FP413-V2Desenvolvido por Alex Reis
- Indicador de Reversão.
- Confluência com a tendência
Tipo de Grafico : Range
Tempo do Gráfico: 10R/ 30R / 50R / 100R
Ativo : Mercado Futuros , Forex , Paridades
Sentiment
Heiken Ashi Color Change Alert- Medium VolitilityHeiken Ashi Color Change Alert with Dynamic Thresholds
This script alerts traders to color changes in Heiken Ashi candles with a dynamic threshold that adjusts based on market volatility. The script provides clear visual markers (triangle shapes) on the chart whenever the Heiken Ashi candles change from bullish to bearish (green to red) or bearish to bullish (red to green). The threshold can be customized to better fit different market conditions.
Key Features:
-Heiken Ashi Color Change Detection: Detects when Heiken Ashi candles shift from bullish to bearish (green to red) or bearish to bullish (red to green), helping traders identify potential trend reversals or market shifts.
-Dynamic Threshold: The threshold for detecting color changes is adjusted based on the current market volatility, measured by the Average True Range (ATR). This reduces false signals and filters out noise.
-Low Volatility Mode: For small-timeframe charts (e.g., 1-minute or 5-minute), with a 1% threshold.
-Medium Volatility Mode: For 1-hour to 4-hour charts, with a 5% threshold.
-High Volatility Mode: For daily or weekly charts, with an 8% threshold.
-Customizable Alerts: Built-in alerts for green-to-red and red-to-green color changes, so traders can be notified of potential market reversals or trend shifts.
-Volume Filtering: Volume conditions are applied to validate the signals, helping ensure that the alerts are backed by sufficient market interest.
-Cleaner Visuals: The script uses small triangle markers for the color change signals, keeping the chart clean and easy to read. You can also adjust the size of the triangles to your preference.
How to Use:
1. Choose Timeframe: Select the timeframe that fits your trading strategy (low or high timeframes).
2. Adjust Threshold: For highly volatile markets, use a higher threshold (e.g., 8% for daily/weekly charts). For low volatility (e.g., 1m/5m charts), use a lower threshold (e.g., 1%).
3. Enable Alerts: Set alerts for color changes to be notified when trend reversals occur.
4. Interpret Signals: A red triangle indicates a bearish reversal, while a green triangle indicates a bullish reversal.
5. This indicator is useful for traders using Heiken Ashi candles who want to automate the detection of trend changes with a dynamic approach to volatility. Adjust the threshold and volume filter to suit your trading style and market conditions.
Disclaimer: This script provides visual cues for trend reversals and should be used in conjunction with other tools or analysis methods. It is not financial advice.
Heiken Ashi Color Change Alert - Low VolitilityDescription for Heiken Ashi Color Change Alert with Dynamic Thresholds
This script is designed to alert traders to color changes in Heiken Ashi candles with a dynamic threshold that adapts based on market volatility. It provides clear visual markers (triangle shapes) on the chart whenever the color of the Heiken Ashi candles changes from bullish to bearish or bearish to bullish, with adjustable settings that allow for greater customization across different market conditions.
Key Features:
Heiken Ashi Color Change Detection: The script detects when Heiken Ashi candles shift from bullish to bearish (green to red) or bearish to bullish (red to green). These changes in color can help traders identify potential trend reversals or market shifts.
Dynamic Threshold: The threshold for detecting a color change is dynamically adjusted based on the current market volatility, measured by the ATR (Average True Range). This helps filter out noise and reduces the chance of false signals.
Low Volatility Mode: Ideal for small-timeframe charts (like 1-minute or 5-minute). The threshold for detecting color changes is set to 1% of the candle's range.
Medium Volatility Mode: Suited for 1-hour to 4-hour charts, where a more balanced approach with a 5% threshold is applied.
High Volatility Mode: Best used for daily or weekly charts, with an 8% threshold to capture larger, more significant price movements.
Customizable Alerts: The script provides built-in alerts for both green-to-red and red-to-green color changes, allowing traders to stay on top of potential market reversals or trend shifts.
Volume Filtering: Volume conditions are applied to help validate the signals, making the alerts more reliable when there is sufficient market interest behind the price action.
Cleaner Visuals: The script uses small triangle shapes for the color change markers, ensuring that the chart remains clean and easy to interpret. You can adjust the size of the triangles to suit your preference.
How to Use:
1. Select Your Timeframe: Choose the timeframe that suits your trading strategy (from low to high timeframes).
2. Adjust the Threshold: For highly volatile markets, use a higher threshold (e.g., 8% for daily/weekly charts). For low volatility (fast-moving markets like 1m/5m), use a lower threshold (e.g., 1%).
3. Set Alerts: Enable alerts for color changes to stay updated when the market experiences a trend reversal.
4. Interpret the Signals: When a red triangle appears, it indicates a bearish reversal, and when a green triangle appears, it signals a bullish reversal.
5. This indicator is useful for traders who rely on Heiken Ashi candles to identify trend changes and would like to automate the detection of these changes with a dynamic and customizable approach to volatility. By adjusting the threshold and volume filter, you can tailor the indicator to your preferred trading style and market conditions.
Disclaimer:
While this script provides helpful visual cues, traders should always use this indicator in conjunction with other tools or analysis methods to make informed trading decisions. This script is not financial advice.
Heiken Ashi Color Change Alert- High VolitilityHeiken Ashi Color Change Alert with Dynamic Thresholds
This script alerts traders to color changes in Heiken Ashi candles with a dynamic threshold that adjusts based on market volatility. The script provides clear visual markers (triangle shapes) on the chart whenever the Heiken Ashi candles change from bullish to bearish (green to red) or bearish to bullish (red to green). The threshold can be customized to better fit different market conditions.
Key Features:
-Heiken Ashi Color Change Detection: Detects when Heiken Ashi candles shift from bullish to bearish (green to red) or bearish to bullish (red to green), helping traders identify potential trend reversals or market shifts.
-Dynamic Threshold: The threshold for detecting color changes is adjusted based on the current market volatility, measured by the Average True Range (ATR). This reduces false signals and filters out noise.
-Low Volatility Mode: For small-timeframe charts (e.g., 1-minute or 5-minute), with a 1% threshold.
-Medium Volatility Mode: For 1-hour to 4-hour charts, with a 5% threshold.
-High Volatility Mode: For daily or weekly charts, with an 8% threshold.
-Customizable Alerts: Built-in alerts for green-to-red and red-to-green color changes, so traders can be notified of potential market reversals or trend shifts.
-Volume Filtering: Volume conditions are applied to validate the signals, helping ensure that the alerts are backed by sufficient market interest.
-Cleaner Visuals: The script uses small triangle markers for the color change signals, keeping the chart clean and easy to read. You can also adjust the size of the triangles to your preference.
How to Use:
1. Choose Timeframe: Select the timeframe that fits your trading strategy (low or high timeframes).
2. Adjust Threshold: For highly volatile markets, use a higher threshold (e.g., 8% for daily/weekly charts). For low volatility (e.g., 1m/5m charts), use a lower threshold (e.g., 1%).
