ATR ControlThis indicator shows the following values:
ATR value of the current symbol
Size of the full position based on the maximum risk set
Three sizes that are percents of the full size already present in this indicator
Customizable settings are:
Show/hide single rows
ATR Timeframe
ATR Lenght
First percent of the split to apply
Second percent of the split to apply
Maximum risk
The last percent is automatically calculated using the first two.
Example:
Full size: 500
First percent: 10
Second percent: 40
The third percent is calculated as 100 - first percent - second percent = 50
The split sizes shown are: 50/200/250
Волатильность
Turtle tradingA minimal breakout trend following indicator (Turtle trading). Entry is on the break of a Donchian channel and exit is on the reversal at a shorter-term Donchian channel (trailing stop).
Entry levels are hidden in an active trend, and only the active exit level is shown. Levels and entry/exit markers can be shown or hidden independently.
FibonRSI / ErkOziHello,
This software is a technical analysis script written in the TradingView Pine language. The script creates a trading indicator based on Fibonacci retracement levels and the RSI indicator, providing information about price movements and asset volatility by using Bollinger Bands.
There are many different scripts in the market that draw RSI and Fibonacci retracement levels. However, this script was originally designed by me and shared publicly on TradingView.
***The indicator uses RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Bollinger Bands (BB) as the basis for the FibonRSI strategy. RSI measures the strength of a price movement, and BB measures the volatility of an asset. The FibonRSI strategy is based on the idea that the Fibonacci ratios and RSI can be used to predict a asset's price retracement levels.
***The script allows for various parameters to be adjusted. Users can specify the price source type and adjust the periods for RSI and Bollinger Bands. The standard deviation number for Bollinger Bands can also be customized.
***The script calculates the current RSI indicator position and the basic, upper, and lower levels of Bollinger Bands. It then calculates and draws the Fibonacci retracement levels. The color of the RSI line is determined by the upper and lower distribution levels of Bollinger Bands. Additionally, the color of the Fibonacci retracement levels can also be customized by the user.
***This script can be used to determine potential buy and sell signals using Fibonacci retracement levels and RSI. For example, when the RSI is oversold and the price is close to a Fibonacci retracement level, it can be interpreted as a buying opportunity. Similarly, when the RSI is overbought and the price is close to a Fibonacci retracement level, it can be interpreted as a selling opportunity.
***The script takes input parameters such as the price source used for calculation, the period for the RSI indicator, the period for the Moving Average in Bollinger Bands, and the number of standard deviations used in Bollinger Bands.
***The script's conditions include elements such as calculating the current position of the RSI indicator, calculating the upper and lower Bollinger Bands, calculating the dispersion factor, and calculating Fibonacci levels.
***The parameters in the code can be adjusted for calculation, including the price type used, the RSI period, the Moving Average period for BB, and the standard deviation count for BB. After this, the current position of the RSI, Moving Average, and standard deviation for BB are calculated. After calculating the upper and lower BB, the levels above and below the average are calculated using a specific dispersion constant.
CONDITIONS FOR THE SCRIPT
current_rsi = ta.rsi(src, for_rsi) // Current position of the RSI indicator
basis = ta.ema(current_rsi, for_ma)
dev = for_mult * ta.stdev(current_rsi, for_ma)
upper = basis + dev
lower = basis - dev
dispersion = 1
disp_up = basis + (upper - lower) * dispersion
disp_down = basis - (upper - lower) * dispersion
// Fibonacci Levels
f100 = basis + (upper - lower) * 1.0
f78 = basis + (upper - lower) * 0.78
f65 = basis + (upper - lower) * 0.65
f50 = basis
f35 = basis - (upper - lower) * 0.65
f23 = basis - (upper - lower) * 0.78
f0 = basis - (upper - lower) * 1.0
***When calculating Fibonacci levels, the distance between the average of BB and the upper and lower BB is used. These levels are 0%, 23.6%, 35%, 50%, 65%, 78.6%, and 100%. Finally, the RSI line that changes color according to a specific RSI position, Fibonacci levels, and BB are visualized. Additionally, the levels of 70, 30, and 50 are also shown.
The script then sets the color of the RSI position according to the EMA and draws Bollinger Bands, RSI, Fibonacci levels, and the 70, 30, and 50 levels.
In conclusion, this script enables traders to analyze market trends and make informed decisions. It can also be customized to suit individual trading strategies.
This script analyzes the RSI indicator using Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci levels. The default settings are 14 periods for RSI, 233 periods and 2 standard deviations for BB. The MA period inside BB is selected as the BB period and is used when calculating Fibonacci levels.
***The reason for selecting these settings is to provide enough time for BB period to confirm a possible trend. Additionally, the MA period inside BB is matched with the BB period and used when calculating Fibonacci levels.
***Fibonacci levels are calculated from the distance between the upper and lower bands of BB and show how RSI movement is related to these levels. Better results can be achieved when RSI periods are set to Fibonacci numbers such as 21, 55, and 89. Therefore, the use of Fibonacci numbers is recommended when adjusting RSI periods. Fibonacci numbers are among the technical analysis tools that can capture the reflection of naturally occurring movements in the market. Therefore, the use of Fibonacci numbers often helps to better track fluctuations in the market.
Finally, the indicator also displays the 70 and 30 levels and the middle level (50) with Fibonacci levels drawn in circles. Changing these settings can help optimize the Fibonacci levels and further improve the indicator.
Thank you in advance for your suggestions and opinions......
Price Extrapolator with Std DeviationPrice Extrapolator with Deviation Cones - A Powerful Tool for Predicting Future Prices
Subtitle: Discover how this custom indicator can help you forecast potential price movements with greater accuracy, using historical data.
Introduction
Predicting future price movements is always a challenge for traders and investors. However, by using historical data and statistical analysis, it is possible to make educated guesses about the likelihood of certain outcomes. One such tool for predicting future prices is the Price Extrapolator with Standard Deviation Cones. This custom indicator, can help you visualize potential price movements and their associated risks.
In this post, we will explain how the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones works, how to adjust its settings to suit your needs, and how to interpret its output. By the end of this article, you should have a better understanding of how this powerful tool can help you make more informed decisions when trading or investing in financial markets.
Understanding the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones
The Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones is a custom indicator that uses historical price data to calculate the average log return and standard deviation of log returns over a specified period. It then uses this information to extrapolate a series of future price points, as well as upper and lower standard deviation bands that form the "deviation cones."
The average log return represents the expected price change, while the standard deviation of log returns provides a measure of the uncertainty or risk associated with the prediction. The deviation cones can help you visualize the range of potential price movements and assess the likelihood of different outcomes.
