trading strategy that is based on the concept that over time, prices tend to move back towards their mean or average. This trading strategy seeks to identify instances where the price has deviated significantly from its mean and therefore presents an opportunity to profit from its eventual reversion to the mean.
The script calculates the distance between the current price and the EMA using the ATR, which is a measure of volatility. By multiplying the ATR by a specified factor, the script establishes a distance between the current price and the EMA. If the price falls below this distance, it triggers a potential buy signal, indicating that the price may be oversold and due for a rebound.
The script also uses Bollinger Bands to help identify potential buying and selling opportunities. The Bollinger Bands are a technical indicator that measures the volatility of an asset by plotting two standard deviations away from a moving average. When the price moves outside of the Bollinger Bands, it can indicate that the asset is overbought or oversold, potentially triggering a buy or sell signal.
The script's "buySignal" variable is triggered when the price is below the EMA by the specified ATR distance and also falls below the lower Bollinger Band. Conversely, the "sellSignal" variable is triggered when the price is above the EMA by the specified ATR distance and also rises above the upper Bollinger Band.
The script plots the EMA, Bollinger Bands, and the buy and sell signals on the chart for easy visualization. Additionally, the script includes alerts that can be set up to notify the user when a buy or sell signal is triggered, so that they can act on the information in a timely manner.
In summary, this script is a Mean Reversion indicator that aims to identify potential opportunities to buy or sell assets based on deviations from their mean price using a combination of the ATR, EMA, and Bollinger Bands.
T3 OscillatorTL;DR - An Oscillator based on T3 moving average
The T3 moving average is a well known moving average created by Tim TIllson. Oscillator values are created by using the simple formula "source (close by default) - T3 moving average". Tim Tillson used a "volume factor" of 0.7 in his original T3 calculation. I changed this value to 0.618 and added the option to change it if needed/wanted. I also added alarms for zero line crossing upwards and downward, a smoothing option and custom time frames.
Compared to other oscillators like TSI, MACD etc. I observed better signals, especially in trending market situations, from the T3 oscillator (I tested Forex and Crypto).
Usage is simple: If the oscillator is above 0 it indicates a bearish trend. If below 0 it indicates a bullish trend. -> Really simple to use. However it can also be used to determine micro trends and reversals when combined with price action analysis. To keeps things simple I have not added a moving average like many other oscillators because I think it is confusing and does not help (in this particular case).
P.S. I haven't found a T3 oscillator on Trading View. Code is free - do whatever you want with it ;)
Fetch ATR + MA StrategyA trend following indicator that allows traders/investors to enter trades for the long term, as it is mainly tested on the daily chart. The indicator fires off buy and sell signals. The sell signals can be turned off as trader can decide to use this indicator for long term buy signals. The buy signals are indicated by the green diamonds, and the red diamonds show the points on then chart where the asset can be sold.
The indicator uses a couple indicators in order to generate the buy signals:
- ADX
- ATR
- Moving Average of ATR
- 50 SMA
- 200 SMA
The buy signal is generated at the cross overs of the 50 and 200 SMA's while the ATR is lower than then Moving Average of the ATR. The buy signal is fired when these conditions are met and if the ADX is lower than 30.
The thought process is as follows:
When the ATR is lower than its moving average, the price should be in a low volatilty environment. An ADX between 25 and 50 signals a Strong trend. Every value below 25 is an absent or weak trend. So entering a trade when the volatilty is still low but increasing, you'll be entering a trade at the start of a new uptrend. This mechanism also filters out lots of false signals of the simple cross overs.
The sell signals are fired every time the 50 SMA drops below the 200 SMA.
BUY/SELL + ADVANCE DECLINEThis script is a custom trading view indicator that helps to identify potential buy and sell signals based on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and SMA (Simple Moving Average) indicators. The script also identifies potential reversals using a combination of RSI and price action. It plots buy, sell, and reversal signals on the chart along with an SMA line. Additionally, it provides alerts based on the buy, sell, and reversal conditions.
Changes made to the original script:
Fixed the undeclared identifier 'c' error by calculating the difference between the current closing price and the previous closing price: c = close - close .
Added an "ADD Value Floating Label" to the chart. The label shows the difference between the current and previous closing prices (ADD value) along with a "Bullish" or "Bearish" indicator based on the value of 'c'. The label is positioned at the top right of the visible chart area and remains static.
Here's a summary of the major components of the script:
Input settings: Define the input parameters for RSI and SMA.
Calculation of RSI and SMA: Compute the RSI and SMA values based on the input parameters.
Color definitions: Define colors for different conditions and levels.
Condition definitions: Define various conditions for buy, sell, reversal, and other criteria.
Buy and sell conditions: Determine buy and sell signals based on RSI, SMA, and price action.
Reversal conditions: Identify potential reversals using RSI and price action.
Plot signals: Display buy, sell, and reversal signals on the chart.
Bar colors: Color the bars based on the identified signals.
Plot SMA: Display the SMA line on the chart.
Alert conditions: Set up alerts for buy, sell, and reversal conditions.
ADD Value Floating Label: Add a label to the chart showing the ADD value and a "Bullish" or "Bearish" indicator.
Custom Log 21 Week SMAThe Custom Log 21 Week SMA (CL21SMA) indicator is a custom technical analysis tool that calculates and plots the log values of the asset's price relative to its 21-week simple moving average (SMA). This indicator can be used to identify potential trends and price deviations from the moving average.
The CL21SMA indicator performs the following calculations:
Compute the 21-week simple moving average (SMA) of the asset's closing price.
Calculate the log values by dividing the closing price by the 21-week SMA and then taking the base-10 logarithm of the result.
Plot the log values on the chart.
The CL21SMA indicator can help traders to:
Identify potential trends: A positive log value suggests that the price is above the 21-week SMA, indicating a potential uptrend. Conversely, a negative log value implies that the price is below the 21-week SMA, suggesting a potential downtrend.
Detect price deviations: Significant deviations from the 21-week SMA, as indicated by the log values, may highlight potential overbought or oversold conditions, which could prompt traders to take appropriate positions.
Please note that the CL21SMA indicator is best suited for longer-term analysis and should be used in conjunction with other technical indicators and trading strategies to improve the overall decision-making process.
[MiV] Trading SessionHello, everyone!
Today I want to present my new script, which I hope will help not only me!
I'm sure that many people, like me, went through such a stage as "building their strategy". This is when you sit and test on the history how you would enter or exit a trade.
Recently I was doing the same thing and realized that my "tests" involve night time, when in reality I would be asleep and not trading! So I decided to create an indicator that would display my "working hours" so that the backtest I conduct would be as realistic as possible.
Also this indicator is able to display sessions of major exchanges and forex working hours, so it will be useful not only for cryptocurrency lovers.
In addition, we don't always trade every day and, for example, I don't trade on Sunday. That's why we added a feature that "turns off" the day and does not highlight it in color if you're not planning to trade on that day.
And finally, I added a notification of the beginning and end of the trading session. A small thing, but it may also be a useful feature for those who like to sit at the chart!
I will be glad to receive any comments and suggestions!
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Всем привет!
Хочу сегодня представить свой новый скрипт, который, надеюсь, поможет не только мне!
Уверен, что многие, как и я, проходили такой этап как "постройка своей стратегии". Это когда ты сидишь и тестируешь на истории то как бы ты входил или выходил из сделки.
Вот недавно я ровно также занимался этим и осознал, что мои "тесты" затрагивают и ночное время, когда в реальности я бы спал и не торговал! Поэтому я решил создать индикатор, который будет отображать мои "рабочие часы", чтобы бектест, который я провожу, был максимально реалистичным.
Также данный индикатор умеет отображать сессии крупных бирж и время работы форекса, так что полезным он будет не только для любителей криптовалюты.
Кроме того, мы же не всегда торгуем каждый день и например я не торгую в воскресенье. Поэтому добавлен функционал, который "выключает" день и не подсвечивает его цветом, если ты в этот день не планируешь торговать.
