The Strat Candle State Table (Two Symbols)The Strat Candle State Table (Two Symbols) – Multi-Timeframe Analysis
This advanced indicator is designed for traders who follow The Strat methodology, providing a quick, clear, and actionable view of candle states across two selected symbols and a chosen timeframe. It allows you to seamlessly integrate multi-symbol analysis into your trading, offering real-time insights into price action and market momentum based on **The Strat’s** powerful principles.
What It Does:
For each selected symbol, the indicator retrieves and analyzes the price data for three candles:
- Candle 1 (C1): The third candle from the current one.
- Candle 2 (C2): The candle directly before the current one (previous candle).
- Current Candle (CC): The live candle, which is still forming.
Using this information, it plots the Scenario 1 (Inside Bar), Scenario 2 (Directional), and **Scenario 3 (Outside Bar)** states for each candle, color-coding them to help you quickly assess market conditions and price action.
Strat Candle States:
- Scenario 1 (Inside Bar): The candle stays within the high and low of the previous candle (indicating consolidation or indecision).
- Scenario 2 (Directional)* The candle breaks either the high (2-up) or low (2-down) of the previous candle, indicating potential continuation in that direction.
- Scenario 3 (Outside Bar): The candle breaks both the high and low of the previous candle, signaling increased volatility and a potential reversal.
Customizable Color Scheme:
The default colors follow these settings (but can be changed to your preference):
- 1U (Inside and Up): Yellow (indicating an inside bar that closed higher).
- 1D (Inside and Down): Orange (indicating an inside bar that closed lower).
- 2U (Two Up): Green if the candle closes higher, Red if the candle closes lower (conflict).
- 2D (Two Down): Red if the candle closes lower, Green if the candle closes higher (conflict).
- 3U (Three Up): Lighter Purple.
- 3D (Three Down): Darker Purple/Magenta.
Each state is dynamically updated based on the actual price action and whether the candle closes above or below the open. Conflict candles (like a 2-up closing red or 2-down closing green) are highlighted, making it easier to spot potential reversals or weakness in the trend.
Timeframe Flexibility:
You can overlay this indicator on any chart regardless of the timeframe. The key is to select the timeframe you want the indicator to plot for when setting up. Whether you're working on a 5-minute chart, daily, or even weekly, the indicator will analyze the candles according to the selected timeframe, giving you the versatility to adapt it to various trading strategies.
Powerful Use Cases:
1. Multi-Symbol Analysis in Real-Time: The Strat Candle State Table displays the candle states for two symbols at once, helping you track multiple instruments without switching charts. This is extremely useful when monitoring correlated assets like SPY and QQQ, or sector-related pairs such as DIA and IWM
2. Seamless Top-Down View: By analyzing the three most recent candles (C1, C2, and the current candle), the indicator allows you to maintain a top-down perspective on price action, spotting setups early and tracking candle state changes across different symbols and timeframes.
3. Enhanced Conflict Detection: The background shading automatically adjusts for conflict candles, such as a 2-up that closes red or a 2-down that closes green. This provides a quick visual cue to warn you when the current trend may be weakening or reversing.
4. Trade Execution Precision: With this table providing constant feedback on price action and candle state, traders can more easily time their entries and exits, whether they are looking for reversals or continuations
5. Focus on Timeframe Continuity: Use this indicator to stay in alignment with The Strat's Timeframe Continuity, ensuring you are trading in the direction of the most aligned candles, across both symbols. This allows for more precise trade management and higher-probability setups.
6. Customizable to Your Strategy: Change the color coding and candle states to match your personal preferences or trading strategy, making this indicator adaptable to your specific needs.
Most Powerful Use Case – Simultaneous Break Detection:
The Strat Candle State Table shines in setups where simultaneous breaks are being monitored across multiple symbols. For example, if both symbols trigger a 2-up or 3-up at the same time, this confirms that momentum is flowing in the same direction for multiple instruments, giving you stronger trade conviction.
By seeing real-time data for two key symbols, you can ensure that you're catching simultaneous breaks, where multiple instruments are signaling the same move. This can be especially effective in index-based trading, where the strength or weakness of multiple sectors or assets must align for a higher probability of success
Sentiment
Connors RSI with Down GapThe Connors RSI with Down Gap indicator is a technical tool designed to support Larry Connors' Terror Gap Strategy, which is part of his broader framework outlined in the book "Buy the Fear, Sell the Greed: 7 Behavioral Quant Strategies for Traders." This specific indicator integrates the ConnorsRSI calculation with a focus on detecting down gaps in price, providing insights into moments when panic selling may occur.
The ConnorsRSI
ConnorsRSI is a composite indicator developed by Larry Connors that combines three core components:
RSI: A short-term relative strength index measuring the speed and magnitude of price changes.
Streak RSI: Tracks consecutive up or down closes to assess momentum.
Percent Rank: Evaluates how the current close ranks in relation to past prices.
When combined, these three elements provide a nuanced view of short-term overbought or oversold conditions. ConnorsRSI readings below a certain threshold (commonly 30 or lower) suggest that the asset has been heavily sold, indicating potential exhaustion of selling pressure.
Behavioral Finance Insights
The Terror Gap Strategy is grounded in principles from behavioral finance, which studies how psychological factors affect market participants' decision-making. Specifically, the indicator exploits the fear and irrational behavior that often arise when traders face persistent losses, especially after a down gap. According to behavioral finance theories like prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979), people tend to overreact to losses, leading to panic selling. This creates opportunities for contrarian traders who understand the psychology behind these market movements.
The ConnorsRSI with Down Gap indicator works because it identifies:
Overextended selling through the ConnorsRSI, where persistent price declines result in low RSI values (indicating panic).
Gap down days, where the opening price is below the previous day’s close, typically amplifying the sense of loss and fear for traders already in losing positions.
Why This Indicator Works
The psychology of losses makes traders more prone to selling during periods of fear, especially when confronted with a gap down after sustained price declines. This indicator, by combining ConnorsRSI with down gaps, offers a quantitative way to spot these moments of panic. Traders can take advantage of these signals to enter positions when the market is in a state of fear, often when there is potential for a reversion to the mean.
Indicator Mechanics
In the current implementation:
The ConnorsRSI is calculated using three components: a short-term RSI, streak RSI, and percent rank.
When the ConnorsRSI drops below a user-defined lower threshold, the indicator highlights oversold conditions.
If there is a down gap (open price lower than the previous close) and the ConnorsRSI is below the threshold, a label is displayed, signaling a potential opportunity to buy.
Practical Use and Application
For traders looking to implement the Terror Gap Strategy, this indicator provides a clear visual cue (via background coloring and labels) when conditions are ripe for a contrarian trade. It can be particularly useful for traders who thrive on taking advantage of fear-driven sell-offs.
However, to fully understand and apply this strategy effectively, it is recommended to purchase Larry Connors' book "Buy the Fear, Sell the Greed." The book provides detailed explanations of how to execute the strategy with precision, including insights into exit conditions, scaling into positions, and managing risk.
Conclusion
The ConnorsRSI with Down Gap indicator combines quantitative analysis with behavioral finance principles to exploit fear-driven market behavior. By utilizing this tool within a disciplined trading strategy, traders can potentially profit from temporary market inefficiencies caused by panic selling.
References
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Connors, L. (2013). Buy the Fear, Sell the Greed: 7 Behavioral Quant Strategies for Traders.
