SuperTrader Trend Analysis and Trade Study DashboardSuperTrader Trend Analysis and Trade Study Dashboard
Overview
This script offers a multi-faceted look at market behavior. It combines signals from different momentum indicators, daily cross checks, and a specialized dashboard to reveal trend strength, potential divergences, and how far price has traveled from its recent averages.
Three Musketeers Method
This script uses a special set of three indicators (the “Three Musketeers”) to determine bullish or bearish pressure on the current chart.
Trend Condition – Compares fast vs. slow EMAs (50 and 200) and checks which side of the line price is favoring.
Mean Reversion Condition – Watches RSI crossing typical oversold or overbought thresholds (e.g., crossing above 30 or below 70).
Bollinger Condition – Checks whether price pushes above/below the Bollinger Bands (based on a 20 SMA + standard deviations).
When at least two out of these three conditions align in a bullish way, the script issues a Buy Signal . Conversely, if at least two align in a bearish way, a Sell Signal is triggered. This “Three Musketeers” synergy ensures multiple confirmations before calling a potential market turn.
Mag 8 Daily Performance
The script tracks eight highly influential stocks (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, NFLX, NVDA, TSLA, META, MSFT) to see which are green (higher) or red (lower) compared to yesterday’s close. It then prints a quick tally – helpful in gauging overall market mood via these major players.
Golden / Death Cross Signals
On a daily time frame, the script notes when the 50-day SMA crosses above or below the 200-day SMA. A “Golden Cross” often signals rising momentum, while a “Death Cross” can hint at oncoming weakness.
RSI & Divergence Checks
RSI helps identify hidden turning points. Whenever a bullish or bearish divergence is spotted, the script updates you via a concise readout.
Hardcoded Settings
EMA lengths for trend checks, Bollinger parameters, etc., are locked in, letting you focus on adjusting only the pivotal study inputs (e.g., RSI length, VIDYA momentum).
VIDYA Trend Line & Fill
Built on an adaptive Variable Index Dynamic Average, it plots a line that quickly reacts to changing momentum. Users can set a “Trend Band Distance” to mark ATR-based thresholds around that line, identifying possible breakouts or breakdowns.
YoYo Distance
This concept measures how far price strays from SMA(10). If it’s too far, the script colors your display to indicate potential snapbacks.
Gap Up/Down Probability
By weighing volume, MACD signals, and whether price sits above/below its midrange, the script estimates probabilities of a gap up or down on the next daily candle.
Table Output & Trend Label
Turning on Show Table Widget reveals a quick dashboard on the chart detailing RSI, CCI, divergences, bull/bear scores, and more. A label on the last bar further summarizes overall trend, gap distance, and the Mag 8 snapshot – perfect for a fast read of current market posture.
Use this script to unify multiple signals in one place, see how far price has ventured from typical patterns, and get daily cross signals plus real-time bullish/bearish calls – all at a glance.
Forecasting
Smart % Levels📈 Smart % Levels – Visualize Significant Percentage Moves
What it does:
This indicator plots horizontal levels based on a percentage change from the previous day's close (or open, if selected). It allows traders to visualize price movements relative to meaningful thresholds like ±1%, ±2%, etc.
What makes it different:
Unlike other level indicators, Smart % Levels only displays the relevant levels based on current price action. This avoids clutter by showing only the levels that are being approached or crossed by the current price. It's a clean and dynamic way to visualize key price zones for intraday analysis.
How it works:
- Select between using the previous day's Close or Open as the reference
- Choose the percentage spacing between levels (e.g., 1%, 0.5%, etc.)
- Enable optional labels to see the exact percentage of each level
- Automatically filters levels to only show those between yesterday's price and today's current price
- Includes customization for colors, line styles, widths, and opacity
Best for:
Day traders and scalpers who want a quick, clean view of how far the current price has moved from yesterday’s reference, without being overwhelmed by unnecessary lines.
Extra notes:
- The levels are recalculated each day at the market open
- All graphics reset at the start of each session to maintain clarity
- This script avoids repainting by only plotting levels relative to available historical data (no lookahead)
This tool is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.