Ну и в заключении, добавил уведомление о начале и завершении торговой сессии. Мелочь, а тоже может быть полезной фичей для тех кто любит засесть за графиком!
Буду рад любым замечаниям и предложениям!
RSI Exponential Smoothing (Expo)█ Background information
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) are two popular indicators. Traders use these indicators to understand market trends and predict future price changes. However, traders often wonder which indicator is better: RSI or EMA.
What if these indicators give similar results? To find out, we wanted to study the relationship between RSI and EMA. We focused on a hypothesis: when the RSI goes above 50, it might be similar to the price crossing above a certain length of EMA. Similarly, when the RSI goes below 50, it might be similar to the price crossing below a certain length of EMA.
Our goal was simple: to figure out if there is any connection between RSI and EMA.
Conclusion: Yes, it seems that there is a correlation between RSI and EMA, and this indicator clearly displays that relationship. Read more about the study here:
█ Overview of the indicator
The RSI Exponential Smoothing indicator displays RSI levels with clear overbought and oversold zones, shown as easy-to-understand moving averages, and the RSI 50 line as an EMA. Another excellent feature is the added FIB levels. To activate, open the settings and click on "FIB Bands." These levels act as short-term support and resistance levels which can be used for scalping.
█ Benefits of using this indicator instead of regular RSI
The findings about the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) highlight that both indicators are equally accurate (when it comes to crossings), meaning traders can choose either one without compromising accuracy. This empowers traders to pick the indicator that suits their personal preferences and trading style.
█ How it works
Crossings over/under the value of 50
The EMA line in the indicator acts as the corresponding 50 line in the RSI. When the RSI crosses the value 50 equals when Close crosses the EMA line.
Bouncess from the value 50
In this example, we can see that the EMA line on the chart acts as support/resistance equals when RSI rejects the 50 level.
Overbought and Oversold
The indicator comes with overbought and oversold bands equal when RSI becomes overbought or oversold.
█ How to use
This visual representation helps traders to apply RSI strategies directly on the price chart, potentially making RSI trading easier for traders.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Fibonacci Retracements & Trend Following Strategy Hello! This code creates a Fibonacci retracement indicator and a trend-following strategy indicator. Trading signals and price reversal targets are also calculated. The overall structure of the code is quite clear and readable. The purpose of the code is to calculate Fibonacci retracement levels and a trend-following indicator, display price levels on a chart, calculate trading signals, and calculate price reversal targets.
In the first section, Fibonacci levels are determined. Four different Fibonacci levels are defined: 0.236, 0.382, 0.618, and 0.786. These levels will be used as retracement levels.
Next, a trend-following indicator is calculated. This indicator calculates the averages of high and low prices over a certain period. This indicator can be used to determine the direction of the trend.
Then, price levels are calculated. These levels are determined by calculating the difference between the highest and lowest prices of the trend-following indicator. These levels are used in the calculation of Fibonacci retracement levels.
Next, Fibonacci levels are calculated. These levels are calculated by multiplying price levels with Fibonacci retracement levels. These levels are displayed on the chart.
Trading signals and price reversal targets are calculated. This can be used to trade using a Fibonacci retracement strategy.
Finally, price reversal targets are displayed as circles on the chart.
Usage Guide: Fibonacci Retracement Indicator and Trend Following Strategy
This indicator is used for calculating Fibonacci retracement levels and a trend following indicator, displaying price levels on the chart, calculating trading signals, and determining price targets for reversals. It is important to understand how the indicator works and what type of trading signals it generates before trading with it.
1.)Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Fibonacci retracement levels are used to measure the retracement levels of a trend on the chart. These levels can be used where traders are looking for a reversal signal in the market.
This indicator uses four different Fibonacci levels, which are 0.236, 0.382, 0.618, and 0.786. These levels will be used as retracement levels.
2.)Trend Following Indicator
The trend following indicator calculates the averages of high and low prices over a specific period. This indicator can be used to determine the direction of the trend. While showing a rising trend, it helps the prices stay high, and when showing a falling trend, it can help the prices stay low.
3.)Price Levels
Price levels are determined by calculating the difference between the highest and lowest prices of the trend following indicator. These levels are used to calculate Fibonacci retracement levels.
4.)Trading Signals and Price Reversal Targets
Trading signals and price reversal targets can be used to trade using a Fibonacci retracement strategy. The indicator can buy at Fibonacci levels where prices are retreating in an uptrend, and sell at Fibonacci levels where prices are retreating in a downtrend.
Price reversal targets are shown on the chart in circles.
5.)Fibonacci Retracement Targets
The Fibonacci retracement targets are shown in circles on the chart. These target price levels are calculated by applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the high and low price ranges. These levels can help determine buy or sell signals.
6.)Buy and Sell Signals
The most important feature of the indicator is to determine buy and sell signals. A buy signal is given when the trend-following indicator falls below one of the Fibonacci retracement levels and the price drops below it. A sell signal is given when the trend-following indicator rises and the price goes above one of the Fibonacci retracement levels.
7.)Target Price Levels
Using the retracement levels can be used to determine potential target price levels. Target price levels are determined based on Fibonacci retracement levels and positions can be closed when these levels are reached.
8.)Examples of Using the Indicator:
a) Buy Signal
If the trend-following indicator drops below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and the price falls below it, a buy signal can be given. The target price level can be between the 0.382 and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement levels.
b) Sell Signal
If the trend-following indicator rises and the price goes above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, a sell signal can be given. The target price level can be between the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels.
c) Target Price Levels
When a position is opened, target price levels can be determined based on Fibonacci retracement levels. For example, when opening a buy position, the target price level can be between the 0.382 and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement levels.
The use of the indicator can be made more effective by using it together with other technical analysis tools. In addition, practical experimentation with the use of the indicator in different scenarios can help understand how the indicator works.
Trend Reversal Probability CalculatorThe "Trend Reversal Probability Calculator" is a TradingView indicator that calculates the probability of a trend reversal based on the crossover of multiple moving averages and the rate of change (ROC) of their slopes. This indicator is designed to help traders identify potential trend reversals by providing signals when the short-term moving averages start to slope in the opposite direction of the long-term moving average.
To use the indicator, simply add it to your TradingView chart and adjust the input parameters according to your preferences. The input parameters include the length of the moving averages, the ROC length (trend sensitivity), and the reversal sensitivity (signal percentage).
The indicator calculates the ROC of the moving averages and determines if the short-term moving averages are sloping in the opposite direction of the long-term moving average. The number of short-term moving averages that meet this condition is then counted, and the probability of a trend reversal is calculated based on the percentage of short-term moving averages that meet this condition.
When the probability of a trend reversal is high, a bullish or bearish signal is generated, depending on the direction of the reversal. The bullish signal is generated when the short-term moving averages start to slope upward, and the bearish signal is generated when the short-term moving averages start to slope downward.
Traders can use the "Trend Reversal Probability Calculator" to identify potential trend reversals and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. It is important to note that this indicator is not a guarantee of a trend reversal and should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools to make informed trading decisions.
4 Pole ButterworthTitle: 4 Pole Butterworth Filter: A Smooth Filtering Technique for Technical Analysis
Introduction:
In technical analysis, filtering techniques are employed to remove noise from time-series data, helping traders to identify trends and make better-informed decisions. One such filtering technique is the 4 Pole Butterworth Filter. In this post, we will delve into the 4 Pole Butterworth Filter, explore its properties, and discuss its implementation in Pine Script for TradingView.
4 Pole Butterworth Filter:
The Butterworth filter is a type of infinite impulse response (IIR) filter that is widely used in signal processing applications. Named after the British engineer Stephen Butterworth, this filter is designed to have a maximally flat frequency response in the passband, meaning it does not introduce any distortions or ripples in the filtered signal.