3. Enable Alerts: Set alerts for color changes to be notified when trend reversals occur.
4. Interpret Signals: A red triangle indicates a bearish reversal, while a green triangle indicates a bullish reversal.
5. This indicator is useful for traders using Heiken Ashi candles who want to automate the detection of trend changes with a dynamic approach to volatility. Adjust the threshold and volume filter to suit your trading style and market conditions.
Disclaimer: This script provides visual cues for trend reversals and should be used in conjunction with other tools or analysis methods. It is not financial advice.
Anchored VWAP с 4-мя уровнями отклоненияЭтот индикатор рассчитывает Anchored VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price, Средневзвешенная по объёму цена) от выбранной даты и отображает уровни отклонения, основанные на стандартном отклонении цены от Anchored VWAP.
Ключевые особенности:
Выбор даты якоря: Позволяет выбрать дату начала расчета VWAP: начало года, начало месяца или произвольную дату, заданную пользователем.
Anchored VWAP: Рассчитывает VWAP с момента выбранной даты, что позволяет анализировать среднюю цену относительно определенного события или периода времени.
Уровни отклонения: Отображает уровни отклонения на основе стандартного отклонения цены от Anchored VWAP. Уровни представлены в виде линий, обозначающих +1, +2, +3, +4, -1, -2, -3 и -4 стандартных отклонения.
Визуализация: Линия Anchored VWAP отображается желтым цветом, а уровни отклонения - зеленым (+/- 1σ), оранжевым (+/- 2σ), красным (+/- 3σ) и синим (+/- 4σ).
BTC Spot PremiumJust a little script to see how spot prices differ across exchanges. US exchanges in red, others in aqua. Base ticker is "INDEX:BTCUSD", but you can pick whatever you'd like.
COT Report Indicator with Speculator Net PositionsThe COT Report Indicator with Speculator Net Positions is designed to give traders insights into the behavior of large market participants, particularly speculators, based on the Commitment of Traders (COT) report data. This indicator visualizes the long and short positions of non-commercial traders, allowing users to gauge the sentiment and positioning of large speculators in key markets, such as Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, S&P 500, and currency pairs like EURUSD, GBPUSD, and others.
The indicator provides three essential components:
Net Long Position (Green) - Displays the total long positions held by speculators.
Net Short Position (Purple) - Shows the total short positions held by speculators.
Net Difference (Long - Short) (Yellow) - Illustrates the difference between long and short positions, helping users identify whether speculators are more bullish or bearish on the asset.
Recommended Timeframes:
Best Timeframes: Weekly and Monthly
The COT report data is released on a weekly basis, making higher timeframes like the Weekly and Monthly charts ideal for this indicator. These timeframes provide a more accurate reflection of the underlying trends in speculator positioning, avoiding the noise present in lower timeframes.
How to Use:
Market Sentiment: Use this indicator to gauge the sentiment of large speculators, who often drive market trends. A strong net long position can indicate bullish sentiment, while a high net short position might suggest bearish sentiment.
Trend Reversal Signals: Sudden changes in the net difference between long and short positions may indicate potential trend reversals.
Confirmation Tool: Pair this indicator with your existing analysis to confirm the strength of a trend or identify overbought/oversold conditions based on speculator activity.
Supported Symbols:
This indicator currently supports a range of commodities and currency pairs, including:
Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD )
Silver ( OANDA:XAGUSD )
Crude Oil ( TVC:USOIL )
Natural Gas ( NYMEX:NG1! )
S&P 500 ( SP:SPX )
Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY )
EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD )
GBPUSD ( FX:GBPUSD )
GBPJPY( FX:GBPJPY )
By providing clear insight into the positions of large speculators, this indicator is a powerful tool for traders looking to align with institutional sentiment and enhance their trading strategy.
William Fractals + SignalsWilliams Fractals + Trading Signals
This indicator identifies Williams Fractals and generates trading signals based on price sweeps of these fractal levels.
Williams Fractals are specific candlestick patterns that identify potential market turning points. Each fractal requires a minimum of 5 bars (2 before, 1 center, 2 after), though this indicator allows you to customize the number of bars checked.
Up Fractal (High Point) forms when you have a center bar whose HIGH is higher than the highs of 'n' bars before and after it. For example, with n=2, you'd see a pattern where the center bar's high is higher than 2 bars before and 2 bars after it. The indicator also recognizes patterns where up to 4 bars after the center can have equal highs before requiring a lower high.
Down Fractal (Low Point) forms when you have a center bar whose LOW is lower than the lows of 'n' bars before and after it. For example, with n=2, you'd see a pattern where the center bar's low is lower than 2 bars before and 2 bars after it. The indicator also recognizes patterns where up to 4 bars after the center can have equal lows before requiring a higher low.
Trading Signals:
The indicator generates signals when price "sweeps" these fractal levels:
Buy Signal (Green Triangle) triggers when price sweeps a down fractal. This requires price to go BELOW the down fractal's low level and then CLOSE ABOVE it . This pattern often indicates a failed breakdown and potential reversal upward.
Sell Signal (Red Triangle) triggers when price sweeps an up fractal. This requires price to go ABOVE the up fractal's high level and then CLOSE BELOW it. This pattern often indicates a failed breakout and potential reversal downward.
Customizable Settings:
1. Periods (default: 10) - How many bars to check before and after the center bar (minimum value: 2)
2. Maximum Stored Fractals (default: 1) - How many fractal levels to keep in memory. Older levels are removed when this limit is reached to prevent excessive signals and maintain indicator performance.
Important Notes:
• The indicator checks the actual HIGH and LOW prices of each bar, not just closing prices
• Fractal levels are automatically removed after generating a signal to prevent repeated triggers
• Signals are only generated on bar close to avoid false triggers
• Alerts include the ticker symbol and the exact price level where the sweep occurred
Common Use Cases:
• Identifying potential reversal points
• Finding stop-hunt levels where price might reverse
• Setting stop-loss levels above up fractals or below down fractals
• Trading failed breakouts/breakdowns at fractal levels
RSI and Dev Advanced Volatility IndexEnglish Explanation of the "RSI and Dev Advanced Volatility Index" Pine Script Code
Understanding the Code
Purpose:
This Pine Script code creates a custom indicator that combines the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Deviation (DEV) to provide insights into market volatility.
Key Components:
* Deviation (DEV): Calculates the difference between the closing price and the 10-period simple moving average. This measures the extent to which the price deviates from its recent average, indicating volatility.
* RSI: The traditional RSI is then applied to the calculated deviations. This helps to smooth the data and identify overbought or oversold conditions in terms of volatility.
Calculation Steps:
* Deviation Calculation: The difference between the closing price and its 10-period simple moving average is calculated.
* RSI Calculation: The RSI is calculated on the deviations, providing a measure of the speed and change of volatility relative to recent volatility changes.
* Plotting:
* The RSI of the deviations is plotted on the chart.
* Horizontal lines are plotted at 50, 0, and 110 to visually represent different volatility zones.
* The area between the lines is filled with color to highlight low and high volatility regions.