Daily ProtractorDaily Protractor Indicator
Overview
The Daily Protractor is a visually intuitive tool designed for traders who want to analyze price action through angular measurements on a 5-minute chart. By overlaying a protractor on the chart, this indicator helps identify potential support, resistance, and trend directions based on angular relationships from the first 5-minute candle of each day. It’s particularly useful for intraday traders looking to incorporate geometric analysis into their strategies for spot or strike charts.
Key Features
Dynamic Protractor Overlay: Draws a protractor centered on the low of the first 5-minute candle of each day, with customizable radius in both bars (horizontal) and price units (vertical).
Angular Measurements: Displays angles in 5-degree increments, covering a full 360° circle or a 105° to -105° (91° to 269°) half-circle, depending on user preference.
Customizable Display:
Adjust the number of days to display protractors (up to 5 days).
Customize line colors for different angle ranges (0° to 180°, 180° to 360°, and 0° specifically).
Modify line thickness, label size, and label colors for better visibility.
Center Point Highlight: Marks the center of each protractor with a labeled point for easy reference.
Efficient Design:
Optimized with max_lines_count, max_labels_count, and max_bars_back to ensure smooth performance on TradingView.
How It Works
The indicator identifies the first 5-minute candle of each day and uses its low price as the center point for a protractor. It then draws lines at 5-degree intervals, radiating from the center, with each line representing an angle from 0° to 360°. Labels at the end of each line display the angle in degrees, with negative values shown for angles between 195° and 345° (e.g., 270° is displayed as -90°). The protractor’s radius can be adjusted in both time (bars) and price units, allowing traders to scale the tool to their chart’s characteristics.
Usage Instructions
Add to Chart:
Apply the indicator to a 5-minute chart of your chosen instrument (e.g., spot or strike charts).
Interpret the Protractor:
Use the angular lines to identify potential price levels or trend directions.
The 0° line (horizontal) can act as a reference for horizontal support/resistance.
Angles between 0° and 180° (upper half) and 180° and 360° (lower half) are color-coded for quick identification.
Customize Settings:
Toggle the Show 105° to -105° option to display a half-circle (91° to 269°) instead of a full 360° protractor.
Adjust the Radius in Bars and Radius in Price Units to scale the protractor to your chart.
Set the Maximum Days to Display to control how many daily protractors are shown.
Modify line thickness, colors, and label settings to suit your visual preferences.
Customization Options
Protractor Settings:
Show 105° to -105° (91° to 269°): Toggle between a full circle or a half-circle protractor.
Radius in Bars: Set the horizontal span of the protractor (default: 75 bars).
Radius in Price Units: Set the vertical span in price units (default: 1000.0).
Maximum Days to Display: Limit the number of protractors shown (default: 5 days).
Line Settings:
Line Thickness: Adjust the thickness of the protractor lines (1 or 2).
Line Color (0° to 180°): Color for the upper half (default: light blue).
Line Color (180° to 360°): Color for the lower half (default: light red).
Line Color (0°): Color for the 0° line (default: black).
Label Settings:
Label Size: Choose between small, normal, or large labels.
Label Color (0° to 180°): Color for labels in the upper half (default: red).
Label Color (180° to 360°): Color for labels in the lower half (default: green).
Notes
The indicator was designed with the help of Grok3 for use on 5-minute charts only, as it relies on the first 5-minute candle of the day to set the protractor’s center.
For best results, adjust the radius settings to match the volatility and price scale of your instrument. However, where the price is in single digits it is advised to switch off the labels or I would suggest not to use the same.
The protractor can be used alongside other technical tools to confirm trends, reversals, or key price levels.
Limitations: This cannot be used on instruments that trade for more than 75 candles with a timeframe of 5 minutes as the angles would not cover the entire trading window. I am working coming up with a script to address this limitation.
Feedback
I’d love to hear your thoughts! If you find the Daily Protractor helpful or have suggestions for improvements, please leave a comment or reach out. Happy trading!
Composite Reversal IndicatorOverview
The "Composite Reversal Indicator" aggregates five technical signals to produce a composite score that ranges from -5 (strongly bearish) to +5 (strongly bullish). These signals come from:
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
Accumulation/Distribution (A/D)
Volume relative to its moving average
Price proximity to support and resistance levels
Each signal contributes a value of +1 (bullish), -1 (bearish), or 0 (neutral) to the total score. The raw score is plotted as a histogram, and a smoothed version is plotted as a colored line to highlight trends.