The 4 Pole Butterworth Filter is a specific type of Butterworth filter that utilizes four poles in its transfer function. This design provides a steeper roll-off between the passband and the stopband, allowing for better noise reduction without significantly affecting the underlying data.
Why Choose the 4 Pole Butterworth Filter for Smoothing?
The 4 Pole Butterworth Filter is an excellent choice for smoothing in technical analysis due to its maximally flat frequency response in the passband. This property ensures that the filtered signal remains as close as possible to the original data, without introducing any distortions or ripples. Additionally, the 4 Pole Butterworth Filter provides a steeper roll-off between the passband and the stopband, enabling better noise reduction while preserving the essential features of the data.
Implementing the 4 Pole Butterworth Filter:
In Pine Script, we can implement the 4 Pole Butterworth Filter using a custom function called `fourpolebutter`. The function takes two input parameters: the source data (src) and the filter length (len). The filter length determines the cutoff frequency of the filter, which in turn affects the amount of smoothing applied to the data.
Within the `fourpolebutter` function, we first calculate the filter coefficients based on the filter length. These coefficients are essential for calculating the output of the filter at each data point. Next, we compute the filtered output using a recursive formula that involves the current and previous data points as well as the filter coefficients.
Finally, we create a script that takes user inputs for the source data and filter length and plots the 4 Pole Butterworth Filter on a TradingView chart.
By adjusting the input parameters, users can configure the 4 Pole Butterworth Filter to suit their specific requirements and improve the readability of their charts.
Conclusion:
The 4 Pole Butterworth Filter is a powerful smoothing technique that can be used in technical analysis to effectively reduce noise in time-series data. Its maximally flat frequency response in the passband ensures that the filtered signal remains as close as possible to the original data, while its steeper roll-off between the passband and the stopband provides better noise reduction. By implementing this filter in Pine Script, traders can easily integrate it into their trading strategies and enhance the clarity of their charts.
Chebyshev type I and II FilterTitle: Chebyshev Type I and II Filters: Smoothing Techniques for Technical Analysis
Introduction:
In technical analysis, smoothing techniques are used to remove noise from a time series data. They help to identify trends and improve the readability of charts. One such powerful smoothing technique is the Chebyshev Type I and II Filters. In this post, we will dive deep into the Chebyshev filters, discuss their significance, and explain the differences between Type I and Type II filters.
Chebyshev Filters:
Chebyshev filters are a class of infinite impulse response (IIR) filters that are widely used in signal processing applications. They are known for their ability to provide a sharper cutoff between the passband and the stopband compared to other filter types, such as Butterworth filters. The Chebyshev filters are named after the Russian mathematician Pafnuty Chebyshev, who created the Chebyshev polynomials that form the basis for these filters.
The two main types of Chebyshev filters are:
1. Chebyshev Type I filters: These filters have an equiripple passband, which means they have equal and constant ripple within the passband. The advantage of Type I filters is that they usually provide a faster roll-off rate between the passband and the stopband compared to other filter types. However, the trade-off is that they may have larger ripples in the passband, resulting in a less smooth output.
2. Chebyshev Type II filters: These filters have an equiripple stopband, which means they have equal and constant ripple within the stopband. The advantage of Type II filters is that they provide a more controlled output by minimizing the ripple in the passband. However, this comes at the cost of a slower roll-off rate between the passband and the stopband compared to Type I filters.
Why Choose Chebyshev Filters for Smoothing?
Chebyshev filters are an excellent choice for smoothing in technical analysis due to their ability to provide a sharper transition between the passband and the stopband. This sharper transition helps in preserving the essential features of the underlying data while effectively removing noise. The two types of Chebyshev filters offer different trade-offs between the smoothness of the output and the roll-off rate, allowing users to choose the one that best suits their requirements.
Implementing Chebyshev Filters:
In the Pine Script language, we can implement the Chebyshev Type I and II filters using custom functions. We first define the custom hyperbolic functions cosh, acosh, sinh, and asinh, as well as the inverse tangent function atan. These functions are essential for calculating the filter coefficients.
Next, we create two separate functions for the Chebyshev Type I and II filters, named chebyshevI and chebyshevII, respectively. Each function takes three input parameters: the source data (src), the filter length (len), and the ripple value (ripple). The ripple value determines the amount of ripple in the passband for Type I filters and in the stopband for Type II filters. A higher ripple value results in a faster roll-off rate but may lead to a less smooth output.
Finally, we create a main function called chebyshev, which takes an additional boolean input parameter named style. If the style parameter is set to false, the function calculates the Chebyshev Type I filter using the chebyshevI function. If the style parameter is set to true, the function calculates the Chebyshev Type II filter using the chebyshevII function.
By adjusting the input parameters, users can choose the type of Chebyshev filter and configure its characteristics to suit their needs.
Conclusion:
The Chebyshev Type I and II filters are powerful smoothing techniques that can be used in technical analysis to remove noise from time series data. They offer a sharper transition between the passband and the stopband compared to other filter types, which helps in preserving the essential features of the data while effectively reducing noise. By implementing these filters in Pine Script, traders can easily integrate them into their trading strategies and improve the readability of their charts.
Divergences in 52 Week Moving Averages, Adjusted and SmoothedThis script description is intended to be holistic and comprehensive for the understanding of the interested parties who view the script.
Following the PineCoders suggestions, I have provided detailed breakdowns both within the code and in the description immediately below:
► Description
This description is intended to be detailed and meaningful, conveying the understanding of the script’s intention to the user:
The theory: Divergences and extreme readings in 52-Week highs on major indexes can provide a view into a potential pending move in the opposite direction of how the market has been trending. By comparing the 52-Week Hi/Lo indices and applying an Exponential Moving Average (EMA), we can assess how extreme a move is from the average. If the move provides an extreme reading, it would potentially be beneficial to “fade” the move (take a position in the opposing direction).
The intention: The intentionality of this script is to provide a visualization of when the highly-probable opportunity to fade over a multi-day or multi-week period arises. In addition to this, based on backtesting prior moves and reading the various levels of significant reversals, three tiers: “Standard”, “Sensitive”, and “Highly Sensitive” have been applied, the user can choose which sensitivity level they would like to see, there are far less false positives on the Standard and Sensitive settings, while Highly Sensitive often signals multiple times with the move coming a few days later.
The application: The settings allow the user to customize their sensitivity to the fade signals, with the ability to customize the visual that shows up as well. For higher-highs that are fade-worthy, the signal will appear on the top of the candle, for lower-lows that are fade-worthy, the signal will appear on the bottom of the candle. The users risk criteria should be the primary driver of the entry/exit, although when backtesting it appears that the significant move is typically completed within a 2-4 week period at max and 3-5 day period at minimum.
A personal note: I am a futures trader intraday but would very strongly caution users when using this strategy with futures (unless their risk tolerance is higher than most). The most beneficial strategy when fading moves would be to enter in tranches, starting at the first signal and adding on any pullback (as long as the pullback is not below the initial entry point). 1-6 Week Date-To-Expiry options would be the primary method for applying this strategy. I would also like to add that SPY/SPX options (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust / CBOE S&P 500 Index) are the most liquid options that could be applied in this strategy.
► Description (additional)
With the understanding that few users can read pinescript (Pine), the description above contains all of the necessary information that is necessary for a user to understand the intention for script utilization. For those who do understand Pine, the code is commented in each section in order to provide an understanding of the underlying functions, calculations, and thought process that went on during the writing of the script.
► Description (additional)
This script’s description contains no delegations, all aspects of the script as well as the initial idea behind it are contained in the description above, which is self-contained in it’s entirety with a clear and defined purpose that is written with the intent to holistically capture the intent of the potential use for this indicator.
► General House Rule #2
This script and the description (as well as my profile) contain no links or associations to promotion of any kind, I am not a business, I am not an individual that will in any way make money from this script or the promotion of another person, idea, company, entity, or legal persons (foreign or domestic).