Configuring the Indicator
To use the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones, you will need to configure several input settings:
1. Length: This setting determines the number of historical data points used to calculate the average log return and standard deviation of log returns. A higher value will produce a smoother, less sensitive indicator, while a lower value will make the indicator more responsive to recent price changes.
2. Number of Future Price Points: This setting controls the number of future price points to extrapolate. Increasing this value will extend the deviation cones further into the future.
3. Multiplier: This setting adjusts the tightness of the deviation cones by controlling the standard deviation multiplier. A higher value will result in wider cones, indicating greater uncertainty, while a lower value will produce narrower cones, suggesting more confidence in the prediction.
Interpreting the Output
After configuring the indicator, you will see the following output on your chart:
1. Green Line: This line represents the extrapolated future price points based on the average log return. It provides a central estimate of potential price movements.
2. Red Lines: These lines form the upper and lower bounds of the deviation cones. They represent the range of potential price movements, taking into account the uncertainty associated with the prediction.
When using the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones, it is essential to remember that the output is only a prediction based on historical data and should not be taken as a guarantee of future price movements. However, by providing a visual representation of potential price movements and their associated risks, this indicator can help you make more informed decisions when trading or investing in financial markets.
The Extreme Limitations of the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones
While the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones can be a valuable addition to your trading toolbox, it is essential to recognize its limitations. As with any forecasting tool, it is not infallible and should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis. In this section, we will discuss the extreme limitations of this indicator and provide insight into how to use it effectively despite these constraints.
1. Reliance on Historical Data
The Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones relies heavily on historical price data to make its predictions. While this can provide valuable insights into past trends and patterns, it may not accurately predict future price movements in a constantly changing market.
Market conditions can change rapidly, and historical data may not be a reliable indicator of future performance. Economic events, geopolitical tensions, and changes in market sentiment can all influence price movements in ways that may not be captured by historical data alone.
2. Assumption of Lognormal Distribution
The indicator assumes that price returns follow a lognormal distribution, which may not always be the case. Financial markets can exhibit skewness and kurtosis, resulting in distributions that are not symmetrical or normally distributed. This can lead to inaccurate predictions and a false sense of security when relying on the deviation cones.
3. No Consideration of Fundamental Factors
The Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones is a purely technical analysis tool, meaning it does not take into account fundamental factors that can influence price movements. Changes in company earnings, interest rates, or economic data can significantly impact asset prices and may not be factored into the indicator's predictions.
4. Limited Time Horizon
The indicator only provides predictions for a limited number of future price points, which may not be sufficient for long-term investors or traders with longer holding periods. Additionally, the accuracy of the predictions may decrease as the time horizon extends, due to the compounding effects of uncertainty and the limitations of historical data.
5. Potential for Overfitting
When adjusting the settings of the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones, there is a risk of overfitting the model to the historical data. This can result in an indicator that appears to have excellent predictive power on past data but performs poorly on unseen, future data. It is crucial to be cautious when optimizing the settings and use out-of-sample testing to validate the indicator's performance.
Using the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones Effectively
Despite these limitations, the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones can still be a valuable tool when used correctly. To use this indicator effectively, consider the following tips:
1. Supplement with Other Forms of Analysis: Use the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones alongside other technical and fundamental analysis methods to gain a more comprehensive understanding of potential price movements.
2. Diversify your Trading Strategies: Do not rely solely on the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones for your trading decisions. Instead, diversify your strategies and consider multiple indicators and methods to reduce the risk of overreliance on a single tool.
3. Be Cautious with Optimized Settings: When adjusting the indicator's settings, be mindful of the risk of overfitting and validate the performance with out-of-sample testing.
4. Keep an Eye on Market Conditions: Stay informed about current market conditions, economic events, and news that may impact your trading decisions. This will help you make more informed decisions when using the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones.
In conclusion, the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones is a powerful and versatile tool that can aid traders and investors in predicting potential future price movements. However, it is crucial to remember that this indicator has its limitations, which stem from its reliance on historical data, the assumption of lognormal distribution, its disregard for fundamental factors, limited time horizons, and the potential for overfitting. Despite these constraints, when used correctly and in conjunction with other forms of analysis, the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones can provide valuable insights and assist in making more informed trading and investing decisions.
By understanding the underlying mechanics of the indicator, adjusting its settings according to your needs, and being aware of its limitations, you can incorporate the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones into your trading arsenal effectively. Always remember that no single tool or indicator is infallible, and it is essential to use a diverse range of analysis methods and strategies to navigate the ever-changing financial markets successfully. Happy trading!
SuperTrend with Chebyshev FilterModified Super Trend with Chebyshev Filter
The Modified Super Trend is an innovative take on the classic Super Trend indicator. This advanced version incorporates a Chebyshev filter, which significantly enhances its capabilities by reducing false signals and improving overall signal quality. In this post, we'll dive deep into the Modified Super Trend, exploring its history, the benefits of the Chebyshev filter, and how it effectively addresses the challenges associated with smoothing, delay, and noise.
History of the Super Trend
The Super Trend indicator, developed by Olivier Seban, has been a popular tool among traders since its inception. It helps traders identify market trends and potential entry and exit points. The Super Trend uses average true range (ATR) and a multiplier to create a volatility-based trailing stop, providing traders with a dynamic tool that adapts to changing market conditions. However, the original Super Trend has its limitations, such as the tendency to produce false signals during periods of low volatility or sideways trading.
The Chebyshev Filter
The Chebyshev filter is a powerful mathematical tool that makes an excellent addition to the Super Trend indicator. It effectively addresses the issues of smoothing, delay, and noise associated with traditional moving averages. Chebyshev filters are named after Pafnuty Chebyshev, a renowned Russian mathematician who made significant contributions to the field of approximation theory.
The Chebyshev filter is capable of producing smoother, more responsive moving averages without introducing additional lag. This is possible because the filter minimizes the worst-case error between the ideal and the actual frequency response. There are two types of Chebyshev filters: Type I and Type II. Type I Chebyshev filters are designed to have an equiripple response in the passband, while Type II Chebyshev filters have an equiripple response in the stopband. The Modified Super Trend allows users to choose between these two types based on their preferences.
Overcoming the Challenges
The Modified Super Trend addresses several challenges associated with the original Super Trend:
Smoothing: The Chebyshev filter produces a smoother moving average without introducing additional lag. This feature is particularly beneficial during periods of low volatility or sideways trading, as it reduces the number of false signals.
Delay: The Chebyshev filter helps minimize the delay between price action and the generated signal, allowing traders to make timely decisions based on more accurate information.