Interpretation and Usage
* Volatility Analysis:
* High Volatility: When the RSI is above 50, it indicates high volatility, suggesting the market might be in a consolidation or trend reversal phase.
* Low Volatility: When the RSI is below 50, it indicates low volatility, suggesting a relatively calm market.
* Trading Signals:
* Buy Signal: When the RSI crosses above 50 from below, it might signal increasing volatility, which could be a buying opportunity.
* Sell Signal: When the RSI crosses below 50 from above, it might signal decreasing volatility, which could be a selling opportunity.
* Risk Management:
* By monitoring volatility, traders can better manage their risk. During periods of high volatility, traders might reduce their position size or adopt more conservative strategies.
Advantages
* Comprehensive: Combines RSI and DEV for a more holistic view of volatility.
* Sensitivity: Quickly responds to changes in market volatility.
* Visual Clarity: Color-coded zones provide a clear visual representation of different volatility levels.
Limitations
* Parameter Sensitivity: The indicator's performance is sensitive to parameter changes, such as the lookback period for the moving average.
* Lag: Like most technical indicators, it has some lag and might not capture every market movement.
* Not Predictive: It can only indicate current and past volatility, not future movements.
Summary
This custom indicator offers a valuable tool for analyzing market volatility. By combining RSI and DEV, it provides a more nuanced perspective on price fluctuations. However, it should be used in conjunction with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis for more robust trading decisions.
Key points to remember:
* Higher RSI values indicate higher volatility.
* Lower RSI values indicate lower volatility.
* Crossovers of the RSI line above or below 50 can provide potential trading signals.
* The indicator should be used in conjunction with other analysis tools for a more complete picture of the market.
Option Delta CandlesDescription:
The Option Delta Candles with EMA indicator is designed to help traders visualize option delta values as candlesticks, calculated using the Black-Scholes model. It provides a unique way to view the cumulative delta changes in a normalized format, making it easier to identify trends and reversals. The addition of an EMA (Exponential Moving Average) overlay helps smooth out the data for better trend analysis.
Features:
Customizable Inputs:
Risk-Free Interest Rate: Adjust the risk-free rate for more precise option calculations.
Volatility: Input the volatility of the underlying asset to reflect current market conditions.
Strike Price: Enter the desired strike price of the option.
Days to Expiration: Specify the days until the option's expiration.
EMA Length: Modify the length of the EMA to suit different time frames and trading styles.
Visual Styles:
Customizable candle colors for bullish and bearish candles.
Configurable border and wick colors for personalized chart aesthetics.
How It Works:
The indicator uses the Black-Scholes model to calculate the delta of a European call option. Delta measures the sensitivity of the option's price to changes in the price of the underlying asset.
A cumulative delta is calculated and normalized to create candlestick representations, providing a visual cue of how the option delta changes over time.
The scaled delta values are normalized between 0 and 1, allowing for a consistent view of relative strength and weakness.
The EMA overlay helps identify smoothed trends and potential reversals within the delta data.
Applications:
Trend Identification: The indicator helps spot trends and potential reversals in option delta movements.
Volatility Analysis: By visualizing option delta, traders can gain insight into how changes in volatility impact options pricing.
Advanced Analysis: This tool is ideal for options traders and analysts looking to integrate delta analysis into their strategies.
Use Cases:
Traders can use the candlestick view to understand shifts in market sentiment through delta changes.
Options Analysts can visualize delta fluctuations over time, aiding in complex options trading strategies.
Technical Analysts may combine this indicator with other tools to confirm signals and enhance trading decisions.
Indicator Configuration:
Input Settings:
Risk-free interest rate (as a percentage).
Volatility (standard deviation) in percentage.
Strike price of the option.
Days remaining until expiration.
EMA length for trend analysis.
Style Customization:
Select colors for bullish and bearish candles, border, and wicks.
Change the color of the EMA line to distinguish it on the chart.
Release Notes:
Initial Version: Includes full implementation of the Black-Scholes delta calculation with customizable EMA and normalized candlestick view.
Future Updates: Potential additions may include enhancements for put options and integrated alerts.
Forex Heatmap█ OVERVIEW
This indicator creates a dynamic grid display of currency pair cross rates (exchange rates) and percentage changes, emulating the Cross Rates and Heat Map widgets available on our Forex page. It provides a view of realtime exchange rates for all possible pairs derived from a user-specified list of currencies, allowing users to monitor the relative performance of several currencies directly on a TradingView chart.
█ CONCEPTS
Foreign exchange
The Foreign Exchange (Forex/FX) market is the largest, most liquid financial market globally, with an average daily trading volume of over 5 trillion USD. Open 24 hours a day, five days a week, it operates through a decentralized network of financial hubs in various major cities worldwide. In this market, participants trade currencies in pairs , where the listed price of a currency pair represents the exchange rate from a given base currency to a specific quote currency . For example, the "EURUSD" pair's price represents the amount of USD (quote currency) that equals one unit of EUR (base currency). Globally, the most traded currencies include the U.S. dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), and Australian dollar (AUD), with USD involved in over 87% of all trades.
Understanding the Forex market is essential for traders and investors, even those who do not trade currency pairs directly, because exchange rates profoundly affect global markets. For instance, fluctuations in the value of USD can impact the demand for U.S. exports or the earnings of companies that handle multinational transactions, either of which can affect the prices of stocks, indices, and commodities. Additionally, since many factors influence exchange rates, including economic policies and interest rate changes, analyzing the exchange rates across currencies can provide insight into global economic health.
█ FEATURES
Requesting a list of currencies
This indicator requests data for every valid currency pair combination from the list of currencies defined by the "Currency list" input in the "Settings/Inputs" tab. The list can contain up to six unique currency codes separated by commas, resulting in a maximum of 30 requested currency pairs.
For example, if the specified "Currency list" input is "CAD, USD, EUR", the indicator requests and displays relevant data for six currency pair combinations: "CADUSD", "USDCAD", "CADEUR", "EURCAD", "USDEUR", "EURUSD". See the "Grid display" section below to understand how the script organizes the requested information.
Each item in the comma-separated list must represent a valid currency code. If the "Currency list" input contains an invalid currency code, the corresponding cells for that currency in the "Cross rates" or "Heat map" grid show "NaN" values. If the list contains empty items, e.g., "CAD, ,EUR, ", the indicator ignores them in its data requests and calculations.
NOTE: Some uncommon currency pair combinations might not have data feeds available. If no available symbols provide the exchange rates between two specified currencies, the corresponding table cells show "NaN" results.
Realtime data
The indicator retrieves realtime market prices, daily price changes, and minimum tick sizes for all the currency pairs derived from the "Currency list" input. It updates the retrieved information shown in its grid display after new ticks become available to reflect the latest known values.
NOTE: Pine scripts execute on realtime bars only when new ticks are available in the chart's data feed. If no new updates are available from the chart's realtime feed, it may cause a delay in the data the indicator receives.
Grid display
This indicator displays the requested data for each currency pair in a table with cells organized as a grid. Each row name corresponds to a pair's base currency , and each column name corresponds to a quote currency . The cell at the intersection of a specific row and column shows the value requested from the corresponding currency pair.