► Originality and usefulness
This is an original and custom script (and idea) that is not a rehashing or a copy of any code from any other programmers in the tradingview community.
Conceptive Price Moving Average [CSM]The Conceptive Price Moving Average (CPMA) is a technical indicator designed to provide a more accurate moving average of the price by using the average of various price types, such as open, close, high, low, etc. The CPMA can help to smooth out the noise and provide a clearer picture of the overall trend by taking the average of the last 3 candles for each price type and then calculating the average of those averages.
To use the CPMA for generating buy/sell signals, you can look for crossovers of the CPMA and other commonly used moving averages, such as the 9-period EMA, 20-period EMA, 50-period EMA, 100-period EMA, and 200-period EMA, which are also plotted on the chart. When the CPMA crosses above a shorter-term moving average, such as the 9-period EMA or 20-period EMA, it can indicate a potential buy opportunity, while when the CPMA crosses below a shorter-term moving average, it can indicate a potential sell opportunity.
Based on my analysis of BankNifty and Nifty, I have found that the CPMA works best at a length of 21, showing good resistance and support for stocks. Therefore, I recommend using a length of 21 when using the CPMA for generating buy/sell signals.
FRAMA and Candlestick Patterns [CSM]FRAMA (Fractal Adaptive Moving Average) is a technical analysis indicator that adapts its smoothing period according to the market's volatility, allowing it to provide accurate signals in all market conditions. This indicator script plots the FRAMA on a chart and generates buy and sell signals based on the FRAMA and candlestick patterns. It also includes an option to filter signals based on bullish and bearish engulfing patterns.
To detect candlestick patterns, the script imports the "BankNifty_CSM" library from the creator's public library on TradingView. The FRAMA calculation is done using a loop that iterates over the last "length" number of bars, with the smoothing factor adjusted based on the "fracDim" parameter.
The buy and sell signals are generated based on the position of the current price relative to the FRAMA line. If the "engulfing" parameter is set to true, the signals are further filtered based on bullish and bearish engulfing patterns.
Overall, this script combines various technical indicators and candlestick pattern recognition to provide a complete trading strategy. However, as with any trading strategy, it should be thoroughly backtested and evaluated before using it in a live trading environment.
AI-Bank-Nifty Tech AnalysisThis code is a TradingView indicator that analyzes the Bank Nifty index of the Indian stock market. It uses various inputs to customize the indicator's appearance and analysis, such as enabling analysis based on the chart's timeframe, detecting bullish and bearish engulfing candles, and setting the table position and style.
The code imports an external script called BankNifty_CSM, which likely contains functions that calculate technical indicators such as the RSI, MACD, VWAP, and more. The code then defines several table cell colors and other styling parameters.
Next, the code defines a table to display the technical analysis of eight bank stocks in the Bank Nifty index. It then defines a function called get_BankComponent_Details that takes a stock symbol as input, requests the stock's OHLCV data, and calculates several technical indicators using the imported CSM_BankNifty functions.
The code also defines two functions called get_EngulfingBullish_Detection and get_EngulfingBearish_Detection to detect bullish and bearish engulfing candles.
Finally, the code calculates the technical analysis for each bank stock using the get_BankComponent_Details function and displays the results in the table. If the engulfing input is enabled, the code also checks for bullish and bearish engulfing candles and displays buy/sell signals accordingly.
The FRAMA stands for "Fractal Adaptive Moving Average," which is a type of moving average that adjusts its smoothing factor based on the fractal dimension of the price data. The fractal dimension reflects self-similarity at different scales. The FRAMA uses this property to adapt to the scale of price movements, capturing short-term and long-term trends while minimizing lag. The FRAMA was developed by John F. Ehlers and is commonly used by traders and analysts in technical analysis to identify trends and generate buy and sell signals. I tried to create this indicator in Pine.
In this context, "RS" stands for "Relative Strength," which is a technical indicator that compares the performance of a particular stock or market sector against a benchmark index.
The "Alligator" is a technical analysis tool that consists of three smoothed moving averages. Introduced by Bill Williams in his book "Trading Chaos," the three lines are called the Jaw, Teeth, and Lips of the Alligator. The Alligator indicator helps traders identify the trend direction and its strength, as well as potential entry and exit points. When the three lines are intertwined or close to each other, it indicates a range-bound market, while a divergence between them indicates a trending market. The position of the price in relation to the Alligator lines can also provide signals, such as a buy signal when the price crosses above the Alligator lines and a sell signal when the price crosses below them.
In addition to these, we have several other commonly used technical indicators, such as MACD, RSI, MFI (Money Flow Index), VWAP, EMA, and Supertrend. I used all the built-in functions for these indicators from TradingView. Thanks to the developer of this TradingView Indicator.
I also created a BankNifty Components Table and checked it on the dashboard.
Low-lag TrendlineWe apply the LLT trend timing to daily data of market indices such as the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite Index, and Shenzhen Composite Index, and use the tangent method to make direction judgments, obtaining a good risk return situation. Compared to MA trend timing, we found that the LLT model has a shorter timing period and better stability. However, there is a problem with using the tangent method to track trend lines, which is that near the turning point of the trend, the tangent slope is prone to oscillate near zero, resulting in multiple timing judgments and a decrease in accuracy. This is equivalent to embedding a certain stop loss mechanism in the timing model, so we call this type of timing method transactional timing. For the LLT indicator, once the trend is established, holding positions can maintain a relatively long profit period, and although there are many volatile trading times near the inflection point, the holding time is often very short. Therefore, for transactional timing, when the accuracy of judgment is relatively low, the proportion of correct judgment time is often high, and profits mainly come from this part of the contribution.
Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform of Filtered Price [Loxx]Down the Rabbit Hole We Go: A Deep Dive into the Mysteries of Quinn-Fernandes Fast Fourier Transform and Hodrick-Prescott Filtering
In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, the ability to accurately identify and exploit underlying market patterns is of paramount importance. As market participants continuously search for innovative tools to gain an edge in their trading and investment strategies, advanced mathematical techniques, such as the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter, have emerged as powerful analytical tools. This comprehensive analysis aims to delve into the rich history and theoretical foundations of these techniques, exploring their applications in financial time series analysis, particularly in the context of a sophisticated trading indicator. Furthermore, we will critically assess the limitations and challenges associated with these transformative tools, while offering practical insights and recommendations for overcoming these hurdles to maximize their potential in the financial domain.
Our investigation will begin with a comprehensive examination of the origins and development of both the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter. We will trace their roots from classical Fourier analysis and time series smoothing to their modern-day adaptive iterations. We will elucidate the key concepts and mathematical underpinnings of these techniques and demonstrate how they are synergistically used in the context of the trading indicator under study.
As we progress, we will carefully consider the potential drawbacks and challenges associated with using the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter as integral components of a trading indicator. By providing a critical evaluation of their computational complexity, sensitivity to input parameters, assumptions about data stationarity, performance in noisy environments, and their nature as lagging indicators, we aim to offer a balanced and comprehensive understanding of these powerful analytical tools.
In conclusion, this in-depth analysis of the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter aims to provide a solid foundation for financial market participants seeking to harness the potential of these advanced techniques in their trading and investment strategies. By shedding light on their history, applications, and limitations, we hope to equip traders and investors with the knowledge and insights necessary to make informed decisions and, ultimately, achieve greater success in the highly competitive world of finance.
█ Fourier Transform and Hodrick-Prescott Filter in Financial Time Series Analysis
Financial time series analysis plays a crucial role in making informed decisions about investments and trading strategies. Among the various methods used in this domain, the Fourier Transform and the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filter have emerged as powerful techniques for processing and analyzing financial data. This section aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of these two methodologies, their significance in financial time series analysis, and their combined application to enhance trading strategies.