Noise Reduction: The Chebyshev filter's ability to minimize the worst-case error between the ideal and actual frequency response reduces the impact of noise on the generated signals. This feature is especially useful when using the true range as an offset for the price, as it helps generate more reliable signals within a reasonable time frame.
The Great Replacement
The Modified Super Trend with Chebyshev filter is an excellent replacement for the original Super Trend indicator. It offers significant improvements in terms of signal quality, responsiveness, and accuracy. By incorporating the Chebyshev filter, the Modified Super Trend effectively reduces the number of false signals during low volatility or sideways trading, making it a more reliable tool for identifying market trends and potential entry and exit points.
In-Depth Guide to the Modified Super Trend Settings
The Modified Super Trend with Chebyshev filter offers a wide range of settings that allow traders to fine-tune the indicator to suit their specific trading styles and objectives. In this section, we will discuss each setting in detail, explaining its purpose and how to use it effectively.
Source
The source setting determines the price data used for calculations. The default setting is hl2, which calculates the average of the high and low prices. You can choose other price data sources such as close, open, or ohlc4 (average of open, high, low, and close prices) based on your preference.
Up Color and Down Color
These settings control the color of the trend line when the market is in an uptrend (up_color) and a downtrend (down_color). You can customize these colors to your liking, making it easier to visually identify the current market trend.
Text Color
This setting controls the color of the text displayed on the chart when using labels to indicate trend changes. You can choose any color that contrasts well with your chart background for better readability.
Mean Length
The mean_length setting determines the length (number of bars) used for the Chebyshev moving average calculation. A shorter length will make the moving average more responsive to price changes, while a longer length will produce a smoother moving average. It is crucial to find the right balance between responsiveness and smoothness, as a too-short length may generate false signals, while a too-long length might produce lagging signals. The default value is 64, but you can experiment with different values to find the optimal setting for your trading strategy.
Mean Ripple
The mean_ripple setting influences the Chebyshev filter's ripple effect in the passband (Type I) or stopband (Type II). The ripple effect represents small oscillations in the frequency response, which can impact the moving average's smoothness. The default value is 0.01, but you can experiment with different values to find the best balance between smoothness and responsiveness.
Chebyshev Type: Type I or Type II
The style setting allows you to choose between Type I and Type II Chebyshev filters. Type I filters have an equiripple response in the passband, while Type II filters have an equiripple response in the stopband. Depending on your preference for smoothness and responsiveness, you can choose the type that best fits your trading style.
ATR Style
The atr_style setting determines the method used for calculating the Average True Range (ATR). By default (false), it uses the traditional high-low range. When set to true, it uses the absolute difference between the open and close prices. You can choose the method that works best for your trading strategy and the market you are trading.
ATR Length
The atr_length setting controls the length (number of bars) used for calculating the ATR. Similar to the mean_length, a shorter length will make the ATR more responsive to price changes, while a longer length will produce a smoother ATR. The default value is 64, but you can experiment with different values to find the optimal setting for your trading strategy.
ATR Ripple
The atr_ripple setting, like the mean_ripple, influences the ripple effect of the Chebyshev filter used in the ATR calculation. The default value is 0.05, but you can experiment with different values to find the best balance between smoothness and responsiveness.
Multiplier
The multiplier setting determines the factor by which the ATR is multiplied before being added
Super Trend Logic and Signal Optimization
The Modified Super Trend with Chebyshev filter is designed to minimize false signals and provide a clear indication of market trends. It does so by using a combination of moving averages, Average True Range (ATR), and a multiplier. In this section, we will discuss the Super Trend's logic, its ability to prevent false signals, and the early warning crosses added to the indicator.
Super Trend Logic
The Super Trend's logic is based on a combination of the Chebyshev moving average and ATR. The Chebyshev moving average is a smooth moving average that effectively filters out market noise, while the ATR is a measure of market volatility.
The Super Trend is calculated by adding or subtracting a multiple of the ATR from the Chebyshev moving average. The multiplier is a user-defined value that determines the distance between the trend line and the price action. A larger multiplier results in a wider channel, reducing the likelihood of false signals but potentially missing out on valid trend changes.
Preventing False Signals
The Super Trend is designed to minimize false signals by maintaining its trend direction until a significant change in the market occurs. In a downtrend, the trend line will only decrease in value, and in an uptrend, it will only increase. This helps prevent false signals caused by temporary price fluctuations or market noise.
When the price crosses the trend line, the Super Trend does not immediately change its direction. Instead, it employs a safety logic to ensure that the trend change is genuine. The safety logic checks if the new trend line (calculated using the updated moving average and ATR) is more extreme than the previous one. If it is, the trend line is updated; otherwise, the previous trend line is maintained. This mechanism further reduces the likelihood of false signals by ensuring that the trend line only changes when there is a significant shift in the market.
Early Warning Crosses
To provide traders with additional insight, the Modified Super Trend with Chebyshev filter includes early warning crosses. These crosses are plotted on the chart when the price crosses the trend line without the safety logic. Although these crosses do not necessarily indicate a trend change, they can serve as a valuable heads-up for traders to monitor the market closely and prepare for potential trend reversals.
In conclusion, the Modified Super Trend with Chebyshev filter offers a significant improvement over the original Super Trend indicator. By incorporating the Chebyshev filter, this modified version effectively addresses the challenges of smoothing, delay, and noise reduction while minimizing false signals. The wide range of customizable settings allows traders to tailor the indicator to their specific needs, while the inclusion of early warning crosses provides valuable insight into potential trend reversals.
Ultimately, the Modified Super Trend with Chebyshev filter is an excellent tool for traders looking to enhance their trend identification and decision-making abilities. With its advanced features, this indicator can help traders navigate volatile markets with confidence, making more informed decisions based on accurate, timely information.
Probability Envelopes (PBE)Introduction
In the world of trading, technical analysis is vital for making informed decisions about the future direction of an asset's price. One such tool is the use of indicators, mathematical calculations that can help traders predict market trends. This article delves into an innovative indicator called the Probability Envelopes Indicator, which offers valuable insights into the potential price levels an asset may reach based on historical data. This in-depth look explores the statistical foundations of the indicator, highlighting its key components and benefits.
Section 1: Calculating Price Movements with Log Returns and Percentages
The Probability Envelopes Indicator provides the option to use either log returns or percentage changes when calculating price movements. Each method has its advantages:
Log Returns: These are calculated as the natural logarithm of the ratio of the current price to the previous price. Log returns are considered more stable and less sensitive to extreme price fluctuations.
Percentage Changes: These are calculated as the percentage difference between the current price and the previous price. They are simpler to interpret and easier to understand for most traders.