For example, the cell at the intersection of a "EUR" row and "USD" column shows the data retrieved for the "EURUSD" currency pair, and the cell at the "USD" row and "EUR" column shows data for the inverse pair ("USDEUR").
Note that the main diagonal cells in the table, where rows and columns with the same names intersect, are blank. The exchange rate from one currency to itself is always 1, and no Forex symbols such as "EUREUR" exist.
The dropdown input at the top of the "Settings/Inputs" tab determines the type of information displayed in the table. Two options are available: "Cross rates" and "Heat map" . Both modes color their cells for light and dark themes separately based on the inputs in the "Colors" section.
Cross rates
When a user selects the "Cross rates" display mode, the table's cells show the latest available exchange rate for each currency pair, emulating the behavior of the Cross Rates widget. Each cell's value represents the amount of the quote currency (column name) that equals one unit of the base currency (row name). This display allows users to compare cross rates across currency pairs, and their inverses.
The background color of each cell changes based on the most recent update to the exchange rate, allowing users to monitor the direction of short-term fluctuations as they occur. By default, the background turns green (positive cell color) when the cross rate increases from the last recorded update and red (negative cell color) when the rate decreases. The cell's color reverts to the chart's background color after no new updates are available for 200 milliseconds.
Heat map
When a user selects the "Heat map" display mode, the table's cells show the latest daily percentage change of each currency pair, emulating the behavior of the Heat Map widget.
In this mode, the background color of each cell depends on the corresponding currency pair's daily performance. Heat maps typically use colors that vary in intensity based on the calculated values. This indicator uses the following color coding by default:
• Green (Positive cell color): Percentage change > +0.1%
• No color: Percentage change between 0.0% and +0.1%
• Bright red (Negative cell color): Percentage change < -0.1%
• Lighter/darker red (Minor negative cell color): Percentage change between 0.0% and -0.1%
█ FOR Pine Script™ CODERS
• This script utilizes dynamic requests to iteratively fetch information from multiple contexts using a single request.security() instance in the code. Previously, `request.*()` functions were not allowed within the local scopes of loops or conditional structures, and most `request.*()` function parameters, excluding `expression`, required arguments of a simple or weaker qualified type. The new `dynamic_requests` parameter in script declaration statements enables more flexibility in how scripts can use `request.*()` calls. When its value is `true`, all `request.*()` functions can accept series arguments for the parameters that define their requested contexts, and `request.*()` functions can execute within local scopes. See the Dynamic requests section of the Pine Script™ User Manual to learn more.
• Scripts can execute up to 40 unique `request.*()` function calls. A `request.*()` call is unique only if the script does not already call the same function with the same arguments. See this section of the User Manual's Limitations page for more information.
• Typically, when requesting higher-timeframe data with request.security() using barmerge.lookahead_on as the `lookahead` argument, the `expression` argument should use the history-referencing operator to offset the series, preventing lookahead bias on historical bars. However, the request.security() call in this script uses barmerge.lookahead_on without offsetting the `expression` because the script only displays results for the latest historical bar and all realtime bars, where there is no future information to leak into the past. Instead, using this call on those bars ensures each request fetches the most recent data available from each context.
• The request.security() instance in this script includes a `calc_bars_count` argument to specify that each request retrieves only a minimal number of bars from the end of each symbol's historical data feed. The script does not need to request all the historical data for each symbol because it only shows results on the last chart bar that do not depend on the entire time series. In this case, reducing the retrieved bars in each request helps minimize resource usage without impacting the calculated results.
Look first. Then leap.
Average Yield InversionDescription:
This script calculates and visualizes the average yield curve spread to identify whether the yield curve is inverted or normal. It takes into account short-term yields (1M, 3M, 6M, 2Y) and long-term yields (10Y, 30Y).
Positive values: The curve is normal, indicating long-term yields are higher than short-term yields. This often reflects economic growth expectations.
Negative values: The curve is inverted, meaning short-term yields are higher than long-term yields, a potential signal of economic slowdown or recession.
Key Features:
Calculates the average spread between long-term and short-term yields.
Displays a clear graph with a zero-line reference for quick interpretation.
Useful for tracking macroeconomic trends and potential market turning points.
This tool is perfect for investors, analysts, and economists who need to monitor yield curve dynamics at a glance.
XRP Comparative Price Action Indicator - Final VersionXRP Comparative Price Action Indicator - Final Version
The XRP Comparative Price Action Indicator provides a comprehensive visual analysis of XRP’s price movements relative to key cryptocurrencies and market indices. This indicator normalises price data across various assets, allowing traders and investors to assess XRP’s performance against its peers and major market influences at a glance.
Key Features:
• Normalised Price Data: Prices are scaled between 0.00 and 1.00,
enabling straightforward comparisons between different assets.
• Key Comparisons: Includes normalised prices for:
• XRP/USD (Bitstamp)
• XRP Dominance (CryptoCap)
• XRP/BTC (Bitstamp)
• BTC/USD (Bitstamp)
• BTC Dominance (CryptoCap)
• USDT Dominance (CryptoCap)
• S&P 500 (SPY)
• DXY (Dollar Index)
• ETH/USD (Bitstamp)
• ETH Dominance (CryptoCap)
• XRP/ETH (Binance)
• Visual Clarity: Each asset is plotted with distinct colors for easy identification,
with thicker lines enhancing visibility on the chart.
• Reference Lines: Optional horizontal lines indicate the minimum (0) and maximum (1) normalised values, providing clear reference points for analysis.
This indicator is ideal for traders looking to understand XRP’s relative performance, gauge market sentiment, and make informed trading decisions based on comparative price action.
Range Detect SystemTechnical analysis indicator designed to identify potential significant price ranges and the distribution of volume within those ranges. The system helps traders calculate POC and show volume history. Also detecting breakouts or potential reversals. System identifies ranges with a high probability of price consolidation and helps screen out extreme price moves or ranges that do not meet certain volatility thresholds.
⭕️ Key Features
Range Detection — identifies price ranges where consolidation is occurring.
Volume Profile Calculation — indicator calculates the Point of Control (POC) based on volume distribution within the identified range, enhancing the analysis of market structure.
Volume History — shows where the largest volume was traded from the center of the range. If the volume is greater in the upper part of the range, the color will be green. If the volume is greater in the lower part, the color will be red.
Range Filtering — Includes multi-level filtering options to avoid ranges that are too volatile or outside normal ranges.
Visual Customization — Shows graphical indicators for potential bullish or bearish crossovers at the upper and lower range boundaries. Users can choose the style and color of the lines, making it easier to visualize ranges and important levels on the chart.
Alerts — system will notify you when a range has been created and also when the price leaves the range.
⭕️ How it works
Extremes (Pivot Points) are taken as a basis, after confirming the relevance of the extremes we take the upper and lower extremes and form a range. We check if it does not violate a number of rules and filters, perform volume calculations, and only then is the range displayed.