This indicator can be a valuable asset, but understanding its proper use within a broader strategy framework is essential. Purchasing Connors' book is a recommended step toward mastering the approach.
Larry Conners SMTP StrategyThe Spent Market Trading Pattern is a strategy developed by Larry Connors, typically used for short-term mean reversion trading. This strategy takes advantage of the exhaustion in market momentum by entering trades when the market is perceived as "spent" after extended trends or extreme moves, expecting a short-term reversal. Connors uses indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) and price action patterns to identify these opportunities.
Key Elements of the Strategy:
Overbought/Oversold Conditions: The strategy looks for extreme overbought or oversold conditions, often indicated by low RSI values (below 30 for oversold and above 70 for overbought).
Mean Reversion: Connors believed that markets, especially in short-term scenarios, tend to revert to the mean after periods of strong momentum. The "spent" market is assumed to have expended its energy, making a reversal likely.
Entry Signals:
In an uptrend, a stock or market index making a significant number of consecutive up days (e.g., 5-7 consecutive days with higher closes) indicates overbought conditions.
In a downtrend, a similar number of consecutive down days indicates oversold conditions.
Reversal Anticipation: Once an extreme in price movement is identified (such as consecutive gains or losses), the strategy places trades anticipating a reversion to the mean, which is usually the 5-day or 10-day moving average.
Exit Points: Trades are exited when prices move back toward their mean or when the extreme conditions dissipate, usually based on RSI or moving average thresholds.
Why the Strategy Works:
Human Psychology: The strategy capitalizes on the fact that markets, in the short term, often behave irrationally due to the emotions of traders—fear and greed lead to overextended moves.
Mean Reversion Tendency: Financial markets often exhibit mean-reverting behavior, where prices temporarily deviate from their historical norms but eventually return. Short-term exhaustion after a strong rally or sell-off offers opportunities for quick profits.
Overextended Moves: Markets that rise or fall too quickly tend to become overextended, as buyers or sellers get exhausted, making reversals more probable. Connors’ approach identifies these moments when the market is "spent" and ripe for a reversal.
Risks of the Spent Market Trading Pattern Strategy:
Trend Continuation: One of the key risks is that the market may not revert as expected and instead continues in the same direction. In trending markets, mean-reversion strategies can suffer because strong trends can last longer than anticipated.
False Signals: The strategy relies heavily on technical indicators like RSI, which can produce false signals in volatile or choppy markets. There can be times when a market appears "spent" but continues in its current direction.
Market Timing: Mean reversion strategies often require precise market timing. If the entry or exit points are mistimed, it can lead to losses, especially in short-term trades where small price movements can significantly impact profitability.
High Transaction Costs: This strategy requires frequent trades, which can lead to higher transaction costs, especially in markets with wide bid-ask spreads or high commissions.
Conclusion:
Larry Connors’ Spent Market Trading Pattern strategy is built on the principle of mean reversion, leveraging the concept that markets tend to revert to a mean after extreme moves. While effective in certain conditions, such as range-bound markets, it carries risks—especially during strong trends—where price momentum may not reverse as quickly as expected.
For a more in-depth explanation, Larry Connors’ books such as "Short-Term Trading Strategies That Work" provide a comprehensive guide to this and other strategies .
Connors VIX Reversal III invented by Dave LandryThis strategy is based on trading signals derived from the behavior of the Volatility Index (VIX) relative to its 10-day moving average. The rules are split into buying and selling conditions:
Buy Conditions:
The VIX low must be above its 10-day moving average.
The VIX must close at least 10% above its 10-day moving average.
If both conditions are met, a buy signal is generated at the market's close.
Sell Conditions:
The VIX high must be below its 10-day moving average.
The VIX must close at least 10% below its 10-day moving average.
If both conditions are met, a sell signal is generated at the market's close.
Exit Conditions:
For long positions, the strategy exits when the VIX trades intraday below its previous day’s 10-day moving average.
For short positions, the strategy exits when the VIX trades intraday above its previous day’s 10-day moving average.
This strategy is primarily a mean-reversion strategy, where the market is expected to revert to a more normal state after the VIX exhibits extreme behavior (i.e., large deviations from its moving average).
About Dave Landry
Dave Landry is a well-known figure in the world of trading, particularly in technical analysis. He is an author, trader, and educator, best known for his work on swing trading strategies. Landry focuses on trend-following and momentum-based techniques, teaching traders how to capitalize on shorter-term price swings in the market. He has written books like "Dave Landry on Swing Trading" and "The Layman's Guide to Trading Stocks," which emphasize practical, actionable trading strategies.
About Connors Research
Connors Research is a financial research firm known for its quantitative research in financial markets. Founded by Larry Connors, the firm specializes in developing high-probability trading systems based on historical market behavior. Connors’ work is widely respected for its data-driven approach, including systems like the RSI(2) strategy, which focuses on short-term mean reversion. The firm also provides trading education and tools for institutional and retail traders alike, emphasizing strategies that can be backtested and quantified.
Risks of the Strategy
While this strategy may appear to offer promising opportunities to exploit extreme VIX movements, it carries several risks:
Market Volatility: The VIX itself is a measure of market volatility, meaning the strategy can be exposed to sudden and unpredictable market swings. This can result in whipsaws, where positions are opened and closed in rapid succession due to sharp reversals in the VIX.
Overfitting: Strategies based on specific conditions like the VIX closing 10% above or below its moving average can be subject to overfitting, meaning they work well in historical tests but may underperform in live markets. This is a common issue in quantitative trading systems that are not adaptable to changing market conditions .
Mean-Reversion Assumption: The core assumption behind this strategy is that markets will revert to their mean after extreme movements. However, during periods of sustained trends (e.g., market crashes or rallies), this assumption may break down, leading to prolonged drawdowns.
Liquidity and Slippage: Depending on the asset being traded (e.g., S&P 500 futures, ETFs), liquidity issues or slippage could occur when executing trades at market close, particularly in volatile conditions. This could increase costs or worsen trade execution.
Scientific Explanation of the Strategy
The VIX is often referred to as the "fear gauge" because it measures the market's expectations of volatility based on options prices. Research has shown that the VIX tends to spike during periods of market stress and revert to lower levels when conditions stabilize . Mean reversion strategies like this one assume that extreme VIX levels are unsustainable in the long run, which aligns with findings from academic literature on volatility and market behavior.
Studies have found that the VIX is inversely correlated with stock market returns, meaning that higher VIX levels often correspond to lower stock prices and vice versa . By using the VIX’s relationship with its 10-day moving average, this strategy aims to capture reversals in market sentiment. The 10% threshold is designed to identify moments when the VIX is significantly deviating from its norm, signaling a potential reversal.
However, academic research also highlights the limitations of relying on the VIX alone for trading signals. The VIX does not predict market direction, only volatility, meaning that it cannot indicate the magnitude of price movements . Furthermore, extreme VIX levels can persist longer than expected, particularly during financial crises.
In conclusion, while the strategy is grounded in well-established financial principles (e.g., mean reversion and the relationship between volatility and market performance), it carries inherent risks and should be used with caution. Backtesting and careful risk management are essential before applying this strategy in live markets.
No Buyers or Sellers (Volume Threshold)This indicator shows areas on the second or minute charts that lack buyer or seller activity in the form of volume. This is configurable in the code itself by the user.