Section 2: Understanding Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation
The Probability Envelopes Indicator utilizes various statistical measures to analyze historical price movements:
Mean: This is the average of a set of numbers. In the context of this indicator, it represents the average price movement for bullish (green) and bearish (red) scenarios.
Variance: This measure represents the dispersion of data points in a dataset. A higher variance indicates a greater spread of data points from the mean. Variance is calculated as the average of the squared differences from the mean.
Standard Deviation: This is the square root of the variance. It is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion in a dataset. In the context of this indicator, standard deviations are used to calculate the width of the bands around the expected mean.
Section 3: Analyzing Historical Price Movements and Probabilities
The Probability Envelopes Indicator examines historical price movements and calculates probabilities based on their frequency:
The indicator first identifies and categorizes price movements into bullish (green) and bearish (red) scenarios.
It then calculates the probability of each price movement occurring by dividing the frequency of the movement by the total number of occurrences in each category (bullish or bearish).
The expected green and red movements are calculated by multiplying the probabilities by their respective price movements and summing the results.
The total expected movement, or weighted average, is calculated by combining the expected green and red movements and dividing by the total number of occurrences.
Section 4: Constructing the Probability Envelopes
The Probability Envelopes Indicator utilizes the calculated statistics to construct its bands:
The expected mean is calculated using the total expected movement and applied to the current open price.
An exponential moving average (EMA) is used to smooth the expected mean, with the smoothing length determining the degree of responsiveness.
The upper and lower bands are calculated by adding and subtracting the mean green and red movements, respectively, along with their standard deviations multiplied by a user-defined multiplier.
Section 5: Benefits of the Probability Envelopes Indicator
The Probability Envelopes Indicator offers numerous advantages to traders:
Enhanced Decision-Making: By providing probability-based estimations of future price levels, the indicator can help traders make more informed decisions and potentially improve their trading strategies.
Versatility: The indicator is applicable to various financial instruments, such as stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, making it a valuable tool for traders in different markets.
Customization: The indicator's parameters, including the use of log returns, multiplier values, and smoothing length, can be adjusted according to the user's preferences and trading style. This flexibility allows traders to fine-tune the Probability Envelopes Indicator to better suit their needs and goals.
Risk Management: The Probability Envelopes Indicator can be used as a component of a risk management strategy by providing insight into potential price movements. By identifying potential areas of support and resistance, traders can set stop-loss and take-profit levels more effectively.
Visualization: The graphical representation of the indicator, with its clear upper and lower bands, makes it easy for traders to quickly assess the market and potential price levels.
Section 6: Integrating the Probability Envelopes Indicator into Your Trading Strategy
When incorporating the Probability Envelopes Indicator into your trading strategy, consider the following tips:
Confirmation Signals: Use the indicator in conjunction with other technical analysis tools, such as trend lines, moving averages, or oscillators, to confirm the strength and direction of the market trend.
Timeframes: Experiment with different timeframes to find the optimal settings for your trading strategy. Keep in mind that shorter timeframes may generate more frequent signals but may also increase the likelihood of false signals.
Risk Management: Always establish a proper risk management strategy that includes setting stop-loss and take-profit levels, as well as managing your position sizes.
Backtesting: Test the Probability Envelopes Indicator on historical data to evaluate its effectiveness and fine-tune its parameters to optimize your trading strategy.
Section 7: Cons and Limitations of the Probability Envelopes Indicator
While the Probability Envelopes Indicator offers several advantages to traders, it is essential to be aware of its potential cons and limitations. Understanding these can help you make better-informed decisions when incorporating the indicator into your trading strategy.
Lagging Nature: The Probability Envelopes Indicator is primarily based on historical data and price movements. As a result, it may be less responsive to real-time changes in market conditions, and the predicted price levels may not always accurately reflect the market's current state. This lagging nature can lead to late entry and exit signals.
False Signals: As with any technical analysis tool, the Probability Envelopes Indicator can generate false signals. These occur when the indicator suggests a potential price movement, but the market does not follow through. It is crucial to use other technical analysis tools to confirm the signals and minimize the impact of false signals on your trading decisions.
Complex Statistical Concepts: The Probability Envelopes Indicator relies on complex statistical concepts and calculations, which may be challenging to grasp for some traders, particularly beginners. This complexity can lead to misunderstandings and misuse of the indicator if not adequately understood.
Overemphasis on Past Data: While historical data can be informative, relying too heavily on past performance to predict future movements can be limiting. Market conditions can change rapidly, and relying solely on past data may not provide an accurate representation of the current market environment.
No Guarantees: The Probability Envelopes Indicator, like all technical analysis tools, cannot guarantee success. It is essential to approach trading with realistic expectations and understand that no indicator or strategy can provide foolproof results.
To overcome these limitations, it is crucial to combine the Probability Envelopes Indicator with other technical analysis tools and utilize a comprehensive risk management strategy. By doing so, you can better understand the market and increase your chances of success in the ever-changing financial markets.
Section 8: Probability Envelopes Indicator vs. Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands and the Probability Envelopes Indicator are both technical analysis tools designed to identify potential support and resistance levels, as well as potential trend reversals. However, they differ in their underlying concepts, calculations, and applications. This section will provide a deep dive into the differences between these two indicators and how they can complement each other in a trading strategy.
Underlying Concepts and Calculations:
Bollinger Bands:
Bollinger Bands are based on a simple moving average (SMA) of the price data, with upper and lower bands plotted at a specified number of standard deviations away from the SMA.
The distance between the bands widens during periods of increased price volatility and narrows during periods of low volatility, indicating potential trend reversals or breakouts.
The standard settings for Bollinger Bands typically involve a 20-period SMA and a 2 standard deviation distance for the upper and lower bands.
Probability Envelopes Indicator:
The Probability Envelopes Indicator calculates the expected price movements based on historical data and probabilities, utilizing mean and standard deviation calculations for both upward and downward price movements.
It generates upper and lower bands based on the calculated expected mean movement and the standard deviation of historical price changes, multiplied by a user-defined multiplier.
The Probability Envelopes Indicator also allows users to choose between using log returns or percentage changes for the calculations, adding flexibility to the indicator.
Key Differences:
Calculation Method: Bollinger Bands are based on a simple moving average and standard deviations, while the Probability Envelopes Indicator uses statistical probability calculations derived from historical price changes.
Flexibility: The Probability Envelopes Indicator allows users to choose between log returns or percentage changes and adjust the multiplier, offering more customization options compared to Bollinger Bands.
Risk Management: Bollinger Bands primarily focus on volatility, while the Probability Envelopes Indicator incorporates probability calculations to provide additional insights into potential price movements, which can be helpful for risk management purposes.
Complementary Use:
Using both Bollinger Bands and the Probability Envelopes Indicator in your trading strategy can offer valuable insights into market conditions and potential price levels.