Step-by-Step Explanation
1. Customizable Inputs
The indicator starts with user-defined inputs that allow traders to tweak its settings. These inputs include:
RSI: Length (e.g., 14), oversold level (e.g., 30), and overbought level (e.g., 70).
MACD: Fast length (e.g., 12), slow length (e.g., 26), and signal length (e.g., 9).
Volume: Moving average length (e.g., 20) and multipliers for high (e.g., 1.5) and low (e.g., 0.5) volume thresholds.
Price Levels: Period for support and resistance (e.g., 50) and proximity percentage (e.g., 2%).
Score Smoothing: Length for smoothing the score (e.g., 5).
These inputs make the indicator adaptable to different trading styles, assets, or timeframes.
2. Indicator Calculations
The script calculates five key indicators using the input parameters:
RSI: Measures momentum and identifies overbought or oversold conditions.
Formula: rsi = ta.rsi(close, rsi_length)
Example: With a length of 14, it analyzes the past 14 bars of closing prices.
MACD: Tracks trend and momentum using two exponential moving averages (EMAs).
Formula: = ta.macd(close, macd_fast, macd_slow, macd_signal)
Components: MACD line (fast EMA - slow EMA), signal line (EMA of MACD line).
Accumulation/Distribution (A/D): A volume-based indicator showing buying or selling pressure.
Formula: ad = ta.accdist
Reflects cumulative flow based on price and volume.
Volume Moving Average: A simple moving average (SMA) of trading volume.
Formula: vol_ma = ta.sma(volume, vol_ma_length)
Example: A 20-bar SMA smooths volume data.
Support and Resistance Levels: Key price levels based on historical lows and highs.
Formulas:
support = ta.lowest(low, price_level_period)
resistance = ta.highest(high, price_level_period)
Example: Over 50 bars, it finds the lowest low and highest high.
These calculations provide the raw data for generating signals.
3. Signal Generation
Each indicator produces a signal based on specific conditions:
RSI Signal:
+1: RSI < oversold level (e.g., < 30) → potential bullish reversal.
-1: RSI > overbought level (e.g., > 70) → potential bearish reversal.
0: Otherwise.
Logic: Extreme RSI values suggest price may reverse.
MACD Signal:
+1: MACD line > signal line → bullish momentum.
-1: MACD line < signal line → bearish momentum.
0: Equal.
Logic: Crossovers indicate trend shifts.
A/D Signal:
+1: Current A/D > previous A/D → accumulation (bullish).
-1: Current A/D < previous A/D → distribution (bearish).
0: Unchanged.
Logic: Rising A/D shows buying pressure.
Volume Signal:
+1: Volume > high threshold (e.g., 1.5 × volume MA) → strong activity (bullish).
-1: Volume < low threshold (e.g., 0.5 × volume MA) → weak activity (bearish).
0: Otherwise.
Logic: Volume spikes often confirm reversals.
Price Signal:
+1: Close near support (within proximity %, e.g., 2%) → potential bounce.
-1: Close near resistance (within proximity %) → potential rejection.
0: Otherwise.
Logic: Price near key levels signals reversal zones.
4. Composite Score
The raw composite score is the sum of the five signals:
Formula: score = rsi_signal + macd_signal + ad_signal + vol_signal + price_signal
Range: -5 (all signals bearish) to +5 (all signals bullish).
Purpose: Combines multiple perspectives into one number.
5. Smoothed Score
A smoothed version of the score reduces noise:
Formula: score_ma = ta.sma(score, score_ma_length)
Example: With a length of 5, it averages the score over 5 bars.
Purpose: Highlights the trend rather than short-term fluctuations.
6. Visualization
The indicator plots two elements:
Raw Score: A gray histogram showing the composite score per bar.
Style: plot.style_histogram
Color: Gray.
Smoothed Score: A line that changes color:
Green: Score > 0 (bullish).
Red: Score < 0 (bearish).
Gray: Score = 0 (neutral).
Style: plot.style_line, thicker line (e.g., linewidth=2).
These visuals make it easy to spot potential reversals.
How It Works Together
The indicator combines signals from:
RSI: Momentum extremes.
MACD: Trend shifts.
A/D: Buying/selling pressure.
Volume: Confirmation of moves.
Price Levels: Key reversal zones.