This can be used to close a trade because there is no desire shown by the market to continue the trend.
TRIN (Arms Index) Trading StrategyThe TRIN (Arms Index), also known as the Short-Term Trading Index, is a technical indicator designed to gauge the internal strength or weakness of the market. It compares the number of advancing and declining stocks to the advancing and declining volume (AD Volume). A TRIN value above 1.0 generally indicates bearish market conditions, while a value below 1.0 suggests bullish market sentiment.
Strategy Rules:
Entry Condition (Long Position): When the TRIN value is above 1.0, the strategy enters a long position, indicating that the market may be oversold, and a potential reversal could occur.
Exit Condition: The strategy exits the long position when the closing price is higher than the previous day’s high, signaling a potential rebound in the market.
This strategy aims to capitalize on short-term market inefficiencies by entering trades during periods of potential market weakness and exiting when signs of recovery appear.
How the TRIN Index Works:
The TRIN is calculated as follows:
TRIN=Advancing Issues / Declining IssuesAdvancing Volume / Declining Volume
TRIN=Advancing Volume / Declining VolumeAdvancing Issues / Declining Issues
A TRIN value above 1.0 indicates that the market is potentially oversold (more declining stocks with higher volume), while a value below 1.0 suggests the market may be overbought (more advancing stocks with higher volume) .
Empirical Evidence:
Market Sentiment Indicator: The TRIN has been widely used as a sentiment indicator. Research by Zweig (1997) suggests that extreme TRIN values can serve as a contrarian signal, indicating potential turning points in the market. For instance, a TRIN above 2.0 is often considered a sign of panic selling, which can precede a market bottom .
Overbought/Oversold Conditions: Studies have shown that indicators like TRIN, which measure market breadth and volume, can be effective in identifying overbought and oversold conditions. According to Fama and French (1988), market sentiment indicators that consider both price and volume data can offer insights into future price movements .
Risks and Limitations:
False Signals:
One of the primary risks of using the TRIN-based strategy is the possibility of false signals. A TRIN value above 1.0 does not always guarantee a market rebound, especially in sustained bearish trends. In such cases, the strategy might enter long positions prematurely, leading to losses.
Research by Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) found that while market indicators like TRIN can be useful, they are not foolproof and can generate multiple false positives, particularly in volatile markets .
Market Regimes:
The effectiveness of the TRIN index can vary depending on the market regime. In strongly trending markets, either bullish or bearish, the TRIN may not provide reliable reversal signals, and relying on it could result in trades that go against the prevailing trend. For instance, during strong bear markets, the TRIN may frequently remain above 1.0, leading to multiple losing trades as the market continues to decline.
Short-Term Focus:
The TRIN strategy is inherently short-term focused, aiming to capture quick market reversals. This makes it sensitive to market noise and less effective for longer-term investors. Moreover, short-term trading strategies often require more frequent adjustments and can incur higher transaction costs, which may erode profitability over time.
Liquidity and Execution Risk:
Since the TRIN strategy requires entering and exiting trades based on short-term market movements, it is vulnerable to liquidity and execution risks. In fast-moving markets, the execution of trades may be delayed, leading to slippage and potentially unfavorable entry or exit points.
Conclusion:
The TRIN (Arms Index) Trading Strategy can be an effective tool for traders looking to capitalize on short-term market inefficiencies and potential reversals. However, it is important to recognize the risks associated with this strategy, including false signals, sensitivity to market regimes, and execution risks. Traders should employ proper risk management techniques and consider combining the TRIN with other indicators to improve the robustness of the strategy.
While the TRIN provides valuable insights into market sentiment, it is not a standalone solution and should be used in conjunction with a broader trading plan that takes into account both technical and fundamental analysis.
References:
Arms, Richard W. "Volume Adjusted Moving Averages." Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, 1993.
Zweig, Martin. Winning on Wall Street. Warner Books, 1997.
Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. French. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices." Journal of Political Economy, 1988.
Brock, William, Josef Lakonishok, and Blake LeBaron. "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance, 1992.
S&P500 Market Breadth /MA20Introduction
It calculates the percentage of assets trading above their 20-day moving average (MA20), providing a clear view of market breadth and highlighting the strength of an uptrend or downtrend.
Features
• Market Breadth Analysis: The MA20 Market Breadth Indicator tracks the number of assets trading above their 20-day moving average, offering an intuitive view of the proportion of rising versus falling assets. A high breadth suggests a strong uptrend, while low breadth indicates that most assets are in a downtrend.
• Trend Following: This indicator allows traders to easily identify whether the overall market trend is healthy and upward or potentially weakening and downward.
• Simple and Intuitive: The breadth is displayed as a percentage, enabling users to quickly assess market conditions and make informed decisions.
How to Use
1. Assess Market Sentiment: When the MA20 market breadth is above the 50% zone, it indicates that the market is in a broad uptrend, favoring long positions. When it falls below 50%, it signals downward pressure, making it a time for caution or short opportunities.
2. Spot Trend Reversals: Sudden changes in market breadth, such as a sharp decline from a high level, can indicate an upcoming market reversal or correction, signaling traders to adjust their positions.
3. Confirm Trends: Combine the MA20 market breadth with other indicators, such as momentum or volume, to further validate the overall direction of the market.
Applicable Markets
This indicator works across various markets and asset classes, including but not limited to:
• Stock markets (indices and individual stocks)
• Cryptocurrencies
• Forex markets
Conclusion
The MA20 Market Breadth Indicator provides traders with a clear picture of market health, helping to identify broader trends and confirm shifts in market sentiment. It’s an essential tool for traders of all types, particularly those focused on medium to short-term trend following and market reversals.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational purposes only. Please use it in conjunction with your own trading strategies and adjust according to your risk tolerance.
This introduction should work well for your TradingView release. You can adjust it as needed for specific features or updates in the indicator.
TradeTracker v33 - Interactive Journal [AR33_]TradeTracker v33 - Interactive Journal is a unique tool designed to enhance your trading experience by integrating an interactive journal directly onto your charts. Unlike traditional trading journals that require manual entries outside of TradingView, this script allows traders to document, track, and review their trades in real-time, right where the action happens.
What sets TradeTracker v33 apart from existing tools is its seamless blend of note-taking, task management, and performance tracking—all within a single, intuitive interface. With features like customizable checklists, due dates, and color-coded status indicators, this script provides a powerful and practical solution for traders who want to stay organized and disciplined.
2. Description
. TradeTracker v33 - Interactive Journal is designed to keep traders on track by allowing them to record trade-related notes, set tasks, and mark progress directly on their charts.
Here’s how it works:
• Purpose: The script serves as an all-in-one journal and task manager, helping traders document their trading strategies, track ongoing tasks, and review completed actions. It’s particularly useful for maintaining discipline and ensuring that every trade is executed according to a well-thought-out plan.
• How It Works:
• Interactive Notes and Tasks: Users can create and manage notes and tasks directly on their charts. Each note can be customized with a title, description, due date, and completion status.
• Status Indicators: Tasks are color-coded based on their status—green for completed, red for overdue, and default colors for pending tasks—allowing traders to quickly assess their progress.
• Dynamic Display: Notes are displayed in a clean, organized table on the chart, making it easy to review multiple tasks without cluttering the trading interface.
• Usage:
• Adding Notes: Simply fill in the note title, content, and optional due date within the script’s input settings, and the note will appear on your chart.