Bollinger Bands can provide insights into market volatility and potential breakouts or trend reversals based on the widening or narrowing of the bands.
The Probability Envelopes Indicator can offer additional information on the expected price movements based on historical data and probabilities, which can be helpful in anticipating potential support and resistance levels.
Combining these two indicators can help traders to better understand market dynamics and increase their chances of identifying profitable trading opportunities.
In conclusion, while both Bollinger Bands and the Probability Envelopes Indicator aim to identify potential support and resistance levels, they differ significantly in their underlying concepts, calculations, and applications. By understanding these differences and incorporating both tools into your trading strategy, you can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the market and make more informed trading decisions.
In conclusion, the Probability Envelopes Indicator is a powerful and versatile technical analysis tool that offers unique insights into expected price movements based on historical data and probability calculations. It provides traders with the ability to identify potential support and resistance levels, as well as potential trend reversals. When compared to Bollinger Bands, the Probability Envelopes Indicator offers more customization options and incorporates probability-based calculations for a different perspective on market dynamics.
Although the Probability Envelopes Indicator has its limitations and potential cons, such as the reliance on historical data and the assumption that past performance is indicative of future results, it remains a valuable addition to any trader's toolkit. By using the Probability Envelopes Indicator in conjunction with other technical analysis tools, such as Bollinger Bands, traders can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the market and make more informed trading decisions.
Ultimately, the success of any trading strategy relies on the ability to interpret and apply multiple indicators effectively. The Probability Envelopes Indicator serves as a unique and valuable tool in this regard, providing traders with a deeper understanding of the market and its potential price movements. By utilizing this indicator in combination with other tools and techniques, traders can increase their chances of success and optimize their trading strategies.
Real VIXReal VIX is showing us what we can expect from the volatility index. When Real VIX is falling, that means that market volatility will fall and there will be good uptrend.
When Real VIX is rising, that means that volatility will rise, and you can expect huge market movements
This code calculates the "Real VIX" indicator, which is a measure of market volatility. It uses data from various sources, including the High Yield Corporate Bond Index (HYG), the US Dollar Index (DXY), and various US Treasury bond yields, as well as the USDCAD currency pair.
The formula for Real VIX is complex, but it essentially calculates the difference between the current value of the VIX (a commonly used measure of market volatility) and a smoothed version of the VIX. This difference is then plotted on a chart, with green indicating that the market is less volatile than the smoothed version of the VIX suggests, and red indicating that the market is more volatile than expected.
The code also includes a warning for when the Real VIX falls below zero, which suggests that a recession may be on the horizon.
Stophunt WickAcknowledgement
This indicator is dedicated to my friend Alexandru who saved me from one of these liquidation raids which almost liquidated me.
Alexandru is one of the best scalpers out there and he always nails his entries at the tip of these wicks.
This inspired me to create this indicator.
What's a Liquidation Wick?
It's that fast stop-hunting wick that stophunts everyone by triggering their stop-loss and liquidation.
Liquidity is the lifeblood of stock market and liquidation is the process that moves price.
This indicator will identify when a liquidity pool is getting raided to trigger buy or sell stops, they are also know as stop-hunts.
How does it work?
When market consolidates in one direction, it builds up liquidity zones.
Market maker will break out of these consolidation phases by having dramatic price action to either pump or dump to raid these liquidity zones.
This is also called stop-hunts or liquidity raids. After that it will start reversing back to the opposite direction.
This is most noticeable by the length of the wick of a given candle in a very short amount of time and the total size of the candle.
This indicator highlights them accordingly.
Settings
Wick and Candle ratio works with default values but finetune will enhance user experience and usability.
Wick Ratio: Size of the wick compared to body of a candle.
Adjust this to higher ratio on smaller timeframe or smaller ratio on bigger timeframe to your trading style to spot a trend reversal.
Candle Ratio: The size of the candle, by default it is 0.75% of the current price.
For example, if BTC is at 20,000 then the size of the candle has to be minimum 150.
This can be fine tuned to bigger candle size on higher time frames or smaller for shorter timeframe depending on the trade type.
How to use it?
This indicator will identify when a liquidity pool is getting raided to trigger buy or sell stops, they are also know as stop-hunts. It can be used of its own for scalping but there are also a good few indicators which would most definitely help to confluence bigger timeframe trades.
Scalp
This indicator shows the most chaotic moments in price action; therefore it works best on smaller timeframes, ideally 3 or 5 minute candle.
- Wait for the market to start pumping or dumping.
- Current candle will change colour (Bullish/Bearish).
- Enter trade as soon as price starts to reverse back.
- Place the stop-loss outside of the current candle.
- Wait for the Liquidation Wick to appear as confirmation.
Price is very chaotic during a liquidity stop-hunt raid but there is a saying:
"In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity" - Sun-Tzu
Since this is a very high risk, high reward strategy; it is advised to practice on paper trade first.
Practice until perfection and this indicator would be the perfect bread and butter scalp confirmation.
Fair Value Gap
FVG strategy is the most accurate in conjunction with this indicator.
Normally price would reverse after consuming fair value gaps but often it's difficult to know when and where.
This indicator would identify those crucial entry points for reverse course direction of the price action.
Support and Resistance
This indicator can also be used in conjunction with support and resistance lines.
Generally the stophunt will go deep below the support or spike much further up the resistance lines to liquidate positions.
Bollinger Bands
Bolling Bands strategy would be to wait until the price breaks out of the band.
Once the wick is formed, it would be an ideal entry point.
Script change
This is an open-source script and feel free to modify according to your need and to amplify your existing strategy.
JS-TechTrading: Supertrend-Strategy_Basic versionAre you looking for a reliable and profitable algorithmic trading strategy for TradingView? If so, you might be interested in our Supertrend basic strategy, which is based on three powerful indicators: Supertrend (ATR), RSI and EMA.
Supertrend is a trend-following indicator that helps you identify the direction and strength of the market. It also gives you clear signals for entry and exit points based on price movements.
RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It helps you filter out false signals and avoid overbought or oversold conditions.
EMA is a moving average indicator that smooths out price fluctuations and shows you the long-term trend of the market. It helps you confirm the validity of your trades and avoid trading against the trend.
Our Supertrend basic strategy combines these three indicators to give you a simple yet effective way to trade any market. Here's how it works:
- For long trades, you enter when the price is above Supertrend and pulls back below it (the low of the candle crosses Supertrend) and then rebounds above it (the high of the next candle goes above the pullback candle). You exit when the price closes below Supertrend or when you reach your target profit or stop loss.