█ The Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform: History, Applications, and Use in Financial Time Series Analysis
The Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform is an advanced spectral estimation technique developed by John J. Quinn and Mauricio A. Fernandes in the early 1990s. It builds upon the classical Fourier Transform by introducing an adaptive approach that improves the identification of dominant frequencies in noisy signals. This section will explore the history of the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform, its applications in various domains, and its specific use in financial time series analysis.
History of the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform
The Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform was introduced in a 1993 paper titled "The Application of Adaptive Estimation to the Interpolation of Missing Values in Noisy Signals." In this paper, Quinn and Fernandes developed an adaptive spectral estimation algorithm to address the limitations of the classical Fourier Transform when analyzing noisy signals.
The classical Fourier Transform is a powerful mathematical tool that decomposes a function or a time series into a sum of sinusoids, making it easier to identify underlying patterns and trends. However, its performance can be negatively impacted by noise and missing data points, leading to inaccurate frequency identification.
Quinn and Fernandes sought to address these issues by developing an adaptive algorithm that could more accurately identify the dominant frequencies in a noisy signal, even when data points were missing. This adaptive algorithm, now known as the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform, employs an iterative approach to refine the frequency estimates, ultimately resulting in improved spectral estimation.
Applications of the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform
The Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform has found applications in various fields, including signal processing, telecommunications, geophysics, and biomedical engineering. Its ability to accurately identify dominant frequencies in noisy signals makes it a valuable tool for analyzing and interpreting data in these domains.
For example, in telecommunications, the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform can be used to analyze the performance of communication systems and identify interference patterns. In geophysics, it can help detect and analyze seismic signals and vibrations, leading to improved understanding of geological processes. In biomedical engineering, the technique can be employed to analyze physiological signals, such as electrocardiograms, leading to more accurate diagnoses and better patient care.
Use of the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform in Financial Time Series Analysis
In financial time series analysis, the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform can be a powerful tool for isolating the dominant cycles and frequencies in asset price data. By more accurately identifying these critical cycles, traders can better understand the underlying dynamics of financial markets and develop more effective trading strategies.
The Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform is used in conjunction with the Hodrick-Prescott Filter, a technique that separates the underlying trend from the cyclical component in a time series. By first applying the Hodrick-Prescott Filter to the financial data, short-term fluctuations and noise are removed, resulting in a smoothed representation of the underlying trend. This smoothed data is then subjected to the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform, allowing for more accurate identification of the dominant cycles and frequencies in the asset price data.
By employing the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform in this manner, traders can gain a deeper understanding of the underlying dynamics of financial time series and develop more effective trading strategies. The enhanced knowledge of market cycles and frequencies can lead to improved risk management and ultimately, better investment performance.
The Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform is an advanced spectral estimation technique that has proven valuable in various domains, including financial time series analysis. Its adaptive approach to frequency identification addresses the limitations of the classical Fourier Transform when analyzing noisy signals, leading to more accurate and reliable analysis. By employing the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform in financial time series analysis, traders can gain a deeper understanding of the underlying financial instrument.
Drawbacks to the Quinn-Fernandes algorithm
While the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform is an effective tool for identifying dominant cycles and frequencies in financial time series, it is not without its drawbacks. Some of the limitations and challenges associated with this indicator include:
1. Computational complexity: The adaptive nature of the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform requires iterative calculations, which can lead to increased computational complexity. This can be particularly challenging when analyzing large datasets or when the indicator is used in real-time trading environments.
2. Sensitivity to input parameters: The performance of the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform is dependent on the choice of input parameters, such as the number of harmonic periods, frequency tolerance, and Hodrick-Prescott filter settings. Choosing inappropriate parameter values can lead to inaccurate frequency identification or reduced performance. Finding the optimal parameter settings can be challenging, and may require trial and error or a more sophisticated optimization process.
3. Assumption of stationary data: The Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform assumes that the underlying data is stationary, meaning that its statistical properties do not change over time. However, financial time series data is often non-stationary, with changing trends and volatility. This can limit the effectiveness of the indicator and may require additional preprocessing steps, such as detrending or differencing, to ensure the data meets the assumptions of the algorithm.
4. Limitations in noisy environments: Although the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform is designed to handle noisy signals, its performance may still be negatively impacted by significant noise levels. In such cases, the identification of dominant frequencies may become less reliable, leading to suboptimal trading signals or strategies.
5. Lagging indicator: As with many technical analysis tools, the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform is a lagging indicator, meaning that it is based on past data. While it can provide valuable insights into historical market dynamics, its ability to predict future price movements may be limited. This can result in false signals or late entries and exits, potentially reducing the effectiveness of trading strategies based on this indicator.
Despite these drawbacks, the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform remains a valuable tool for financial time series analysis when used appropriately. By being aware of its limitations and adjusting input parameters or preprocessing steps as needed, traders can still benefit from its ability to identify dominant cycles and frequencies in financial data, and use this information to inform their trading strategies.
█ Deep-dive into the Hodrick-Prescott Fitler
The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is a statistical tool used in economics and finance to separate a time series into two components: a trend component and a cyclical component. It is a powerful tool for identifying long-term trends in economic and financial data and is widely used by economists, central banks, and financial institutions around the world.
The HP filter was first introduced in the 1990s by economists Robert Hodrick and Edward Prescott. It is a simple, two-parameter filter that separates a time series into a trend component and a cyclical component. The trend component represents the long-term behavior of the data, while the cyclical component captures the shorter-term fluctuations around the trend.
The HP filter works by minimizing the following objective function:
Minimize: (Sum of Squared Deviations) + λ (Sum of Squared Second Differences)
Where:
1. The first term represents the deviation of the data from the trend.
2. The second term represents the smoothness of the trend.
3. λ is a smoothing parameter that determines the degree of smoothness of the trend.
The smoothing parameter λ is typically set to a value between 100 and 1600, depending on the frequency of the data. Higher values of λ lead to a smoother trend, while lower values lead to a more volatile trend.
The HP filter has several advantages over other smoothing techniques. It is a non-parametric method, meaning that it does not make any assumptions about the underlying distribution of the data. It also allows for easy comparison of trends across different time series and can be used with data of any frequency.
Another significant advantage of the HP Filter is its ability to adapt to changes in the underlying trend. This feature makes it particularly well-suited for analyzing financial time series, which often exhibit non-stationary behavior. By employing the HP Filter to smooth financial data, traders can more accurately identify and analyze the long-term trends that drive asset prices, ultimately leading to better-informed investment decisions.
However, the HP filter also has some limitations. It assumes that the trend is a smooth function, which may not be the case in some situations. It can also be sensitive to changes in the smoothing parameter λ, which may result in different trends for the same data. Additionally, the filter may produce unrealistic trends for very short time series.
Despite these limitations, the HP filter remains a valuable tool for analyzing economic and financial data. It is widely used by central banks and financial institutions to monitor long-term trends in the economy, and it can be used to identify turning points in the business cycle. The filter can also be used to analyze asset prices, exchange rates, and other financial variables.
The Hodrick-Prescott filter is a powerful tool for analyzing economic and financial data. It separates a time series into a trend component and a cyclical component, allowing for easy identification of long-term trends and turning points in the business cycle. While it has some limitations, it remains a valuable tool for economists, central banks, and financial institutions around the world.
█ Combined Application of Fourier Transform and Hodrick-Prescott Filter
The integration of the Fourier Transform and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter in financial time series analysis can offer several benefits. By first applying the HP Filter to the financial data, traders can remove short-term fluctuations and noise, effectively isolating the underlying trend. This smoothed data can then be subjected to the Fourier Transform, allowing for the identification of dominant cycles and frequencies with greater precision.
By combining these two powerful techniques, traders can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the underlying dynamics of financial time series. This enhanced knowledge can lead to the development of more effective trading strategies, better risk management, and ultimately, improved investment performance.