Pivot points is a built-in feature that shows an extremum if it has not been updated N bars to the left and N bars to the right. Therefore, there is a delay depending on the bars specified to check, which allows for a more accurate range. This approach allows not to make unnecessary recalculations, which completely eliminates the possibility of redrawing or range changes.
⭕️ Settings
Left Bars and Right Bars — Allows you to define the point that is the highest among the specified number of bars to the left and right of this point.
Range Logic — Select from which point to draw the range. Maximums only, Minimums only or both.
Use Wick — Option to consider the wick of the candles when identifying Range.
Breakout Confirmation — The number of bars required to confirm a breakout, after which the range will close.
Minimum Range Length — Sets the minimum number of candles needed for a range to be considered valid.
Row Size — Number of levels to calculate POC. *Larger values increase the script load.
% Range Filter — Dont Show Range is than more N% of Average Range.
Multi Filter — Allows use of Bollinger Bands, ATR, SMA, or Highest-Lowest range channels for filtering ranges based on volatility.
Range Hit — Shows graphical labels when price hits the upper or lower boundaries of the range, signaling potential reversal or breakout points.
Range Start — Show points where Range was created.
Volume StatsDescription:
Volume Stats displays volume data and statistics for every day of the year, and is designed to work on "1D" timeframe. The data is displayed in a table with columns being months of the year, and rows being days of each month. By default, latest data is displayed, but you have an option to switch to data of the previous year as well.
The statistics displayed for each day is:
- volume
- % of total yearly volume
- % of total monthly volume
The statistics displayed for each column (month) is:
- monthly volume
- % of total yearly volume
- sentiment (was there more bullish or bearish volume?)
- min volume (on which day of the month was the min volume)
- max volume (on which day of the month was the max volume)
The cells change their colors depending on whether the volume is bullish or bearish, and what % of total volume the current cell has (either yearly or monthly). The header cells also change their color (based either on sentiment or what % of yearly volume the current month has).
This is the first (and free) version of the indicator, and I'm planning to create a "PRO" version of this indicator in future.
Parameters:
- Timezone
- Cell data -> which data to display in the cells (no data, volume or percentage)
- Highlight min and max volume -> if checked, cells with min and max volume (either monthly or yearly) will be highlighted with a dot or letter (depending on the "Cell data" input)
- Cell stats mode -> which data to use for color and % calculation (All data = yearly, Column = monthly)
- Display data from previous year -> if checked, the data from previous year will be used
- Header color is calculated from -> either sentiment or % of the yearly volume
- Reverse theme -> the table colors are automatically changed based on the "Dark mode" of Tradingview, this checkbox reverses the logic (so that darker colors will be used when "Dark mode" is off, and lighter colors when it's on)
- Hide logo -> hides the cat logo (PLEASE DO NOT HIDE THE CAT)
Conclusion:
Let me know what you think of the indicator. As I said, I'm planning to make a PRO version with more features, for which I already have some ideas, but if you have any suggestions, please let me know.
Multi-Currency Economic IndicatorCreating a Multi-Currency Economic Indicator that incorporates data for USD, JPY, AUD, GBP, CHF, NZD, and CAD will provide valuable insights into the economic health of these currencies. By plotting key economic indicators such as interest rates and allowing for customization, users can effectively analyze and make informed decisions.
If you have any further modifications or specific features you would like to add, feel free to let me know!
Trend Levels [ChartPrime]The Trend Levels indicator is designed to identify key trend levels (High, Mid, and Low) during market trends, based on real-time calculations of highest, lowest, and mid-level values over a customizable length. Additionally, the indicator calculates trend strength by measuring the ratio of candles closing above or below the midline, providing a clear view of the ongoing trend dynamics and strength.
⯁ KEY FEATURES AND HOW TO USE
⯌ Trend Shift Signals :
Trend shifts, based on highest and lowest values during input length. When high is == to highest it will change trend to up when low == lowest value it will be shift to down trend.
// Calculate highest and lowest over the specified length
h = ta.highest(length)
l = ta.lowest(length)
// Determine trend direction: if the current high is the highest value, set trend to true
if h == high
trend := true
// If the current low is the lowest value, set trend to false
if l == low
trend := false
Whenever the trend changes direction (from uptrend to downtrend or vice versa), the indicator provides visual cues in the form of arrows. This gives traders clear signals to identify potential trend reversals, enabling them to adjust their strategies accordingly.
⯌ Trend Level Calculation :
As soon as a trend is detected (uptrend or downtrend), the indicator starts calculating the highest, lowest, and mid-level values over the defined period. These levels are plotted on the chart as color-coded lines for easy visualization, allowing traders to quickly spot the key levels within a trend.
⯌ Midline Retests :
Throughout the trend, the mid-level line is often retested, acting as a potential zone for pullbacks or rejections. Traders can use these retests as opportunities for entering positions or confirming trend continuation. The chart shows how price frequently interacts with the midline, helping to identify important reaction levels.
⯌ Trend Strength Calculation :
The indicator measures the trend strength by calculating the delta between the number of candles closing above and below the midline. This percentage-based delta is displayed in real-time, providing a clear indication of whether the trend is gaining or losing momentum.
⯁ USER INPUTS
Length : Specifies the lookback period for calculating the highest and lowest values, which determines the key trend levels.
Candle Counting : Measures the number of candles closing above and below the midline to calculate the trend strength delta.
⯁ CONCLUSION
The Trend Levels indicator provides traders with a powerful tool for visualizing trend dynamics, key levels of support and resistance, and real-time trend strength. By identifying midline retests, tracking candle counts, and providing trend shift signals, this indicator can help traders make well-informed decisions during market trends.
VOLUME DIRECTION INDICATORDesigned for the 1-hour chart, this indicator shows:
Green Line: Volume when price rises, suggesting buying.
Red Line: Volume when price falls, indicating selling.
How to Use:
Watch for Crossover: When the Green Line moves above the Red, it might signal a budding uptrend.
Check Retracement: If the Green Line pulls back but stays above the Red, the uptrend could be strengthening.
Price Check: Look for a small price drop but not a reversal.
Trade Entry:
Enter at the high of the retracement candle.
Or wait for the Green Line to rise again.
For Precision: Draw a line at the retracement peak and switch to a shorter timeframe to find entry patterns above this line.
Remember: Use this with other tools for better trading decisions.
The Volume Direction Indicator provides a visual representation of market activity by assuming volume can be attributed to buying or selling based on price action within each bar. When the price closes higher than it opened, the volume for that period is considered as 'Bought Shares', plotted in green. Conversely, if the price closes lower, the volume is treated as 'Sold Shares', shown in red. This indicator resets daily to give a fresh perspective on trading activity each day.
Key Features:
Buying Pressure: Green line represents the cumulative volume during periods where the price increased.
Selling Pressure: Red line indicates the cumulative volume during price decreases.
Daily Reset: Accumulated values reset at the start of each new trading day, focusing on daily market sentiment.
Note: This indicator simplifies market dynamics by linking volume directly to price changes. It does not account for complex trading scenarios like short selling or market manipulations. Use this indicator as a tool to gauge general market direction and activity, not for precise transaction data.
