panpanXBT BTC Risk MetricThis is the Bitcoin Risk Metric. Inspired by many power law analysts, this script assigns a risk value to the price of Bitcoin. The model uses regression of 'fair value' data to assign risk values and residual analysis to account for diminishing returns as time goes on. This indicator is for long-term investors looking to maximise their returns by highlighting periods of under and overvaluation for Bitcoin.
This is a companion script for panpanXBT BTC Risk Metric Oscillator . Use this indicator in tandem to achieve the view shown in the chart above.
Please note, this indicator will only work on BTCUSD charts but will work on any timeframe.
DISCLAIMER: The product on offer presents a novel way to view the price history of Bitcoin. It should not be relied upon solely to inform financial decisions. What you do with the information is entirely up to you. Please thoroughly consider your decisions and consult many different sources to make sure you're making the most well-informed decision.
### How to Interpret
The risk scale goes from 0 to 100,
Blue - 0 being low risk, and
Red - 100 being high risk.
Low risk values represent periods of historical undervaluation, while high values represent overvaluation. These periods are marked by a colourscale from blue to red.
### Use Cases and Best Practice
A dynamic DCA strategy would work best with this indicator, whereby an amount of capital is deployed/retired on a regular basis. This amount deployed grows or shrinks depending on the proximity of the risk level to the extremes (0 and 100).
Let's say you have a maximum of $500 to deploy per month.
When risk is between 0 and 10, you could deploy the full $500.
When risk is between 10 and 20, you could deploy $400.
When risk is between 20 and 30, you could deploy $300.
When risk is between 30 and 40, you could deploy $200.
When risk is between 40 and 50, you could deploy $100.
Conversely, when risk is above 50, you could:
Sell 1/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 50 and 60.
Sell 2/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 60 and 70.
Sell 3/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 70 and 80.
Sell 4/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 80 and 90.
Sell 5/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 90 and 100.
This framework allows the user to accumulate during periods of undervaluation and derisk during periods of overvaluation, capturing returns in the process.
In contrast, simply setting limit orders at 0 and 100 would yield the absolute maximum returns, however there is no guarantee price will reach these levels (see 2018 where the bear market bottomed out at 20 risk, or 2021 where price topped out at 97 risk).
### Caveats
"All models are wrong, some are useful"
No model is perfect. No model can predict exactly what price will do as there are too many factors at play that determine the outcome. We use models as a guide to make better-informed decisions, as opposed to shooting in the dark. This model is not a get rich quick scheme, but rather a tool to help inform decisions should you consider investing. This model serves to highlight price extremities, which could present opportune times to invest.
### Conclusion
This indicator aims to highlight periods of extreme values for Bitcoin, which may provide an edge in the market for long-term investors.
Thank you for your interest in this indicator. If you have any questions, recommendations or feedback, please leave a comment or drop me a message on TV or twitter. I aim to be as transparent as possible with this project, so please seek clarification if you are unsure about anything.