The Fourier Transform and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter are powerful tools for financial time series analysis. Each technique offers unique benefits, with the Fourier Transform being adept at identifying dominant cycles and frequencies, and the HP Filter excelling at isolating long-term trends from short-term noise. By combining these methodologies, traders can develop a deeper understanding of the underlying dynamics of financial time series, leading to more informed investment decisions and improved trading strategies. As the financial markets continue to evolve, the combined application of these techniques will undoubtedly remain an essential aspect of modern financial analysis.
█ Features
Endpointed and Non-repainting
This is an endpointed and non-repainting indicator. These are crucial factors that contribute to its usefulness and reliability in trading and investment strategies. Let us break down these concepts and discuss why they matter in the context of a financial indicator.
1. Endpoint nature: An endpoint indicator uses the most recent data points to calculate its values, ensuring that the output is timely and reflective of the current market conditions. This is in contrast to non-endpoint indicators, which may use earlier data points in their calculations, potentially leading to less timely or less relevant results. By utilizing the most recent data available, the endpoint nature of this indicator ensures that it remains up-to-date and relevant, providing traders and investors with valuable and actionable insights into the market dynamics.
2. Non-repainting characteristic: A non-repainting indicator is one that does not change its values or signals after they have been generated. This means that once a signal or a value has been plotted on the chart, it will remain there, and future data will not affect it. This is crucial for traders and investors, as it offers a sense of consistency and certainty when making decisions based on the indicator's output.
Repainting indicators, on the other hand, can change their values or signals as new data comes in, effectively "repainting" the past. This can be problematic for several reasons:
a. Misleading results: Repainting indicators can create the illusion of a highly accurate or successful trading system when backtesting, as the indicator may adapt its past signals to fit the historical price data. This can lead to overly optimistic performance results that may not hold up in real-time trading.
b. Decision-making uncertainty: When an indicator repaints, it becomes challenging for traders and investors to trust its signals, as the signal that prompted a trade may change or disappear after the fact. This can create confusion and indecision, making it difficult to execute a consistent trading strategy.
The endpoint and non-repainting characteristics of this indicator contribute to its overall reliability and effectiveness as a tool for trading and investment decision-making. By providing timely and consistent information, this indicator helps traders and investors make well-informed decisions that are less likely to be influenced by misleading or shifting data.
Inputs
Source: This input determines the source of the price data to be used for the calculations. Users can select from options like closing price, opening price, high, low, etc., based on their preferences. Changing the source of the price data (e.g., from closing price to opening price) will alter the base data used for calculations, which may lead to different patterns and cycles being identified.
Calculation Bars: This input represents the number of past bars used for the calculation. A higher value will use more historical data for the analysis, while a lower value will focus on more recent price data. Increasing the number of past bars used for calculation will incorporate more historical data into the analysis. This may lead to a more comprehensive understanding of long-term trends but could also result in a slower response to recent price changes. Decreasing this value will focus more on recent data, potentially making the indicator more responsive to short-term fluctuations.
Harmonic Period: This input represents the harmonic period, which is the number of harmonics used in the Fourier Transform. A higher value will result in more harmonics being used, potentially capturing more complex cycles in the price data. Increasing the harmonic period will include more harmonics in the Fourier Transform, potentially capturing more complex cycles in the price data. However, this may also introduce more noise and make it harder to identify clear patterns. Decreasing this value will focus on simpler cycles and may make the analysis clearer, but it might miss out on more complex patterns.
Frequency Tolerance: This input represents the frequency tolerance, which determines how close the frequencies of the harmonics must be to be considered part of the same cycle. A higher value will allow for more variation between harmonics, while a lower value will require the frequencies to be more similar. Increasing the frequency tolerance will allow for more variation between harmonics, potentially capturing a broader range of cycles. However, this may also introduce noise and make it more difficult to identify clear patterns. Decreasing this value will require the frequencies to be more similar, potentially making the analysis clearer, but it might miss out on some cycles.
Number of Bars to Render: This input determines the number of bars to render on the chart. A higher value will result in more historical data being displayed, but it may also slow down the computation due to the increased amount of data being processed. Increasing the number of bars to render on the chart will display more historical data, providing a broader context for the analysis. However, this may also slow down the computation due to the increased amount of data being processed. Decreasing this value will speed up the computation, but it will provide less historical context for the analysis.
Smoothing Mode: This input allows the user to choose between two smoothing modes for the source price data: no smoothing or Hodrick-Prescott (HP) smoothing. The choice depends on the user's preference for how the price data should be processed before the Fourier Transform is applied. Choosing between no smoothing and Hodrick-Prescott (HP) smoothing will affect the preprocessing of the price data. Using HP smoothing will remove some of the short-term fluctuations from the data, potentially making the analysis clearer and more focused on longer-term trends. Not using smoothing will retain the original price fluctuations, which may provide more detail but also introduce noise into the analysis.
Hodrick-Prescott Filter Period: This input represents the Hodrick-Prescott filter period, which is used if the user chooses to apply HP smoothing to the price data. A higher value will result in a smoother curve, while a lower value will retain more of the original price fluctuations. Increasing the Hodrick-Prescott filter period will result in a smoother curve for the price data, emphasizing longer-term trends and minimizing short-term fluctuations. Decreasing this value will retain more of the original price fluctuations, potentially providing more detail but also introducing noise into the analysis.
Alets and signals
This indicator featues alerts, signals and bar coloring. You have to option to turn these on/off in the settings menu.
Maximum Bars Restriction
This indicator requires a large amount of processing power to render on the chart. To reduce overhead, the setting "Number of Bars to Render" is set to 500 bars. You can adjust this to you liking.
█ Related Indicators and Libraries
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Normalized, Variety, Fast Fourier Transform Explorer
Real-Fast Fourier Transform of Price Oscillator
Real-Fast Fourier Transform of Price w/ Linear Regression
Fourier Extrapolation of Variety Moving Averages
Fourier Extrapolator of Variety RSI w/ Bollinger Bands
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Variety RSI of Fast Discrete Cosine Transform
loxfft
Probability Envelopes (PBE)Introduction
In the world of trading, technical analysis is vital for making informed decisions about the future direction of an asset's price. One such tool is the use of indicators, mathematical calculations that can help traders predict market trends. This article delves into an innovative indicator called the Probability Envelopes Indicator, which offers valuable insights into the potential price levels an asset may reach based on historical data. This in-depth look explores the statistical foundations of the indicator, highlighting its key components and benefits.
Section 1: Calculating Price Movements with Log Returns and Percentages
The Probability Envelopes Indicator provides the option to use either log returns or percentage changes when calculating price movements. Each method has its advantages:
Log Returns: These are calculated as the natural logarithm of the ratio of the current price to the previous price. Log returns are considered more stable and less sensitive to extreme price fluctuations.
Percentage Changes: These are calculated as the percentage difference between the current price and the previous price. They are simpler to interpret and easier to understand for most traders.
Section 2: Understanding Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation
The Probability Envelopes Indicator utilizes various statistical measures to analyze historical price movements:
Mean: This is the average of a set of numbers. In the context of this indicator, it represents the average price movement for bullish (green) and bearish (red) scenarios.
Variance: This measure represents the dispersion of data points in a dataset. A higher variance indicates a greater spread of data points from the mean. Variance is calculated as the average of the squared differences from the mean.
Standard Deviation: This is the square root of the variance. It is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion in a dataset. In the context of this indicator, standard deviations are used to calculate the width of the bands around the expected mean.
Section 3: Analyzing Historical Price Movements and Probabilities
The Probability Envelopes Indicator examines historical price movements and calculates probabilities based on their frequency:
The indicator first identifies and categorizes price movements into bullish (green) and bearish (red) scenarios.
It then calculates the probability of each price movement occurring by dividing the frequency of the movement by the total number of occurrences in each category (bullish or bearish).
The expected green and red movements are calculated by multiplying the probabilities by their respective price movements and summing the results.