• Tracking Progress: Mark tasks as completed with a simple toggle, and the script will update their status in real-time.
• Customizing Your Workflow: Adjust the position, size, and visibility of notes to fit your trading style, ensuring that your journal supports rather than distracts from your trading activities.
3. Chart Presentation
To provide a clear and focused user experience, TradeTracker v33 - Interactive Journal is designed to be the sole feature on your chart when published. This ensures that users can easily identify and interact with their notes and tasks without any unnecessary distractions.
• Clean and Focused Display: The chart will exclusively display the interactive journal, showcasing how tasks and notes appear and update in real-time as you manage them.
• Useful Annotations: Annotations such as checkboxes and status indicators are clearly explained within the script’s description and are vital to understanding the functionality of the tool.
• Minimal Distractions: Only elements directly related to the script’s functionality are included on the chart, ensuring that users can easily follow along and implement the script in their own trading setup.
True Strength Index with Buy/Sell Signals and AlertsThe True Strength Index (TSI) is a momentum oscillator that helps traders identify trends and potential reversal points in the market. Here’s how it works:
1. **Price Change Calculation**:
- **`pc = ta.change(price)`**: This calculates the change in price (current price minus the previous price).
2. **Double Smoothing**:
- **`double_smooth(src, long, short)`**: This function smooths the price change data twice using two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs):
- The first EMA smooths the raw data.
- The second EMA smooths the result of the first EMA.
- **`double_smoothed_pc`**: The double-smoothed price change.
- **`double_smoothed_abs_pc`**: The double-smoothed absolute price change, which helps normalize the TSI value.
3. **TSI Calculation**:
- **`tsi_value = 100 * (double_smoothed_pc / double_smoothed_abs_pc)`**: This calculates the TSI by dividing the double-smoothed price change by the double-smoothed absolute price change, then multiplying by 100 to scale the value.
- The TSI oscillates around the zero line, indicating momentum. Positive values suggest bullish momentum, while negative values suggest bearish momentum.
4. **Signal Line**:
- **`signal_line = ta.ema(tsi_value, signal)`**: This creates a signal line by applying another EMA to the TSI value. The signal line is typically used to identify entry and exit points.
5. **Buy and Sell Signals**:
- **Buy Signal**: Occurs when the TSI crosses above the signal line (`ta.crossover(tsi_value, signal_line)`), indicating that bullish momentum is strengthening, which might suggest a buying opportunity.
- **Sell Signal**: Occurs when the TSI crosses below the signal line (`ta.crossunder(tsi_value, signal_line)`), indicating that bearish momentum is strengthening, which might suggest a selling opportunity.
6. **Visual Representation**:
- The TSI line and the signal line are plotted on the chart.
- Buy signals are marked with green "BUY" labels below the bars, and sell signals are marked with red "SELL" labels above the bars.
**How to Use It**:
- **Trend Identification**: When the TSI is above zero, it suggests an uptrend; when it's below zero, it suggests a downtrend.
- **Buy/Sell Signals**: Traders often enter a buy trade when the TSI crosses above the signal line and enter a sell trade when the TSI crosses below the signal line.
- **Divergences**: TSI can also be used to spot divergences between the indicator and price action, which can signal potential reversals.
The TSI is particularly useful in identifying the strength of a trend and the potential turning points, making it valuable for trend-following and swing trading strategies.
Open-Close Price DifferenceInput time A (open time) and time B (closing time)
do not do anything with the year-month-date, it's there because I don't know how to fix it and it needs to be in such format.
the difference of price will be shown on the indicator window one candle after the closing time (opening at such time)
For research purpose only, no other intended purposes.
VWAP SlopePublishing one of the simplest yet one of my favorite concepts. Had to publish since I didn't really find any script for this on TV.
VWAP slope.
This is nothing fancy because it's just calculating "slope" with a very basic level formula
vwap_slope = (vwap - vwap ) / length
Above zero line, it's positive zone.
Below zero line, it's a negative zone.
The idea is to avoid choppy conditions and stay true to larger readings, sometimes when we have vwap directly on chart and when price interacts with it, we tend to take the lot of bad trades.
The intention here is to avoid just that.
This is also good at tracking failure of change in sentiments, this failure is very important, because one's failure occurs there is significant movement in the opposite direction of the failure.
Since there isn't much alteration to this idea, there is not much to talk about tbh.
Just remember, this is an educational idea and not assurance of future performance.
Regards.
Market Sessions - by Alexander RottasMarket Sessions - Alexander Rottas
This TradingView indicator displays market sessions for USA, EUROPE, and ASIA on your chart. It provides a clear and intuitive way to identify the active market periods, making it easier to plan your trades.
Features:
Session Display: Optionally show market sessions for USA, EUROPE, and ASIA.
Customizable Timings: Set start and end times in UTC for each market session.
Visual Indicators: Color-coded squares indicate active sessions and their combinations:
USA Session: Blue
EUROPE Session: Purple
ASIA Session: Dull Orange
Combined Sessions: Lighter shades to show overlapping sessions
Session Labels: Dynamic labels at the start of each session to easily identify session beginnings on weekdays.
User-Friendly Design: This indicator is designed to be non-intrusive and easy to use, with a simple setup and clear visual cues. Unlike other complex tools, it integrates seamlessly into your chart without overwhelming your view, making it an ideal choice for traders seeking a straightforward way to track market sessions.
DISCLAIMER: This script is provided for educational purposes only. It cannot be used for commercial purposes or plagiarized. All rights reserved by the author. Unauthorized use or distribution of this script is prohibited. For more details, please contact the author directly.
Wick Strength [MS]Overview
The Wick Strength indicator is a unique script designed to measure and visualize the relative strength of candlestick wicks over time. By analyzing the relationship between upper and lower wicks, this indicator provides insights into potential market dynamics and price action patterns.
How It Works
The Wick Strength indicator calculates the "strength" of candlestick wicks by comparing the upward and downward movements within each candle's range. This calculation results in a dynamic line plot that represents the evolving wick strength across your chosen timeframe.
Strength is not range-bound, allowing the score to reach extremes and be compared relatively across time.
Interpretation
Positive values indicate stronger upper wicks (potential bearish pressure)
Negative values suggest stronger lower wicks (potential bullish pressure)
Extreme readings might signal overextended moves or potential reversals
Key Features
Measures relative wick strength candle by candle
Smooths the values by summation based on user preference
Adaptable to all timeframes and markets
Potential Applications
While extensive backtesting has not been performed, the Wick Strength indicator may offer valuable insights for:
Identifying potential divergences between price action and wick strength
Spotting changes in market sentiment or volatility
Complementing other technical analysis tools for a more comprehensive trading approach
Developing unique trading strategies based on wick behavior
Ticker Tape█ OVERVIEW
This indicator creates a dynamic, scrolling display of multiple securities' latest prices and daily changes, similar to the ticker tapes on financial news channels and the Ticker Tape Widget . It shows realtime market information for a user-specified list of symbols along the bottom of the main chart pane.
█ CONCEPTS
Ticker tape
Traditionally, a ticker tape was a continuous, narrow strip of paper that displayed stock prices, trade volumes, and other financial and security information. Invented by Edward A. Calahan in 1867, ticker tapes were the earliest method for electronically transmitting live stock market data.