Trend indicatorThe Trend Indicator script is a custom oscillator-based tool designed for identifying potential entry and exit points in the market. Using a combination of Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Relative Moving Average (RMA) calculations, it captures the trend direction and signals market momentum shifts. The indicator visually presents buy and sell signals and color-codes background conditions based on potential trend reversals, offering a clear and structured approach for trend-based trading strategies.
Key Components
1. User Inputs
Smoothing Length (smoothLength): The script allows the trader to input a smoothing length for adjusting the EMA and RMA calculations. This parameter fine-tunes the indicator's sensitivity to price movements, where lower values result in a more responsive oscillator, while higher values make it smoother and less reactive to minor fluctuations.
Source (source): This is the price data input for the script, defaulting to the close price but customizable to other price points (e.g., open, high, or low) based on user preference.
2. Smoothed Price Calculation
Using an Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the script smooths the selected source price to reduce noise and make trends clearer. The EMA’s calculation length is determined by the smoothLength input, and this moving average forms the baseline from which other components derive.
3. Oscillator Calculation
The oscillator value represents the relative strength or weakness of price momentum. Here, the oscillator is computed using Relative Moving Average (RMA), applied to the difference between the smoothed price and the SMA of the source price. The RMA further filters short-term fluctuations to identify the core trend direction.
This oscillator measures the divergence between the smoothed price and the SMA, providing insight into whether the market is experiencing bullish or bearish pressure.
4. Signal Line
The Signal Line is a Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the oscillator, using the same smoothLength parameter. The SMA smooths the oscillator’s values, offering a secondary reference that traders can use to identify changes in momentum when it crosses the oscillator line.
5. Buy and Sell Signals
Buy Signal (bullSignal): The script triggers a buy signal when the oscillator crosses above zero. This indicates that momentum may be shifting in favor of buyers, potentially signaling an uptrend.
Sell Signal (bearSignal): The script triggers a sell signal when the oscillator crosses below zero, suggesting a shift in momentum to the downside, potentially initiating a downtrend.
Visualization
1. Plotting the Oscillator and Signal Line
The oscillator line is plotted in blue, representing the current momentum of the price. The signal line, plotted in red, serves as a smoother baseline.
When the oscillator crosses the signal line, it hints at a potential trend shift, which can be a signal for cautious traders to pay attention to trend reversals.
2. Buy/Sell Signal Markers
Buy Signal Marker: A green label appears below the bar whenever the oscillator crosses above zero, indicating a potential buying opportunity.
Sell Signal Marker: A red label appears above the bar whenever the oscillator crosses below zero, marking a potential selling opportunity.
These visual cues make it easy for traders to spot signals directly on the chart without needing to watch the oscillator values closely.
3. Background Coloring for Trend Direction
To further aid in trend identification, the background color changes to green when a bullish signal is active and red during bearish signals. This coloring helps visually reinforce the current trend direction, allowing traders to spot prolonged uptrends or downtrends easily.
Trading Strategy Suggestions
This indicator can be adapted to various trading strategies. Here are a few practical suggestions:
Trend-Following Strategy:
When the oscillator crosses above zero (green background), it could indicate the start of a potential uptrend. Consider entering a long position on this signal and holding it until the oscillator crosses back below zero.
Conversely, a cross below zero (red background) may signal a downtrend, making it suitable for short positions or exiting long trades.
Cross-Confirmation with Signal Line:
Use the crossover of the oscillator and signal line to confirm trends. For example, when the oscillator is above zero and crosses above the signal line, it could reinforce a strong buy signal. Similarly, a cross below the signal line when the oscillator is below zero could strengthen a sell signal.
Combining with Other Indicators:
For added accuracy, combine this indicator with other trend-confirming tools like Moving Averages or Bollinger Bands to confirm the validity of buy/sell signals.
Risk Management:
Always set stop-losses below recent lows in uptrends or above recent highs in downtrends. This indicator is useful for entry and exit points but should always be paired with solid risk management practices.
The Trend Indicator is a comprehensive tool for identifying market momentum and potential reversal points. By smoothing out price data and using an oscillator to track momentum shifts, it offers traders a structured approach to trading trends. Its built-in buy/sell markers and background coloring make it visually accessible and easy to interpret at a glance. However, as with any indicator, it's most effective when combined with other strategies and a disciplined approach to risk management.
Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion by Kevin Davey Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion Strategy Description
The Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion Strategy is a popular trading approach based on the concept of volatility and market overreaction. The strategy leverages Bollinger Bands, which consist of an upper and lower band plotted around a central moving average, typically using standard deviations to measure volatility. When the price moves beyond these bands, it signals potential overbought or oversold conditions, and the strategy seeks to exploit a reversion back to the mean (the central band).
Strategy Components:
1. Bollinger Bands:
The bands are calculated using a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a multiple (usually 2.0) of the standard deviation of the asset’s price over the same period. The upper band represents the SMA plus two standard deviations, while the lower band is the SMA minus two standard deviations. The distance between the bands increases with higher volatility and decreases with lower volatility.
2. Mean Reversion:
Mean reversion theory suggests that, over time, prices tend to move back toward their historical average. In this strategy, a buy signal is triggered when the price falls below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a potential oversold condition. Conversely, the position is closed when the price rises back above the upper Bollinger Band, signaling an overbought condition.
Entry and Exit Logic:
Buy Condition: The strategy enters a long position when the price closes below the lower Bollinger Band, anticipating a mean reversion to the central band (SMA).
Sell Condition: The long position is exited when the price closes above the upper Bollinger Band, implying that the market is likely overbought and a reversal could occur.
This approach uses mean reversion principles, aiming to capitalize on short-term price extremes and volatility compression, often seen in sideways or non-trending markets. Scientific studies have shown that mean reversion strategies, particularly those based on volatility indicators like Bollinger Bands, can be effective in capturing small but frequent price reversals  .
Scientific Basis for Bollinger Bands:
Bollinger Bands, developed by John Bollinger, are widely regarded in both academic literature and practical trading as an essential tool for volatility analysis and mean reversion strategies. Research has shown that Bollinger Bands effectively identify relative price highs and lows, and can be used to forecast price volatility and detect potential breakouts . Studies in financial markets, such as those by Fernández-Rodríguez et al. (2003), highlight the efficacy of Bollinger Bands in detecting overbought or oversold conditions in various assets .
Who is Kevin Davey?
Kevin Davey is an award-winning algorithmic trader and highly regarded expert in developing and optimizing systematic trading strategies. With over 25 years of experience, Davey gained significant recognition after winning the prestigious World Cup Trading Championships multiple times, where he achieved triple-digit returns with minimal drawdown. His success has made him a key figure in algorithmic trading education, with a focus on disciplined and rule-based trading systems.
Market Bias IndicatorOverview
This Pine Script™ code generates a "Market Sentiment Dashboard" on TradingView, providing a visual summary of market sentiment across multiple timeframes. This tool aids traders in making informed decisions by displaying real-time sentiment analysis based on Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).