The total expected movement, or weighted average, is calculated by combining the expected green and red movements and dividing by the total number of occurrences.
Section 4: Constructing the Probability Envelopes
The Probability Envelopes Indicator utilizes the calculated statistics to construct its bands:
The expected mean is calculated using the total expected movement and applied to the current open price.
An exponential moving average (EMA) is used to smooth the expected mean, with the smoothing length determining the degree of responsiveness.
The upper and lower bands are calculated by adding and subtracting the mean green and red movements, respectively, along with their standard deviations multiplied by a user-defined multiplier.
Section 5: Benefits of the Probability Envelopes Indicator
The Probability Envelopes Indicator offers numerous advantages to traders:
Enhanced Decision-Making: By providing probability-based estimations of future price levels, the indicator can help traders make more informed decisions and potentially improve their trading strategies.
Versatility: The indicator is applicable to various financial instruments, such as stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, making it a valuable tool for traders in different markets.
Customization: The indicator's parameters, including the use of log returns, multiplier values, and smoothing length, can be adjusted according to the user's preferences and trading style. This flexibility allows traders to fine-tune the Probability Envelopes Indicator to better suit their needs and goals.
Risk Management: The Probability Envelopes Indicator can be used as a component of a risk management strategy by providing insight into potential price movements. By identifying potential areas of support and resistance, traders can set stop-loss and take-profit levels more effectively.
Visualization: The graphical representation of the indicator, with its clear upper and lower bands, makes it easy for traders to quickly assess the market and potential price levels.
Section 6: Integrating the Probability Envelopes Indicator into Your Trading Strategy
When incorporating the Probability Envelopes Indicator into your trading strategy, consider the following tips:
Confirmation Signals: Use the indicator in conjunction with other technical analysis tools, such as trend lines, moving averages, or oscillators, to confirm the strength and direction of the market trend.
Timeframes: Experiment with different timeframes to find the optimal settings for your trading strategy. Keep in mind that shorter timeframes may generate more frequent signals but may also increase the likelihood of false signals.
Risk Management: Always establish a proper risk management strategy that includes setting stop-loss and take-profit levels, as well as managing your position sizes.
Backtesting: Test the Probability Envelopes Indicator on historical data to evaluate its effectiveness and fine-tune its parameters to optimize your trading strategy.
Section 7: Cons and Limitations of the Probability Envelopes Indicator
While the Probability Envelopes Indicator offers several advantages to traders, it is essential to be aware of its potential cons and limitations. Understanding these can help you make better-informed decisions when incorporating the indicator into your trading strategy.
Lagging Nature: The Probability Envelopes Indicator is primarily based on historical data and price movements. As a result, it may be less responsive to real-time changes in market conditions, and the predicted price levels may not always accurately reflect the market's current state. This lagging nature can lead to late entry and exit signals.
False Signals: As with any technical analysis tool, the Probability Envelopes Indicator can generate false signals. These occur when the indicator suggests a potential price movement, but the market does not follow through. It is crucial to use other technical analysis tools to confirm the signals and minimize the impact of false signals on your trading decisions.
Complex Statistical Concepts: The Probability Envelopes Indicator relies on complex statistical concepts and calculations, which may be challenging to grasp for some traders, particularly beginners. This complexity can lead to misunderstandings and misuse of the indicator if not adequately understood.
Overemphasis on Past Data: While historical data can be informative, relying too heavily on past performance to predict future movements can be limiting. Market conditions can change rapidly, and relying solely on past data may not provide an accurate representation of the current market environment.
No Guarantees: The Probability Envelopes Indicator, like all technical analysis tools, cannot guarantee success. It is essential to approach trading with realistic expectations and understand that no indicator or strategy can provide foolproof results.
To overcome these limitations, it is crucial to combine the Probability Envelopes Indicator with other technical analysis tools and utilize a comprehensive risk management strategy. By doing so, you can better understand the market and increase your chances of success in the ever-changing financial markets.
Section 8: Probability Envelopes Indicator vs. Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands and the Probability Envelopes Indicator are both technical analysis tools designed to identify potential support and resistance levels, as well as potential trend reversals. However, they differ in their underlying concepts, calculations, and applications. This section will provide a deep dive into the differences between these two indicators and how they can complement each other in a trading strategy.
Underlying Concepts and Calculations:
Bollinger Bands:
Bollinger Bands are based on a simple moving average (SMA) of the price data, with upper and lower bands plotted at a specified number of standard deviations away from the SMA.
The distance between the bands widens during periods of increased price volatility and narrows during periods of low volatility, indicating potential trend reversals or breakouts.
The standard settings for Bollinger Bands typically involve a 20-period SMA and a 2 standard deviation distance for the upper and lower bands.
Probability Envelopes Indicator:
The Probability Envelopes Indicator calculates the expected price movements based on historical data and probabilities, utilizing mean and standard deviation calculations for both upward and downward price movements.
It generates upper and lower bands based on the calculated expected mean movement and the standard deviation of historical price changes, multiplied by a user-defined multiplier.
The Probability Envelopes Indicator also allows users to choose between using log returns or percentage changes for the calculations, adding flexibility to the indicator.
Key Differences:
Calculation Method: Bollinger Bands are based on a simple moving average and standard deviations, while the Probability Envelopes Indicator uses statistical probability calculations derived from historical price changes.
Flexibility: The Probability Envelopes Indicator allows users to choose between log returns or percentage changes and adjust the multiplier, offering more customization options compared to Bollinger Bands.
Risk Management: Bollinger Bands primarily focus on volatility, while the Probability Envelopes Indicator incorporates probability calculations to provide additional insights into potential price movements, which can be helpful for risk management purposes.
Complementary Use:
Using both Bollinger Bands and the Probability Envelopes Indicator in your trading strategy can offer valuable insights into market conditions and potential price levels.
Bollinger Bands can provide insights into market volatility and potential breakouts or trend reversals based on the widening or narrowing of the bands.
The Probability Envelopes Indicator can offer additional information on the expected price movements based on historical data and probabilities, which can be helpful in anticipating potential support and resistance levels.
Combining these two indicators can help traders to better understand market dynamics and increase their chances of identifying profitable trading opportunities.
In conclusion, while both Bollinger Bands and the Probability Envelopes Indicator aim to identify potential support and resistance levels, they differ significantly in their underlying concepts, calculations, and applications. By understanding these differences and incorporating both tools into your trading strategy, you can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the market and make more informed trading decisions.
In conclusion, the Probability Envelopes Indicator is a powerful and versatile technical analysis tool that offers unique insights into expected price movements based on historical data and probability calculations. It provides traders with the ability to identify potential support and resistance levels, as well as potential trend reversals. When compared to Bollinger Bands, the Probability Envelopes Indicator offers more customization options and incorporates probability-based calculations for a different perspective on market dynamics.
Although the Probability Envelopes Indicator has its limitations and potential cons, such as the reliance on historical data and the assumption that past performance is indicative of future results, it remains a valuable addition to any trader's toolkit. By using the Probability Envelopes Indicator in conjunction with other technical analysis tools, such as Bollinger Bands, traders can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the market and make more informed trading decisions.
Ultimately, the success of any trading strategy relies on the ability to interpret and apply multiple indicators effectively. The Probability Envelopes Indicator serves as a unique and valuable tool in this regard, providing traders with a deeper understanding of the market and its potential price movements. By utilizing this indicator in combination with other tools and techniques, traders can increase their chances of success and optimize their trading strategies.
Normalized KAMA Oscillator | Ikke OmarThis indicator demonstrates the creation of a normalized KAMA (Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average) oscillator with a table display. I will explain how the code works, providing a step-by-step breakdown. This is personally made by me:)
Input Parameters:
fast_period and slow_period: Define the periods for calculating the KAMA.
er_period: Specifies the period for calculating the Efficiency Ratio.
norm_period: Determines the lookback period for normalizing the oscillator.