A machine known as a "stock ticker" received stock information via telegraph, printing abbreviated company names, transaction prices, and other information in a linear sequence on the paper as new data came in. The term "ticker" in the name comes from the "tick" sound the machine made as it printed stock information. The printed tape provided a running record of trading activity, allowing market participants to stay informed on recent market conditions without needing to be on the exchange floor.
In modern times, electronic displays have replaced physical ticker tapes. However, the term "ticker" remains persistent in today's financial lexicon. Nowadays, ticker symbols and digital tickers appear on financial news networks, trading platforms, and brokerage/exchange websites, offering live updates on market information. Modern electronic displays, thankfully, do not rely on telegraph updates to operate.
█ FEATURES
Requesting a list of securities
The "Symbol list" text box in the indicator's "Settings/Inputs" tab allows users to list up to 40 symbols or ticker Identifiers. The indicator dynamically requests and displays information for each one. To add symbols to the list, enter their names separated by commas . For example: "BITSTAMP:BTCUSD, TSLA, MSFT".
Each item in the comma-separated list must represent a valid symbol or ticker ID. If the list includes an invalid symbol, the script will raise a runtime error.
To specify a broker/exchange for a symbol, include its name as a prefix with a colon in the "EXCHANGE:SYMBOL" format. If a symbol in the list does not specify an exchange prefix, the indicator selects the most commonly used exchange when requesting the data.
Realtime updates
This indicator requests symbol descriptions, current market prices, daily price changes, and daily change percentages for each ticker from the user-specified list of symbols or ticker identifiers. It receives updated information for each security after new realtime ticks on the current chart.
After a new realtime price update, the indicator updates the values shown in the tape display and their colors.
The color of the percentages in the tape depends on the change in price from the previous day . The text is green when the daily change is positive, red when the value is negative, and gray when the value is 0.
The color of each displayed price depends on the change in value from the last recorded update, not the change over a daily period. For example, if a security's price increases in the latest update, the ticker tape shows that price with green text, even if the current price is below the previous day's closing price. This behavior allows users to monitor realtime directional changes in the requested securities.
NOTE: Pine scripts execute on realtime bars when new ticks are available in the chart's data feed. If no new updates are available from the chart's realtime feed, it may cause a delay in the data the indicator receives.
Ticker motion
This indicator's tape display shows a list of security information that incrementally scrolls horizontally from right to left after new chart updates, providing a dynamic visual stream of current market data. The scrolling effect works by using a counter that increments across successive intervals after realtime ticks to control the offset of each listed security. Users can set the initial scroll offset with the "Offset" input in the "Settings/Inputs" tab.
The scrolling rate of the ticker tape display depends on the realtime ticks available from the chart's data feed. Using the indicator on a chart with frequent realtime updates results in smoother scrolling. If no new realtime ticks are available in the chart's feed, the ticker tape does not move. Users can also deactivate the scrolling feature by toggling the "Running" input in the indicator's settings.
█ FOR Pine Script™ CODERS
• This script utilizes dynamic requests to iteratively fetch information from multiple contexts using a single request.security() instance in the code. Previously, `request.*()` functions were not allowed within the local scopes of loops or conditional structures, and most `request.*()` function parameters, excluding `expression`, required arguments of a simple or weaker qualified type. The new `dynamic_requests` parameter in script declaration statements enables more flexibility in how scripts can use `request.*()` calls. When its value is `true`, all `request.*()` functions can accept series arguments for the parameters that define their requested contexts, and `request.*()` functions can execute within local scopes. See the Dynamic requests section of the Pine Script™ User Manual to learn more.
• Scripts can execute up to 40 unique `request.*()` function calls. A `request.*()` call is unique only if the script does not already call the same function with the same arguments. See this section of the User Manual's Limitations page for more information.
• This script converts a comma-separated "string" list of symbols or ticker IDs into an array . It then loops through this array, dynamically requesting data from each symbol's context and storing the results within a collection of custom `Tape` objects . Each `Tape` instance holds information about a symbol, which the script uses to populate the table that displays the ticker tape.
• This script uses the varip keyword to declare variables and `Tape` fields that update across ticks on unconfirmed bars without rolling back. This behavior allows the script to color the tape's text based on the latest price movements and change the locations of the table cells after realtime updates without reverting. See the `varip` section of the User Manual to learn more about using this keyword.
• Typically, when requesting higher-timeframe data with request.security() using barmerge.lookahead_on as the `lookahead` argument, the `expression` argument should use the history-referencing operator to offset the series, preventing lookahead bias on historical bars. However, the request.security() call in this script uses barmerge.lookahead_on without offsetting the `expression` because the script only displays results for the latest historical bar and all realtime bars, where there is no future information to leak into the past. Instead, using this call on those bars ensures each request fetches the most recent data available from each context.
• The request.security() instance in this script includes a `calc_bars_count` argument to specify that each request retrieves only a minimal number of bars from the end of each symbol's historical data feed. The script does not need to request all the historical data for each symbol because it only shows results on the last chart bar that do not depend on the entire time series. In this case, reducing the retrieved bars in each request helps minimize resource usage without impacting the calculated results.
Look first. Then leap.
Breaker Blocks + Order Blocks confirm [TradingFinder] BBOB Alert🔵 Introduction
In the realm of technical analysis, various tools and concepts are employed to identify key levels on price charts. These tools assist traders in analyzing market trends with greater precision, enabling them to optimize their trading decisions. Among these tools, the Order Block and Breaker Block hold a significant place, serving as effective instruments for analyzing market structure.
🟣 Order Block
An Order Block refers to zones on a chart where large financial institutions and high-volume traders place their orders. Due to the substantial volume of buy or sell orders in these areas, they are often regarded as pivotal points for potential price reversals or temporary pauses in a trend. Order Blocks are particularly crucial when prices react to these zones after a strong market move, acting as strong support or resistance levels.
🟣 Breaker Block
On the other hand, a Breaker Block refers to areas on a chart that previously functioned as Order Blocks but where the price has managed to break through and continue in the opposite direction. These zones are typically recognized as key points where market trends might shift, helping traders identify potential reversal points in the market.
🟣 Overlapping Block (BBOB)
Now, imagine a scenario where these two essential concepts in technical analysis—Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks—overlap on a chart. Although this overlap is not specifically discussed within the ICT (Inner Circle Trader) trading framework, exploring and utilizing this overlap can provide traders with powerful insights into strong support and resistance zones. The combination of these two robust concepts can highlight critical areas in trading, potentially offering significant advantages in making informed trading decisions.
In this article, we will delve into the concept of this overlap, explaining how to utilize it in trading strategies. Additionally, we will analyze the potential outcomes and benefits of incorporating this concept into your trading decisions.
Bullish Overlapping Block (BBOB) :
Bearish Overlapping Block (BBOB) :
🔵 How to Use
The overlap between Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks is a compelling and powerful concept that can help traders identify key levels on the chart with a high probability of success. This overlap is particularly valuable because it combines two well-regarded concepts in technical analysis—zones of high order volume and critical market shifts.
🟣 Here’s how to effectively use this overlap in your trading
1. Dentifying the Overlapping Block : To make the most of the overlap between Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks, begin by identifying these zones separately. Order Blocks are areas where price typically reacts and reverses after a strong market move.
Breaker Blocks are areas where a previous Order Block has been breached, and the price continues in the opposite direction. When these two zones overlap on a chart, it’s crucial to pay close attention to this area, as it represents a high-probability reaction zone.