- For short trades, you enter when the price is below Supertrend and pulls back above it (the high of the candle crosses Supertrend) and then drops below it (the low of the next candle goes below the pullback candle). You exit when the price closes above Supertrend or when you reach your target profit or stop loss.
- You can also use RSI and EMA filters to improve your results. For long trades, you only enter if RSI is above 50 and price is above 200 EMA. For short trades, you only enter if RSI is below 50 and price is below 200 EMA.
- You can set your stop loss and target profit as a percentage of your entry price or based on other criteria. You can also adjust the parameters of each indicator according to your preferences and risk tolerance.
Our Supertrend basic strategy is easy to use and has been tested on various markets and time frames. It can help you capture consistent profits while minimizing your losses.
Bollinger Bands %B (ValueRay)One of the key features of this BB%B is its ability to highlight overbought and oversold conditions. This allows you to make informed decisions on when to enter and exit a trade, helping you maximize your profits and minimize your losses.
- Bollinger Bands %B with the ability to change to a different Time Frame.(Defaults to current Chart Time Frame).
- Ability To Turn On/Off Background Highlighting if BB %B is Above/Below 0 / 1 thresholds.
- Ability To Turn On/Off Background Highlighting when BB %B Crosses back above/unser 0/1 thresholds.
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My personal recommandation use: combine with CM_Ultimate RSI Multi Time Frame (ChrisMoody) and have solid oversold/overbought levels, when hes RSI and my BB %B are bot red/green
EMA + ATR Support and Resistance + Take Profit SignalThe 'EMA+ ATR Support Resistance Take Profit signal' indicator is a technical analysis tool designed to help traders identify potential support and resistance levels, using the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Average True Range (ATR) indicators. This indicator not only tracks the EMA and ATR but also plots these levels as support and resistance lines, providing useful insights into potential buy and sell points.
The indicator allows you to set the lengths for both the EMA and ATR, with default values set to 20 and 14, respectively. Moreover, you can specify the multiplier for the ATR in the Support/Resistance (S/R) length setting, which defaults to 2. The line width for the plotted lines can also be adjusted according to your preference.
The EMA line in center is invisible by default but you can change that by going to the setting of the indicator. The support and resistance lines are plotted in green and red, respectively. When the price hits the support or resistance levels, the indicator provides a visual signal with a cross shape below or above the respective bars, in lime and red, respectively. If you do not need the take profit signals you can disable them in the setting.
How to Use:
1. Define the EMA and ATR lengths according to your trading strategy. Higher lengths will provide smoother lines but may also lag the current price action.
2. Set the S/R length to determine the distance of the support and resistance lines from the EMA line. Higher values will place these lines further away from the EMA.
3. Monitor the chart for instances when the price hits the support or resistance levels. This is indicated by a cross shape below (for support hit) or above (for resistance hit) the price bar. These points may be considered as potential take profit points or entry/exit points, depending on your strategy.
4. Use the indicator in conjunction with other tools and indicators to confirm signals and reduce the risk of false signals. So the assumption is you enter a trade using your other indicators but you can rely on this indicator to remind you to take profit if you are long by a red cross of the resistance line and if you are short reminds you by a green cross on the support line.
Disclaimer: This indicator should not be used as the sole determinant for any investment decision. Always conduct thorough research and consider multiple factors before trading.
Vector CandlesTitle: Vector Candles Indicator with PVSRA
Short Description: Visualize climax and above-average volume candles using PVSRA method for trend reversals and significant moves.
Long Description:
The Vector Candles Indicator with PVSRA (Price, Volume, Support, and Resistance Analysis) is designed to help traders visualize climax and above-average volume candles on the chart, which can indicate potential trend reversals and significant market moves. This indicator is suitable for various financial instruments, including stocks, forex, and cryptocurrencies.
This script uses the PVSRA method to determine the candle colour based on volume and price action. By analysing the relationships between price, volume, and support/resistance levels, it allows traders to better understand the market dynamics and make informed decisions.
The indicator displays candles in different colours to represent the volume and price action:
Climax Up (Lime): Bullish candle with high volume
Climax Down (Red): Bearish candle with high volume
Above Average Up (Blue): Bullish candle with above-average volume
Above Average Down (Fuchsia): Bearish candle with above-average volume
Normal Up (Gray): Bullish candle with normal volume
Normal Down (Dark Gray): Bearish candle with normal volume
The script is designed to work on the TradingView platform and is based on original contributions by plasmapug, infernix, peshocore, and xtech5192. It has been modified RapidFireOG for easy integration into your trading setup.
Add this powerful tool to your chart and enhance your trading analysis with the Vector Candles Indicator with PVSRA.
Volatility Range Breakout Strategy [wbburgin]The "Volatility Range Breakout Strategy" uses deviations of high-low volatility to determine bullish and bearish breakouts.
HOW IT WORKS
The volatility function uses the high-low range of a lookback period, divided by the average of that range, to determine the likelihood that price will break in a specific direction.
High and low ranges are determined by the relative volatility compared to the current closing price. The high range, for example, is the (volatility * close) added to the close, the low range is this value subtracted by the close.
A volatility-weighted moving average is taken of these high and low ranges to form high and low bands.
Finally, breakouts are identified once the price closes above or below these bands. An upwards breakout (bullish) occurs when the price breaks above the upper band, while a downwards breakout (bearish) occurs when the price breaks below the lower band. Positions can be closed either by when the price falls out of its current band ("Range Crossover" in settings under 'Exit Type') or when the price falls below or above the volatility MA (default because this allows us to catch trends for longer).
INPUTS/SETTINGS
The AVERAGE LENGTH is the period for the volatility MA and the weighted volatility bands.
The VOLATILITY LENGTH is how far the lookback should be for highs/lows for the volatility calculation.
Enjoy! Let me know if you have any questions.
Bollinger Band ribbonThis indicator plots 9 upper and lower lines with increasing length. Lines are 0.618 upper and lower level of Bollinger band.
Momentum-Adjusted Volatility Ratio (MAVR)The Momentum-Adjusted Volatility Ratio (MAVR) indicator is designed to help you understand the strength of price movements relative to the market's volatility. It combines the concepts of rate of change (ROC) and average true range (ATR) and then calculates their ratio, which is then smoothed using an exponential moving average (EMA). Here's a general guide on how to use the MAVR indicator:
Identify the trend: Look for the overall direction of the EMA of the MAVR. When the EMA is above the zero line, it indicates that the momentum is positive and the trend is generally bullish. Conversely, when the EMA is below the zero line, it indicates that the momentum is negative, and the trend is generally bearish.
Assess momentum strength: Pay attention to the distance between the EMA of the MAVR and the zero line. A larger distance indicates a stronger momentum, while a smaller distance suggests weaker momentum. If the EMA of the MAVR moves further away from the zero line, it indicates that the price movement is becoming more robust relative to the market's volatility.