Key Features
Panel Positioning:
Custom Placement: Traders can position the dashboard at the top, middle, or bottom of the chart and align it to the left, centre, or right, ensuring optimal integration with other chart elements.
Customizable Colours:
Sentiment Colours: Users can define colours for bullish, bearish, and neutral market conditions, enhancing the dashboard's readability.
Text Colour: Customizable text colour ensures clarity against various background colours.
Label Size:
Scalable Labels: Adjustable label sizes (from very small to very large) ensure readability across different screen sizes and resolutions.
Market Sentiment Calculation:
EMA-Based Sentiment: The dashboard calculates sentiment using a 9-period EMA. If the EMA is higher than two bars ago, the sentiment is bullish; if lower, it's bearish; otherwise, it's neutral.
Multiple Timeframes: Sentiment is calculated for several timeframes: 30 minute, 1 hour, 4 hour, 6 hour, 8 hour, 12 hour, 1 day, and 1 week. This broad analysis provides a comprehensive view of market conditions.
Dynamic Table:
Structured Display: The dashboard uses a table to organize and display sentiment data clearly.
Real-Time Updates: The table updates in real-time, providing traders with up-to-date market information.
How It Works
EMA Calculation: The script requests EMA(9) values for each specified timeframe and compares the current EMA with the EMA from two bars ago to determine market sentiment.
Colour Coding: Depending on the sentiment (Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral), the corresponding cell in the table is color-coded using predefined colours.
Table Display: The table displays the timeframe and corresponding sentiment, allowing traders to quickly assess market trends.
Benefits to Traders
Quick Assessment: Traders can quickly evaluate market sentiment across multiple timeframes without switching charts or manually calculating indicators.
Enhanced Visualization: The color-coded sentiment display makes it easy to identify trends at a glance.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Provides a broad view of short-term and long-term market trends, helping traders confirm trends and avoid false signals.
This dashboard enhances the overall trading experience by providing a comprehensive, customizable, and easy-to-read summary of market sentiment.
Usage Instructions
Add the Script to Your Chart: Apply the "Market Sentiment Dashboard" indicator to your TradingView chart.
Customize Settings: Adjust the panel position, colours, and label sizes to fit your preferences.
Interpret Sentiment: Use the color-coded table to quickly understand the market sentiment across different timeframes and make informed trading decisions.
Value at Risk [OmegaTools]The "Value at Risk" (VaR) indicator is a powerful financial risk management tool that helps traders estimate the potential losses in a portfolio over a specified period of time, given a certain level of confidence. VaR is widely used by financial institutions, traders, and risk managers to assess the probability of portfolio losses in both normal and volatile market conditions. This TradingView script implements a comprehensive VaR calculation using several models, allowing users to visualize different risk scenarios and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
Concept of Value at Risk
Value at Risk (VaR) is a statistical technique used to measure the likelihood of losses in a portfolio or financial asset due to market risks. In essence, it answers the question: "What is the maximum potential loss that could occur in a given portfolio over a specific time horizon, with a certain confidence level?" For instance, if a portfolio has a one-day 95% VaR of $10,000, it means that there is a 95% chance the portfolio will not lose more than $10,000 in a single day. Conversely, there is a 5% chance of losing more than $10,000. VaR is a key risk management tool for portfolio managers and traders because it quantifies potential losses in monetary terms, allowing for better-informed decision-making.
There are several ways to calculate VaR, and this indicator script incorporates three of the most commonly used models:
Historical VaR: This approach uses historical returns to estimate potential losses. It is based purely on past price data, assuming that the past distribution of returns is indicative of future risks.
Variance-Covariance VaR: This model assumes that asset returns follow a normal distribution and that the risk can be summarized using the mean and standard deviation of past returns. It is a parametric method that is widely used in financial risk management.
Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) VaR: In this model, recent data points are given more weight than older data. This dynamic approach allows the VaR estimation to react more quickly to changes in market volatility, which is particularly useful during periods of market stress. This model uses the Exponential Weighted Moving Average Volatility Model.
How the Script Works
The script starts by offering users a set of customizable input settings. The first input allows the user to choose between two main calculation modes: "All" or "OCT" (Only Current Timeframe). In the "All" mode, the script calculates VaR using all available methodologies—Historical, Variance-Covariance, and EWMA—providing a comprehensive risk overview. The "OCT" mode narrows the calculation to the current timeframe, which can be particularly useful for intraday traders who need a more focused view of risk.
The next input is the lookback window, which defines the number of historical periods used to calculate VaR. Commonly used lookback periods include 21 days (approximately one month), 63 days (about three months), and 252 days (roughly one year), with the script supporting up to 504 days for more extended historical analysis. A longer lookback period provides a more comprehensive picture of risk but may be less responsive to recent market conditions.
The confidence level is another important setting in the script. This represents the probability that the loss will not exceed the VaR estimate. Standard confidence levels are 90%, 95%, and 99%. A higher confidence level results in a more conservative risk estimate, meaning that the calculated VaR will reflect a more extreme loss scenario.
In addition to these core settings, the script allows users to customize the visual appearance of the indicator. For example, traders can choose different colors for "Bullish" (Risk On), "Bearish" (Risk Off), and "Neutral" phases, as well as colors for highlighting "Breaks" in the data, where returns exceed the calculated VaR. These visual cues make it easy to identify periods of heightened risk at a glance.
The actual VaR calculation is broken down into several models, starting with the Historical VaR calculation. This is done by computing the logarithmic returns of the asset's closing prices and then using linear interpolation to determine the percentile corresponding to the desired confidence level. This percentile represents the potential loss in the asset over the lookback period.
Next, the script calculates Variance-Covariance VaR using the mean and standard deviation of the historical returns. The standard deviation is multiplied by a z-score corresponding to the chosen confidence level (e.g., 1.645 for 95% confidence), and the resulting value is subtracted from the mean return to arrive at the VaR estimate.
The EWMA VaR model uses the EWMA for the sigma parameter, the standard deviation, obtaining a specific dynamic in the volatility. It is particularly useful in volatile markets where recent price behavior is more indicative of future risk than older data.
For traders interested in intraday risk management, the script provides several methods to adjust VaR calculations for lower timeframes. By using intraday returns and scaling them according to the chosen timeframe, the script provides a dynamic view of risk throughout the trading day. This is especially important for short-term traders who need to manage their exposure during high-volatility periods within the same day. The script also incorporates an EWMA model for intraday data, which gives greater weight to the most recent intraday price movements.
In addition to calculating VaR, the script also attempts to detect periods where the asset's returns exceed the estimated VaR threshold, referred to as "Breaks." When the returns breach the VaR limit, the script highlights these instances on the chart, allowing traders to quickly identify periods of extreme risk. The script also calculates the average of these breaks and displays it for comparison, helping traders understand how frequently these high-risk periods occur.
The script further visualizes the risk scenario using a risk phase classification system. Depending on the level of risk, the script categorizes the market as either "Risk On," "Risk Off," or "Risk Neutral." In "Risk On" mode, the market is considered bullish, and the indicator displays a green background. In "Risk Off" mode, the market is bearish, and the background turns red. If the market is neither strongly bullish nor bearish, the background turns neutral, signaling a balanced risk environment.