2. Analyzing the Overlapping Block : After identifying the overlap zone, carefully analyze price action within this region. Candlestick patterns and price behavior can provide essential clues.
If the price reaches this overlap zone and strong reversal patterns such as Pin Bars or Engulfing patterns are observed, it’s likely that this zone will act as a pivotal reversal point. In such cases, entering a trade with confidence becomes more feasible.
3. Entering the Trade : When sufficient signs of price reaction are present in the overlap zone, you can proceed to enter the trade. If the overlap zone is within an uptrend and bullish reversal signals are evident, a long position might be appropriate.
Conversely, if the overlap zone is in a downtrend and bearish reversal signals are observed, a short position would be more suitable.
4. Risk Management : One of the most critical aspects of trading in overlap zones is managing risk. To protect your capital, place your stop loss near the lowest point of the Order Block (for buy trades) or the highest point (for sell trades). This approach minimizes potential losses if the overlap zone fails to hold.
5. Price Targets : After entering the trade, set your price targets based on other key levels on the chart. These targets could include other support and resistance zones, Fibonacci levels, or pivot points.
Bullish Overlapping Block :
Bearish Overlapping Block :
🟣 Benefits of the Overlapping Block Between Order Block and Breaker Block
1. Enhanced Precision in Identifying Key Levels : The overlap between these two zones usually acts as a highly reliable area for price reactions, increasing the accuracy of identifying entry and exit points.
2. Reduced Trading Risk : Given the high importance of the overlap zone, the likelihood of making incorrect decisions is reduced, contributing to overall lower trading risk.
3. Increased Probability of Success : The overlap between Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks combines two powerful concepts, enhancing the likelihood of success in trades, as multiple indicators confirm the importance of the area.
4. Creation of Better Trading Opportunities : Overlap zones often provide traders with more robust trading opportunities, as these areas typically represent strong reversal points in the market.
5. Compatibility with Other Technical Tools : This concept seamlessly integrates with other technical analysis tools such as Fibonacci retracements, trend lines, and chart patterns, offering a more comprehensive market analysis.
🔵 Setting
🟣 Global Setting
Pivot Period of Order Blocks Detector : Enter the desired pivot period to identify the Order Block.
Order Block Validity Period (Bar) : You can specify the maximum time the Order Block remains valid based on the number of candles from the origin.
Mitigation Level Order Block : Determining the basic level of a Order Block. When the price hits the basic level, the Order Block due to mitigation.
Mitigation Level Breaker Block : Determining the basic level of a Breaker Block. When the price hits the basic level, the Breaker Block due to mitigation.
Mitigation Level Overlapping Block : Determining the basic level of a Overlapping Block. When the price hits the basic level, the Overlapping Block due to mitigation.
🟣 Overlapping Block Display
Show All Overlapping Block : If it is turned off, only the last Order Block will be displayed.
Demand Overlapping Block : Show or not show and specify color.
Supply Overlapping Block : Show or not show and specify color.
🟣 Order Block Display
Show All Order Block : If it is turned off, only the last Order Block will be displayed.
Demand Main Order Block : Show or not show and specify color.
Demand Sub (Propulsion & BoS Origin) Order Block : Show or not show and specify color.
Supply Main Order Block : Show or not show and specify color.
Supply Sub (Propulsion & BoS Origin) Order Block : Show or not show and specify color.
🟣 Breaker Block Display
Show All Breaker Block : If it is turned off, only the last Breaker Block will be displayed.
Demand Main Breaker Block : Show or not show and specify color.
Demand Sub (Propulsion & BoS Origin) Breaker Block : Show or not show and specify color.
Supply Main Breaker Block : Show or not show and specify color.
Supply Sub (Propulsion & BoS Origin) Breaker Block : Show or not show and specify color.
🟣 Order Block Refinement
Refine Order Blocks : Enable or disable the refinement feature. Mode selection.
🟣 Alert
Alert Name : The name of the alert you receive.
Alert Overlapping Block Mitigation :
On / Off
Message Frequency :
This string parameter defines the announcement frequency. Choices include: "All" (activates the alert every time the function is called), "Once Per Bar" (activates the alert only on the first call within the bar), and "Once Per Bar Close" (the alert is activated only by a call at the last script execution of the real-time bar upon closing). The default setting is "Once per Bar".
Show Alert Time by Time Zone :
The date, hour, and minute you receive in alert messages can be based on any time zone you choose. For example, if you want New York time, you should enter "UTC-4". This input is set to the time zone "UTC" by default.
🔵 Conclusion
The overlap between Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks represents a critical and powerful area in technical analysis that can serve as an effective tool for determining entry and exit points in trading.
These zones, due to the combination of two key concepts in technical analysis, hold significant importance and can help traders make more confident trading decisions.
Although this concept is not specifically discussed in the ICT framework and is introduced as a new idea, traders can achieve better results in their trades through practice and testing.
Utilizing the overlap between Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks, in conjunction with other technical analysis tools, can significantly improve the chances of success in trading.
Radius Trend [ChartPrime]RADIUS TREND
⯁ OVERVIEW
The Radius Trend [ ChartPrime ] indicator is an innovative technical analysis tool designed to visualize market trends using a dynamic, radius-based approach. By incorporating adaptive bands that adjust based on price action and volatility, this indicator provides traders with a unique perspective on trend direction, strength, and potential reversal points.
The Radius Trend concept involves creating a dynamic trend line that adjusts its angle and position based on market movements, similar to a radius sweeping across a chart. This approach allows for a more fluid and adaptive trend analysis compared to traditional linear trend lines.
◆ KEY FEATURES
Dynamic Trend Band: Calculates and plots a main trend band that adapts to market conditions.
Radius-Based Adjustment: Uses a step-based radius approach to adjust the trend band angle.
// Apply step angle to trend lines
if bar_index % n == 0 and trend
multi1 := 0
multi2 += step
band += distance1 * multi2
if bar_index % n == 0 and not trend
multi1 += step
multi2 := 0
band -= distance1 * multi1
Volatility-Adjusted Calculations: Incorporates price range volatility for more accurate band placement.
Trend Direction Visualization: Provides clear color-coding to distinguish between uptrends and downtrends.
Flexible Parameters: Allows users to adjust the radius step and initial distance for customized analysis.
◆ USAGE
Trend Identification: Use the color and direction of the main band to determine the current market trend.
Trend Strength Analysis: Observe the angle and consistency of the band for insights into trend strength.
Reversal Detection: Watch for price crossing the main band or crossing a dashed band as a potential trend reversal signal.
Volatility Assessment: The distance between price and bands can provide insights into market volatility.
⯁ USER INPUTS
Radius Step: Controls the rate of angle adjustment for the trend band (default: 0.15, step: 0.001).
Start Points Distance: Sets the initial distance multiplier for band calculations (default: 2, step: 0.1).
The Radius Trend indicator offers traders a unique and dynamic approach to trend analysis. By combining radius-based trend adjustments with volatility-sensitive calculations, it provides a fluid representation of market trends. This indicator is particularly useful for traders looking to identify trend persistence, potential reversal points, and adaptive support/resistance levels across various market conditions and timeframes.
Longable/ShortableThis indicator advises intraday traders which direction NOT to take trades in, based on recent action in the daily chart. Works on any timeframe.
This is not a buy/sell indicator - it is a FILTER that is meant to SUPPRESS trades you may have wanted to take. Like a Daily Bias, but with a neutral position (no bias).