Efficiency Ratio (ER) Calculation:
Measures the efficiency of price changes over a specified period.
Calculated as the ratio of the absolute price change to the total price volatility.
Smoothing Constant Calculation:
Determines the smoothing constant (sc) based on the Efficiency Ratio (ER) and the fast and slow periods.
The formula accounts for the different periods to calculate an appropriate smoothing factor.
KAMA Calculation:
Uses the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the smoothing constant to compute the KAMA.
Combines the fast EMA and the adjusted price change to adapt to market conditions.
Oscillator Normalization:
Normalizes the oscillator values to a range between -0.5 and 0.5 for better visualization and comparison.
Determines the highest and lowest values of the KAMA within the specified normalization period.
Transforms the KAMA values into a normalized range.
By incorporating the Efficiency Ratio, smoothing constant, and normalization techniques, the indicator actually allows for the identification of trends on different timeframes, even in extreme market conditions.
The normalization makes it much more adaptive than if you were to just use a normal KAMA line. This way you actually get a lot more data by looking at the histogram, rather than just the KAMA line.
I essentially made the KAMA into an oscillator! Please ask if you want me to code another indicator
I hope you enjoyed this.
Please ask if you have any questions<3
Zero Lag Moving Average with Gaussian weightsIntroduction
The Zero Lag Moving Average (ZLMA) is a powerful technical indicator that aims to eliminate the lag inherent in traditional moving averages. This post provides a comprehensive exploration of the ZLMA with Gaussian Weights (GWMA) indicator, discussing the concepts, the calculations, and its application in trading.
Concepts
Zero Lag Moving Average (ZLMA): A ZLMA is an advanced moving average designed to reduce the lag in price movements associated with conventional moving averages. This reduction in lag enables traders to make more informed decisions based on the most recent price data.
Gaussian Weights: Gaussian weights are derived from the Gaussian function, which is a mathematical function used to calculate probabilities in a normal distribution. The Gaussian function is smooth, symmetric, and has a bell-shaped curve. In this context, Gaussian weights are used to calculate the weighted average of a series of data points.
Why Gaussian Weights are Beneficial
Gaussian Weights offer several advantages in comparison to traditional moving averages. One of the main reasons for using Gaussian Weights is to address the issue of lag, which is commonly associated with simple and exponential moving averages. By reducing lag, traders can make more informed decisions based on up-to-date information.
Another advantage of Gaussian Weights is their mathematical foundation, which is rooted in the Gaussian function. This function describes the normal distribution in probability theory and statistics. The smooth and symmetric bell-shaped curve of Gaussian Weights enables a more refined approach to handling data points, resulting in a more responsive and accurate moving average.
While exponential moving averages (EMAs) also assign more weight to recent data points, they can still exhibit some lag. Gaussian Weights, on the other hand, offer a smoother and more adaptive solution to different market conditions. By adjusting the smoothing period, traders can tailor the Gaussian Weights to their specific needs, making them a versatile tool for various trading strategies.
In summary, Gaussian Weights provide a valuable alternative to traditional moving averages due to their ability to reduce lag, their strong mathematical foundation, and their adaptability to different market conditions. These benefits make Gaussian Weights a worthwhile consideration for traders looking to enhance their trading strategies.
Calculations
The ZLMA with GWMA consists of two main calculations:
Gaussian Weight Calculation: The Gaussian weight for a given 'k' and 'smooth_per' is calculated using the standard deviation (sigma) and the exponent part of the Gaussian function.
Zero-Lag GWMA Calculation: The zero-lag GWMA is calculated using a source buffer, a Gaussian weighted moving average (gwma1), and an output array. The source buffer stores the input data, the gwma1 array stores the first Gaussian weighted moving average, and the output array stores the final zero-lag moving average.
Application in Trading
The ZLMA with GWMA indicator can be used to identify trends and potential entry/exit points in trading:
Trend Identification: When the ZLMA is above the price, it indicates a bearish trend, and when it is below the price, it indicates a bullish trend.
Entry/Exit Points: Traders can use crossovers between the ZLMA and price to identify potential entry and exit points. A long position could be taken when the price crosses above the ZLMA, and a short position could be taken when the price crosses below the ZLMA.
Conclusion
The Zero Lag Moving Average with Gaussian Weights is a powerful and versatile indicator that can be used in various trading strategies. By minimizing the lag associated with traditional moving averages, the ZLMA with GWMA provides traders with more accurate and timely information about price trends and potential trade opportunities.
Forex RadarForex Radar Indicator: A Powerful Tool for Analyzing Currency Strength and Weakness
Introduction
The Forex Radar Indicator is an innovative tool that provides a visual representation of the relative strength and weakness of various currencies in the Forex market. This indicator is designed to help traders identify potential trading opportunities by analyzing the performance of different currency pairs. In this blog post, we will explore the features and benefits of the Forex Radar Indicator, and explain how to use it effectively in your trading strategy.
Features of the Forex Radar Indicator
1. Spider Plot Visualization
The Forex Radar Indicator uses a spider plot to display the relative strength and weakness of various currencies. A spider plot is a graphical representation of multivariate data, in which each variable is plotted on a separate axis that radiates from the center of the plot. The data points are connected by lines, forming a web-like pattern that makes it easy to compare the performance of different currencies.
2. Customizable Color Scheme
The Forex Radar Indicator allows users to customize the color scheme for each currency, making it easy to identify individual currencies on the spider plot. This feature can be particularly helpful for traders who prefer specific colors for each currency, or who want to use a color scheme that matches their trading platform or charting tools.
3. EMA Divergence and RSI Style Selection
The Forex Radar Indicator offers users the flexibility to choose between two different styles: EMA divergence and RSI. The EMA divergence style displays the difference between a short-term and long-term exponential moving average, while the RSI style shows the relative strength index of the currency pairs. By selecting the preferred style, traders can customize the indicator to suit their specific trading style and strategy.
4. Flexible Input Parameters
The Forex Radar Indicator offers flexible input parameters, allowing users to customize the indicator according to their trading preferences. These parameters include the length of the moving average, the filter value for the moving average, and the normalization length. By adjusting these parameters, traders can fine-tune the indicator to suit their specific trading style and strategy.
Using the Forex Radar Indicator in Your Trading Strategy
The Forex Radar Indicator can be a valuable tool in any trading strategy, as it provides a visual representation of the currency strength and weakness. Here are some tips on how to use the Forex Radar Indicator effectively in your trading:
1. Identify Currency Strength and Weakness
The main purpose of the Forex Radar Indicator is to help traders identify the strength and weakness of various currencies. By analyzing the spider plot, traders can quickly determine which currencies are performing well and which are underperforming. This information can be used to identify potential trading opportunities, as traders can focus on currency pairs that feature a strong currency against a weak one.
2. Choose Between EMA Divergence and RSI Style
Depending on your trading style and strategy, you can choose between the EMA divergence and RSI style options provided by the Forex Radar Indicator. Both styles offer valuable insights into currency strength and weakness, but they may highlight different aspects of the market. By selecting the style that best aligns with your trading approach, you can maximize the effectiveness of the indicator in your trading strategy.
3. Combine with Other Technical Analysis Tools
While the Forex Radar Indicator provides valuable insights into currency strength and weakness, it is important to remember that no single indicator can provide a complete picture of the market. To improve the accuracy and effectiveness of your trading strategy, consider combining the Forex Radar Indicator with other technical analysis tools, such as trend lines, support and resistance levels, and other indicators.
Conclusion
The Forex Radar Indicator is a powerful tool that can help traders gain a better understanding of the relative strength and weakness of various currencies in the Forex market. By incorporating the Forex Radar Indicator into your trading strategy, you can quickly identify potential trading opportunities and make more informed trading decisions. With its customizable color scheme, EMA divergence and RSI style options, and flexible input parameters, the Forex Radar Indicator is a versatile tool that can be adapted to suit any trading style or strategy.