Look for potential entry and exit signals: When the EMA of the MAVR crosses the zero line, it could provide a potential trading signal. For instance, a cross from below to above the zero line may indicate a potential buying opportunity, while a cross from above to below the zero line may signal a potential selling opportunity. Keep in mind that the MAVR indicator should not be used in isolation, and it's essential to combine it with other technical analysis tools and risk management techniques.
Monitor for divergences: Sometimes, the price and the EMA of the MAVR can show divergences. For example, if the price makes a higher high while the EMA of the MAVR makes a lower high, it could signal a bearish divergence, suggesting a potential trend reversal. Similarly, if the price makes a lower low while the EMA of the MAVR makes a higher low, it could indicate a bullish divergence, suggesting a possible trend reversal.
Remember that no indicator is perfect, and the MAVR should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and a solid trading strategy to increase the chances of success. Always use proper risk management techniques to protect your capital.
Swing Data - ADR% / RVol / PVol / Float % / Avg $ VolThis table presents consolidated data that swing traders can refer to quickly for their benefit. I am of the firm belief that the information provided in this uncomplicated table is precisely what you require to optimize your trading efficiency, and ultimately, profitability.
The data includes;
1. Market Capitalization - a measure of the total value of a publicly traded company's outstanding shares.
2. Float % - the percentage of a company's outstanding shares that are available for trading on the open market. It is calculated by dividing the number of a company's outstanding shares that are available for trading on the open market by the total number of outstanding shares. A lower float percentage generally means that there are fewer shares available for trading, which can lead to increased volatility in the stock price. On the other hand, a higher float percentage generally means that there are more shares available for trading, which can lead to greater stability in the stock price.
3. ADR% - a technical analysis indicator that measures the average daily price movement as a percentage of its current price. It is calculated by taking the difference between the average high and low prices for a time period, and then dividing it by the current price. The resulting value is then multiplied by 100 to give the ADR% for that day. The ADR% can be useful for traders to assess the potential volatility of a stock. A higher ADR% indicates a greater potential for price movement.
4. ATR - measures the range of price movements of an asset over a specified period of time, taking into account any gaps in price. It is calculated by taking the highest value of the following three values:
The difference between the current high and the current low
The absolute value of the difference between the current high and the previous close
The absolute value of the difference between the current low and the previous close
The resulting value is then averaged over the specified period of time to create the ATR value. This indicator is reflects the average volatility of the asset over the specified period of time.
5. LoD dist. - also refer to Low Of Day distance, a range level gauge of current price based on historical volatility of the price movement, in this case I use ATR. for the historical volatility. Please find below as example for the calculation.
eg. LoD dist. = 104%
Current price (A) = $24.49
Low Price (B) = $22.16
Difference (A) - (B) = $2.33
ATR = $2.25
LoD dist = $2.33 / $2.25 = 103.55% (round up to nearest whole number = 104%)
6. Average Daily $ Volume - used to measure the average amount of money that is traded in a stock or a security over a particular period of time, typically a day. It is calculated by multiplying the average daily trading volume of a security by its average price.
7. Average Daily Volume - used to measure the average no. of share that is traded in a stock or a security over a particular period of time, typically a day.
8. Projected Volume - an estimate of the total volume of trading activity that is expected to occur for the day (from the specific time data), based on an average volume over a specific period of time. Projected volume can be used by traders and investors to help make informed decisions about buying or selling securities, and can also be used as an indicator of market sentiment and volatility. However, it's important to note that projected volume is an estimate and actual trading activity may vary.
9. Relative Volume - a measure of the volume of a stock that is trading at the specific time, relative to its average trading volume over a longer period. It is expressed as a percentage and is often used by traders and investors to identify stocks that are trading with higher or lower than usual volume.
Yesterday’s High Breakout - Trend Following StrategyYesterday’s High Breakout it is a trading system based on the analysis of yesterday's highs, it works in trend-following mode therefore it opens a long position at the breakout of yesterday's highs even if they occur several times in one day.
There are several methods for exiting a trade, each with its own unique strategy. The first method involves setting Take-Profit and Stop-Loss percentages, while the second utilizes a trailing-stop with a specified offset value. The third method calls for a conditional exit when the candle closes below a reference EMA.
Additionally, operational filters can be applied based on the volatility of the currency pair, such as calculating the percentage change from the opening or incorporating a gap to the previous day's high levels. These filters help to anticipate or delay entry into the market, mitigating the risk of false breakouts.
In the specific case of NULS, a 9% Take-Profit and a 3% Stop-Loss were set, with an activated trailing-stop percentage. To postpone entry and avoid false breakouts, a 1% gap was added to the price of yesterday's highs.
Name : Yesterday's High Breakout - Trend Follower Strategy
Author : @tumiza999
Category : Trend Follower, Breakout of Yesterday's High.
Operating mode : Spot or Futures (only long).
Trade duration : Intraday.
Timeframe : 30M, 1H, 2H, 4H
Market : Crypto
Suggested usage : Short-term trading, when the market is in trend and it is showing high volatility.
Entry : When there is a breakout of Yesterday's High.
Exit : Profit target or Trailing stop, Stop loss or Crossunder EMA.
Configuration :
- Gap to anticipate or postpone the entry before or after the identified level
- Rate of Change for Entry Condition
- Take Profit, Stop Loss and Trailing Stop
- EMA length
Backtesting :
⁃ Exchange: BINANCE
⁃ Pair: NULSUSDT
⁃ Timeframe: 2H
⁃ Fee: 0.075%
⁃ Slippage: 1
- Initial Capital: 10000 USDT
- Position sizing: 10% of Equity
- Start : 2018-07-26 (Out Of Sample from 2022-12-23)
- Bar magnifier: on
Credits : LucF for Pine Coders (f_security function to avoid repainting using security)
Disclaimer : Risk Management is crucial, so adjust stop loss to your comfort level. A tight stop loss can help minimise potential losses. Use at your own risk.
How you or we can improve? Source code is open so share your ideas!
Leave a comment and smash the boost button!
Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community.
Adaptive Channel BreakoutIntroducing the "Adaptive Channel Breakout" indicator, an advanced charting tool that employs the acb function from the PeacefulIndicators library. This powerful indicator helps traders detect potential breakouts and trends by displaying an adaptive channel on the chart.
Key features of the Adaptive Channel Breakout indicator include:
Customizable input parameters: Adjust the moving average length, volatility length, and multiplier to suit your trading preferences and strategy.