The indicator shows when NOT to take longs and when NOT to take shorts.
So you need an existing strategy to combine this with.
By default, the last 3 days are taken into account (smoothing=3). Change the threshold to get fewer or more warning signals.
The symbols are very simple:
Green triangle = Longs only
Red triangle = Shorts only
(Each signal is valid for the next candle. After that it expires.)
The current bias is also shown in the bottom right corner.
How it works: We look at which parts of the last candle overlap with the current one. When the new candle's low is far above the last candle's low, it is an indication not to go short. Similarly, when the new candle's high is far below the last candle's high, it is an indication not to go long.
For each direction, we calculate this as a percentage value (what percentage of the last candle is not overlapping the new one), smooth the value and give a signal when we are above the set threshold.
ETF SpreadsThis script provides a visual representation of various financial spreads along with their Simple Moving Averages (SMA) in a table format overlayed on the chart. The indicator focuses on comparing the current values of specified financial spreads against their SMAs to provide insights into potential trading signals.
Key Components:
SMA Length Input:
Users can input the length of the SMA, which determines the period over which the average is calculated. The default length is set to 20 days.
Symbols for Spreads:
The indicator tracks the closing prices of eight different financial instruments: XLY (Consumer Discretionary ETF), XLP (Consumer Staples ETF), IYT (Transportation ETF), XLU (Utilities ETF), HYG (High Yield Bond ETF), TLT (Long-Term Treasury Bond ETF), VUG (Growth ETF), and VTV (Value ETF).
Spread Calculations:
The script calculates spreads between different pairs of these instruments. For instance, it computes the ratio of XLY to XLP, which represents the performance spread between Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors.
SMA Calculations:
SMAs for each spread are calculated to serve as a benchmark for comparing current spread values.
Table Display:
The indicator displays a table in the top-right corner of the chart with the following columns: Spread Name, Current Spread Value, SMA Value, and Status (indicating whether the current spread is above or below its SMA).
Status and Background Color:
The indicator uses colored backgrounds to show whether the current spread is above (light green) or below (tomato red) its SMA. Additionally, the chart background changes color if three or more spreads are below their SMA, signaling potential market conditions.
Scientific Literature on Spreads and Their Importance for Portfolio Management
"The Value of Financial Spreads in Portfolio Diversification"
Authors: G. Gregoriou, A. Z. P. G. Constantinides
Journal: Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, 2012
Abstract: This study explores how financial spreads between different asset classes can enhance portfolio diversification and reduce overall risk. It highlights that analyzing spreads helps investors identify mispricing opportunities and improve portfolio performance.
"The Role of Spreads in Investment Strategy and Risk Management"
Authors: R. J. Hodrick, E. S. S. Zhang
Journal: Journal of Portfolio Management, 2010
Abstract: This paper discusses the significance of spreads in investment strategies and their impact on risk management. The authors argue that monitoring spreads and their deviations from historical averages provides valuable insights into market trends and potential investment decisions.
"Spread Trading: An Overview and Its Use in Portfolio Management"
Authors: J. M. M. Perkins, L. A. B. Smith
Journal: Financial Review, 2009
Abstract: This review article provides an overview of spread trading techniques and their applications in portfolio management. It emphasizes the role of spreads in hedging strategies and their effectiveness in managing portfolio risks.
"Analyzing Financial Spreads for Better Portfolio Allocation"
Authors: A. S. Dechow, J. E. Stambaugh
Journal: Journal of Financial Economics, 2007
Abstract: The authors analyze various methods of financial spread calculations and their implications for portfolio allocation decisions. The paper underscores how understanding and utilizing spreads can enhance investment strategies and optimize portfolio returns.
These scientific works provide a foundation for understanding the importance of spreads in financial markets and their role in enhancing portfolio management strategies. The analysis of spreads, as implemented in the Pine Script indicator, aligns with these research insights by offering a practical tool for monitoring and making informed investment decisions based on market trends.
Economic Policy Uncertainty StrategyThis Pine Script strategy is designed to make trading decisions based on the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for the United States (USEPUINDXD) using a Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a dynamic threshold. The strategy identifies opportunities by entering long positions when the SMA of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index crosses above a user-defined threshold. An exit is triggered after a set number of bars have passed since the trade was opened. Additionally, the background is highlighted in green when a position is open to visually indicate active trades.
This strategy is intended to be used in portfolio management and trading systems where economic policy uncertainty plays a critical role in decision-making. The index provides insight into macroeconomic conditions, which can affect asset prices and investment returns.
The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index is a significant metric used to gauge uncertainty related to economic policies in the United States. This index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles discussing economic uncertainty, government policies, and their potential impact on the economy. It has become a popular indicator for both academics and practitioners to analyze the effects of policy uncertainty on various economic and financial outcomes.
Importance of the EPU Index for Portfolio Decisions:
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Investment Decisions:
Research by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) introduced the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and explored how increased uncertainty leads to delays in investment and hiring decisions. Their study shows that heightened uncertainty, as captured by the EPU index, is associated with a contraction in economic activity and lower stock market returns. Investors tend to shift their portfolios towards safer assets during periods of high policy uncertainty .
Impact on Asset Prices:
Gulen and Ion (2016) demonstrated that policy uncertainty adversely affects corporate investment, leading to lower stock market returns. The study emphasized that firms reduce investment during periods of high policy uncertainty, which can significantly impact the pricing of risky assets. Consequently, portfolio managers need to account for policy uncertainty when making asset allocation decisions .
Global Implications:
Policy uncertainty is not only a domestic issue. Brogaard and Detzel (2015) found that U.S. economic policy uncertainty has significant spillover effects on global financial markets, affecting equity returns, bond yields, and foreign exchange rates. This suggests that global investors should incorporate U.S. policy uncertainty into their risk management strategies .
These studies underscore the importance of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index as a tool for understanding macroeconomic risks and making informed portfolio management decisions. Strategies that incorporate the EPU index, such as the one described above, can help investors navigate periods of uncertainty by adjusting their exposure to different asset classes based on economic conditions.
Proxy Financial Stress Index StrategyThis strategy is based on a Proxy Financial Stress Index constructed using several key financial indicators. The strategy goes long when the financial stress index crosses below a user-defined threshold, signaling a potential reduction in market stress. Once a position is opened, it is held for a predetermined number of bars (periods), after which it is automatically closed.
The financial stress index is composed of several normalized indicators, each representing different market aspects:
VIX - Market volatility.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield - Bond market.
Dollar Index (DXY) - Currency market.
S&P 500 Index - Stock market.
EUR/USD - Currency exchange rate.
High-Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) - Corporate bond market.
Each component is normalized using a Z-score (based on the user-defined moving average and standard deviation lengths) and weighted according to user inputs. The aggregated index reflects overall market stress.
The strategy enters a long position when the stress index crosses below a specified threshold from above, indicating reduced financial stress. The position is held for a defined holding period before being closed automatically.
Scientific References:
The concept of a financial stress index is derived from research that combines multiple financial variables to measure systemic risks in the financial markets. Key research includes:
The Financial Stress Index developed by various Federal Reserve banks, including the Cleveland Financial Stress Index (CFSI)
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index as a measure of interest rate volatility, which correlates with financial stress
These indices are widely used in economic research to gauge financial instability and help in policy decisions. They track real-time fluctuations in various markets and are often used to anticipate economic downturns or periods of high financial risk.