Traders can customize whether they want to see this risk phase background, along with toggling the display of the various VaR models, the intraday methods, and the break signals. This flexibility allows traders to tailor the indicator to their specific needs, whether they are day traders looking for quick intraday insights or longer-term investors focused on historical risk analysis.
The "Risk On" and "Risk Off" phases calculated by this Value at Risk (VaR) script introduce a novel approach to market risk assessment, offering traders an advanced toolset to gauge market sentiment and potential risk levels dynamically. These risk phases are built on a combination of traditional VaR methodologies and proprietary logic to create a more responsive and intuitive way to manage exposure in both normal and volatile market conditions. This method of classifying market conditions into "Risk On," "Risk Off," or "Risk Neutral" is not something that has been traditionally associated with VaR, making it a groundbreaking addition to this indicator.
How the "Risk On" and "Risk Off" Phases Are Calculated
In typical VaR implementations, the focus is on calculating the potential losses at a given confidence level without providing an overall market outlook. This script, however, introduces a unique risk classification system that takes the output of various VaR models and translates it into actionable signals for traders, marking whether the market is in a Risk On, Risk Off, or Risk Neutral phase.
The Risk On and Risk Off phases are primarily determined by comparing the current returns of the asset to the average VaR calculated across several different methods, including Historical VaR, Variance-Covariance VaR, and EWMA VaR. Here's how the process works:
1. Threshold Setting and Effect Calculation: The script first computes the average VaR using the selected models. It then checks whether the current returns (expressed as a negative value to signify loss) exceed the average VaR value. If the current returns surpass the calculated VaR threshold, this indicates that the actual market risk is higher than expected, signaling a potential shift in market conditions.
2. Break Analysis: In addition to monitoring whether returns exceed the average VaR, the script counts the number of instances within the lookback period where this breach occurs. This is referred to as the "break effect." For each period in the lookback window, the script checks whether the returns surpass the calculated VaR threshold and increments a counter. The percentage of periods where this breach occurs is then calculated as the "effect" or break percentage.
3. Dual Effect Check (if "Double" Risk Scenario is selected): When the user chooses the "Double" risk scenario mode, the script performs two layers of analysis. First, it calculates the effect of returns exceeding the VaR threshold for the current timeframe. Then, it calculates the effect for the lower intraday timeframe as well. Both effects are compared to the user-defined confidence level (e.g., 95%). If both effects exceed the confidence level, the market is deemed to be in a high-risk situation, thus triggering a Risk Off phase. If both effects fall below the confidence level, the market is classified as Risk On.
4. Risk Phases Determination: The final risk phase is determined by analyzing these effects in relation to the confidence level:
- Risk On: If the calculated effect of breaks is lower than the confidence level (e.g., fewer than 5% of periods show returns exceeding the VaR threshold for a 95% confidence level), the market is considered to be in a relatively safe state, and the script signals a "Risk On" phase. This is indicative of bullish conditions where the potential for extreme loss is minimal.
- Risk Off: If the break effect exceeds the confidence level (e.g., more than 5% of periods show returns breaching the VaR threshold), the market is deemed to be in a high-risk state, and the script signals a "Risk Off" phase. This indicates bearish market conditions where the likelihood of significant losses is higher.
- Risk Neutral: If the break effect hovers near the confidence level or if there is no clear trend indicating a shift toward either extreme, the market is classified as "Risk Neutral." In this phase, neither bulls nor bears are dominant, and traders should remain cautious.
The phase color that the script uses helps visualize these risk phases. The background will turn green in Risk On conditions, red in Risk Off conditions, and gray in Risk Neutral phases, providing immediate visual feedback on market risk. In addition to this, when the "Double" risk scenario is selected, the background will only turn green or red if both the current and intraday timeframes confirm the respective risk phase. This double-checking process ensures that traders are only given a strong signal when both longer-term and short-term risks align, reducing the likelihood of false signals.
A New Way of Using Value at Risk
This innovative Risk On/Risk Off classification, based on the interaction between VaR thresholds and market returns, represents a significant departure from the traditional use of Value at Risk as a pure risk measurement tool. Typically, VaR is employed as a backward-looking measure of risk, providing a static estimate of potential losses over a given timeframe with no immediate actionable feedback on current market conditions. This script, however, dynamically interprets VaR results to create a forward-looking, real-time signal that informs traders whether they are operating in a favorable (Risk On) or unfavorable (Risk Off) environment.
By incorporating the "break effect" analysis and allowing users to view the VaR breaches as a percentage of past occurrences, the script adds a predictive element that can be used to time market entries and exits more effectively. This **dual-layer risk analysis**, particularly when using the "Double" scenario mode, adds further granularity by considering both current timeframe and intraday risks. Traders can therefore make more informed decisions not just based on historical risk data, but on how the market is behaving in real-time relative to those risk benchmarks.
This approach transforms the VaR indicator from a risk monitoring tool into a decision-making system that helps identify favorable trading opportunities while alerting users to potential market downturns. It provides a more holistic view of market conditions by combining both statistical risk measurement and intuitive phase-based market analysis. This level of integration between VaR methodologies and real-time signal generation has not been widely seen in the world of trading indicators, marking this script as a cutting-edge tool for risk management and market sentiment analysis.
I would like to express my sincere gratitude to @skewedzeta for his invaluable contribution to the final script. From generating fresh ideas to applying his expertise in reviewing the formula, his support has been instrumental in refining the outcome.
Sweep + MSS# Sweep + MSS Indicator
This indicator identifies market sweeps and Market Structure Shifts (MSS) to help traders recognize potential trend changes and market manipulations.
How it works:
1. Sweep Detection:
- Identifies when price briefly moves beyond a recent high/low (pivot point) and then reverses.
- Bullish sweep: Price drops below a recent low, then closes above it.
- Bearish sweep: Price rises above a recent high, then closes below it.
2. Market Structure Shift (MSS):
- Occurs when price action invalidates a previous sweep level.
- Bullish MSS: Price closes above a bearish sweep level.
- Bearish MSS: Price closes below a bullish sweep level.
Key Features:
- Customizable pivot lookback length for sweep detection
- Minimum bar requirement after a sweep before MSS can trigger
- One MSS per sweep level to avoid multiple signals
- Visual representation with lines connecting sweep points to MSS triggers
- Emoji labels for easy identification (🐂-MSS for bullish, 🐻-MSS for bearish)
Logic Behind MSS:
The MSS aims to identify potential trend changes by recognizing when the market invalidates a previous sweep level. This often indicates a shift in market structure, suggesting that the previous trend may be weakening or reversing.
- A bullish MSS occurs when the price closes above a bearish sweep level, potentially signaling a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment.
- A bearish MSS occurs when the price closes below a bullish sweep level, potentially signaling a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment.
By requiring a minimum number of bars between the sweep and the MSS, the indicator helps filter out noise and focuses on more significant structural changes in the market.
This indicator can be a valuable tool for traders looking to identify potential trend changes and entry/exit points based on market structure analysis.