Utilizes the acb function from the PeacefulIndicators library, which calculates the adaptive channel using a simple moving average (SMA) and standard deviation to measure volatility. The function also tracks the trend direction based on price crossovers and crossunders.
Clear visual representation: The adaptive channel is displayed as a linebr plot, with the color indicating the current trend direction (green for uptrends and red for downtrends).
Trend signals: The indicator includes up and down arrow labels that signify potential trend reversals, providing traders with valuable entry and exit points.
Overlay functionality: Designed to be displayed directly on the price chart for easy analysis and correlation with price action.
To use the Adaptive Channel Breakout indicator, simply add the script to your chart and customize the input parameters as needed.
Weighted VolatilityIntroducing the "Weighted Volatility" indicator, a powerful tool that incorporates the PeacefulIndicators library to measure the price volatility and volume in the market. This indicator is designed to help you detect potential opportunities and enhance your trading analysis.
The Weighted Volatility indicator offers the following features:
Adjustable input parameters, allowing you to modify the source (close by default) and the length parameter to suit your trading style and preferences.
A visually clear display, with the Weighted Volatility line in blue and a horizontal line at zero, making it easy to interpret the indicator's signals.
The core functionality of the Weighted Volatility indicator is powered by the weighted_volatility_oscillator function from the PeacefulIndicators library, ensuring accurate and reliable results.
To start using the Weighted Volatility indicator in your trading analysis, simply add the script to your chart and customize the input parameters as needed. We hope this script, built upon the PeacefulIndicators library, proves to be a valuable addition to your trading strategy.
Trend Reversal DetectionIntroducing the "Trend Reversal Detection" indicator, a sophisticated and user-friendly script that utilizes the PeacefulIndicators library to identify potential trend reversals in the market. This indicator is designed to help you stay ahead of market changes and enhance your trading analysis.
The Trend Reversal Detection indicator offers the following features:
Customizable input parameters, allowing you to adjust the Rate of Change (ROC) length, Moving Average (MA) length, and MA type (SMA, EMA, or WMA) according to your trading preferences and style.
A visually intuitive display, using orange and blue markers to indicate potential trend reversals, making it easy to interpret the indicator's signals.
The core functionality of the Trend Reversal Detection indicator is powered by the trendReversalDetection function from the PeacefulIndicators library, ensuring accurate and reliable reversal detection.
To start using the Trend Reversal Detection indicator in your trading analysis, simply add the script to your chart and customize the input parameters as needed. We hope this script, built upon the PeacefulIndicators library, proves to be a valuable addition to your trading strategy.
BitcoinSwingTrader 1-5-15minThis script can be used on various trading pairs and assets, including BTC/USDT, it has been observed to perform better on BTCUSDT due to its unique price behavior and volatility. The indicator is designed to identify potential support and resistance levels and generate buy or sell signals based on the relationship between price and a weighted average middle line, which is particularly effective on BTCUSDT. However, traders should exercise caution and consider additional factors such as market trends, news events, and risk management strategies when making trading decisions.
VIX Futures Spread StrategyThis script was an exercise in learning Pinescript and exploring the futures curve of the VIX in relation to SPY. Was deleted by TV, trying to republish it now with updated parameters for slippage and commission and a more detailed description.
"VIX Futures Spread Strategy" is a trading strategy that capitalizes on the spread between the 3-month VIX futures (VIX3M) and the spot VIX index. This strategy is based on the idea that the VIX futures spread can serve as a contrarian indicator of market sentiment, with extreme negative spreads potentially signaling oversold conditions and opportunities for long positions.
Ordinarily the VIX curve is in contango as futures contracts are priced at a premium to the current spot price and are used to hedge future uncertainty in the market. When the spot price of VIX spikes the curve can invert and enter backwardation; this strategy detects this condition and uses it as a trigger to open a long position in SPY. The spread going negative tends to correlate with excessive fear and uncertainty in the short term while expecting lower volatility in the long term, in this case 3 months out.
The strategy is designed to enter a long position when the VIX futures spread is negative and to exit the position when the spread rises above 3 -- when the curve is in contango again. The strategy employs a pyramiding approach, allowing up to 10 additional orders to be placed while the entry condition is met, with each order consisting of 10 contracts. This approach aims to maximize potential profits during periods of favorable market conditions.
In this strategy, the VIX futures spread is calculated as the difference between the 3-month VIX futures (VIX3M) and the spot VIX index. The spread is plotted as a histogram on the chart, with the zero line representing no spread, and horizontal lines at 0 and 3 indicating the entry and exit thresholds, respectively.
The strategy's backtesting settings use an initial capital of HKEX:10 ,000, a commission of 0.5% per trade, and a maximum of 10 pyramiding orders, and a slippage of 2 ticks.
Please note that this strategy is intended for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. Before using this strategy in live trading, make sure to thoroughly test and optimize its parameters to suit your risk tolerance and specific trading conditions.
Deviations from ARL (DARL)Similar to Bollinger Bands, this indicator uses standard deviations but from Adaptive Rebound Lines (See: 'ARL').
The adaptiveness of the 'ARL' is further affected by volatility and helps greatly in spotting the possible strength and direction of rebounds.
All this information is presented with minimal lag thanks to the rebound qualities of the 'ARL' adapting to market volatility.
----- HOW TO USE IT -----
1) Use with 1h time frame.
2) Smaller width typically means that price will be moving is smaller movements.
3) Small price movements while the width is increasing typically means that a large price move will occur soon.
4) Larger width typically means that price will be moving in larger movements.
5) Very large width with sideways price typically means that the price will have a bias towards the center.
Note: A V-Offset of 1 is also a good setting alternative for this indicator.
----- HOW THIS INDICATOR IS ORIGINAL; WHAT IT DOES AND HOW IT DOES IT -----
This indicator has an original, unique ability in anticipating the strength and direction of a price rebound while at the same time showing the bias of the rebound with minimal lag.
It does this by letting the adaptive qualities of the 'ARL' be affected by market volatility, not just by price movement alone.
----- VERSION -----
This indicator is not a variation, replacement, or presentation of the 'ARL' or the 'ARL' Bands -- it merely derives its base calculations for standard deviations from the 'ARL'.
However, this indicator affects the calculations of the standard 'ARL' with volatility and creates a new, unique calculation.
It thus presents a totally different context for price action.
A standard 'ARL' helps in finding possible rebounds but it does not help in finding the strength of them or the directional bias of a rebound.
This is because a standard 'ARL' is more negligent of market volatility and adapts to price movement alone.
In contrast, this indicator does help in anticipating the strength and direction of the rebound because it adapts deviations from an 'ARL' to market volatility.
Therefore, the lines cannot be adjusted individually but in pairs and only further from their respective, mirroring lines.