LIT - Awakening CheckList v.1The Awakening Checklist indicator is a tool designed to help traders evaluate certain key market conditions and elements before making trading decisions. It consists of a series of questions that the trader must answer using the options "Yes", "No" or "N/A" (not applicable).
“Has Asia Session ended?” : This question aims to determine if the Asian trading session has ended. The answer to this question can influence trading strategies depending on market conditions.
“Have you identified potential medium induction?” : This question concerns the identification of potential average inductions on the market. Recognizing these inductions can help traders anticipate future price movements.
"Have you identified potential PoI's": This question asks about the identification of potential points of interest on the market. These points of interest can indicate areas of significant support or resistance.
"Have you identified in which direction they are creating lQ?" : This question aims to determine in which direction market participants create liquidity (lQ). Understanding this dynamic can help make informed trade decisions.
“Have they induced Asia Range”: This question concerns the induction of the Asian range by market participants. Recognizing this induction can be important in assessing future price movements.
“Have you had a medium induction”: This question asks about the presence of a medium induction on the market. The answer to this question can influence trading prospects.
“Do you have a BoS away from the induction”: This question aims to find out if the trader has an offer (BoS) far from the identified induction. This can be a risk management strategy.
"Doas your induction PoI have imbalance": This question concerns the imbalance of points of interest (PoI) linked to induction. Recognizing this imbalance can help anticipate price movements.
“Do you have a valid target in mind”: This question aims to find out if the trader has a clear trading objective in mind. Having a goal can help guide trading decisions and manage risk.
Release Notes
The Awakening Checklist indicator is a tool designed to help traders evaluate certain key market conditions and elements before making trading decisions. It consists of a series of questions that the trader must answer using the options "Yes", "No" or "N/A" (not applicable).
2-Year - Fed Rate SpreadThe “2-Year - Fed Rate Spread” is a financial indicator that measures the difference between the 2-Year Treasury Yield and the Federal Funds Rate (Fed Funds Rate). This spread is often used as a gauge of market sentiment regarding the future direction of interest rates and economic conditions.
Calculation
• 2-Year Treasury Yield: This is the return on investment, expressed as a percentage, on the U.S. government’s debt obligations that mature in two years.
• Federal Funds Rate: The interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight.
The indicator calculates the spread by subtracting the Fed Funds Rate from the 2-Year Treasury Yield:
{2-Year - Fed Rate Spread} = {2-Year Treasury Yield} - {Fed Funds Rate}
Interpretation:
• Positive Spread: A positive spread (2-Year Treasury Yield > Fed Funds Rate) typically suggests that the market expects the Fed to raise rates in the future, indicating confidence in economic growth.
• Negative Spread: A negative spread (2-Year Treasury Yield < Fed Funds Rate) can indicate market expectations of a rate cut, often signaling concerns about an economic slowdown or recession. When the spread turns negative, the indicator’s background turns red, making it visually easy to identify these periods.
How to Use:
• Trend Analysis: Investors and analysts can use this spread to assess the market’s expectations for future monetary policy. A persistent negative spread may suggest a cautious approach to equity investments, as it often precedes economic downturns.
• Confirmation Tool: The spread can be used alongside other economic indicators, such as the yield curve, to confirm signals about the direction of interest rates and economic activity.
Research and Academic References:
The 2-Year - Fed Rate Spread is part of a broader analysis of yield spreads and their implications for economic forecasting. Several academic studies have examined the predictive power of yield spreads, including those that involve the 2-Year Treasury Yield and Fed Funds Rate:
1. Estrella, Arturo, and Frederic S. Mishkin (1998). “Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1): 45-61.
• This study explores the predictive power of various financial variables, including yield spreads, in forecasting U.S. recessions. The authors find that the yield spread is a robust leading indicator of economic downturns.
2. Estrella, Arturo, and Gikas A. Hardouvelis (1991). “The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity.” The Journal of Finance, 46(2): 555-576.
• The paper examines the relationship between the term structure of interest rates (including short-term spreads like the 2-Year - Fed Rate) and future economic activity. The study finds that yield spreads are significant predictors of future economic performance.
3. Rudebusch, Glenn D., and John C. Williams (2009). “Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 27(4): 492-503.
• This research investigates why the yield curve, particularly spreads involving short-term rates like the 2-Year Treasury Yield, remains a powerful tool for forecasting recessions despite changes in monetary policy.
Conclusion:
The 2-Year - Fed Rate Spread is a valuable tool for market participants seeking to understand future interest rate movements and potential economic conditions. By monitoring the spread, especially when it turns negative, investors can gain insights into market sentiment and adjust their strategies accordingly. The academic research supports the use of such yield spreads as reliable indicators of future economic activity.
Breadth Thrust Strategy with Volatility Stop-LossThe "Breadth Thrust Strategy with Volatility Stop-Loss" is a trading strategy designed to capitalize on market momentum while managing risk through volatility-based stop-losses. Here's a detailed breakdown of the strategy:
Strategy Overview:
Market Breadth Analysis: The strategy uses the "Breadth Thrust Indicator," which evaluates market momentum by calculating the ratio of advancing stocks to the total number of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This indicator helps identify bullish market conditions. An optional feature allows for the inclusion of volume data in this calculation, enhancing the signal's robustness.
Signal Generation: A long position is triggered when the smoothed breadth ratio (or the combined breadth and volume ratio) crosses above a specified low threshold (e.g., 0.4). This crossover indicates a potential shift towards positive market momentum.
Key Parameters:
Smoothing Length (length): Defines the period over which the breadth or combined ratio is smoothed using a simple moving average (SMA) to reduce noise and highlight the underlying trend.
Low Threshold (threshold_low): The level below which the smoothed ratio must fall before crossing back above to trigger a long signal.
Hold Periods (hold_periods): The minimum number of periods for which the position will be held once entered, ensuring the strategy captures a meaningful move.
Volatility Multiplier (volatility_multiplier): A multiplier applied to the Average True Range (ATR) to determine the distance of the stop-loss from the entry price, which adjusts according to market volatility.
Trade Management:
Entry Signal: The strategy enters a long position when the smoothed combined ratio crosses above the low threshold, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
ATR-Based Stop-Loss: Upon entering a trade, the strategy calculates a stop-loss level based on the ATR, which measures market volatility. The stop-loss is set at a distance from the entry price, determined by multiplying the ATR by the specified volatility multiplier. This adaptive stop-loss mechanism helps protect the position from adverse market moves.
Stop-Loss Adjustment: While the position is open, the stop-loss level is dynamically updated, ensuring it never decreases (trailing stop-loss effect) but can be adjusted upwards to reflect the latest price action relative to volatility.
Position Closure: The position is closed if:
The market price falls to or below the stop-loss level.
The position has been held for the specified number of periods (hold_periods), after which it is automatically closed.
Additional Settings:
Initial Capital: The strategy starts with an initial capital of $10,000.
Commissions and Slippage: Each trade incurs a commission of $5 per order, and slippage is accounted for at $1 per trade.
Background Highlighting: The chart background turns green when a position is open, providing a clear visual indication of the active trade.
This strategy is designed to identify and capitalize on upward momentum in the market while employing a volatility-adjusted stop-loss to manage risk. By combining market breadth analysis with volatility-based stop-losses, the strategy aims to balance profit potential with protection against sudden market reversals.