By summing these into a composite score, it filters out noise and provides a unified signal. A high positive score (e.g., +3 to +5) suggests a bullish reversal, while a low negative score (e.g., -3 to -5) suggests a bearish reversal. The smoothed score helps traders focus on the trend.
Practical Use
Bullish Reversal: Smoothed score is green and rising → look for buying opportunities.
Bearish Reversal: Smoothed score is red and falling → consider selling or shorting.
Neutral: Score near 0 → wait for clearer signals.
Traders can adjust inputs to suit their strategy, making it versatile for stocks, forex, or crypto.
Pivot S/R with Volatility Filter## *📌 Indicator Purpose*
This indicator identifies *key support/resistance levels* using pivot points while also:
✅ Detecting *high-volume liquidity traps* (stop hunts)
✅ Filtering insignificant pivots via *ATR (Average True Range) volatility*
✅ Tracking *test counts and breakouts* to measure level strength
---
## *⚙ SETTINGS – Detailed Breakdown*
### *1️⃣ ◆ General Settings*
#### *🔹 Pivot Length*
- *Purpose:* Determines how many bars to analyze when identifying pivots.
- *Usage:*
- *Low values (5-20):* More pivots, better for scalping.
- *High values (50-200):* Fewer but stronger levels for swing trading.
- *Example:*
- Pivot Length = 50 → Only the most significant highs/lows over 50 bars are marked.
#### *🔹 Test Threshold (Max Test Count)*
- *Purpose:* Sets how many times a level can be tested before being invalidated.
- *Example:*
- Test Threshold = 3 → After 3 tests, the level is ignored (likely to break).
#### *🔹 Zone Range*
- *Purpose:* Creates a price buffer around pivots (±0.001 by default).
- *Why?* Markets often respect "zones" rather than exact prices.
---
### *2️⃣ ◆ Volatility Filter (ATR)*
#### *🔹 ATR Period*
- *Purpose:* Smoothing period for Average True Range calculation.
- *Default:* 14 (standard for volatility measurement).
#### *🔹 ATR Multiplier (Min Move)*
- *Purpose:* Requires pivots to show *meaningful price movement*.
- *Formula:* Min Move = ATR × Multiplier
- *Example:*
- ATR = 10 pips, Multiplier = 1.5 → Only pivots with *15+ pip swings* are valid.
#### *🔹 Show ATR Filter Info*
- Displays current ATR and minimum move requirements on the chart.
---
### *3️⃣ ◆ Volume Analysis*
#### *🔹 Volume Change Threshold (%)*
- *Purpose:* Filters for *unusual volume spikes* (institutional activity).
- *Example:*
- Threshold = 1.2 → Requires *120% of average volume* to confirm signals.
#### *🔹 Volume MA Period*
- *Purpose:* Lookback period for "normal" volume calculation.
---
### *4️⃣ ◆ Wick Analysis*
#### *🔹 Wick Length Threshold (Ratio)*
- *Purpose:* Ensures rejection candles have *long wicks* (strong reversals).
- *Formula:* Wick Ratio = (Upper Wick + Lower Wick) / Candle Range
- *Example:*
- Threshold = 0.6 → 60% of the candle must be wicks.
#### *🔹 Min Wick Size (ATR %)*
- *Purpose:* Filters out small wicks in volatile markets.
- *Example:*
- ATR = 20 pips, MinWickSize = 1% → Wicks under *0.2 pips* are ignored.
---
### *5️⃣ ◆ Display Settings*
- *Show Zones:* Toggles support/resistance shaded areas.
- *Show Traps:* Highlights liquidity traps (▲/▼ symbols).
- *Show Tests:* Displays how many times levels were tested.
- *Zone Transparency:* Adjusts opacity of zones.
---
## *🎯 Practical Use Cases*
### *1️⃣ Liquidity Trap Detection*
- *Scenario:* Price spikes *above resistance* then reverses sharply.
- *Requirements:*
- Long wick (Wick Ratio > 0.6)
- High volume (Volume > Threshold)
- *Outcome:* *Short Trap* signal (▼) appears.
### *2️⃣ Strong Support Level*
- *Scenario:* Price bounces *3 times* from the same level.
- *Indicator Action:*
- Labels the level with test count (3/5 = 3 tests out of max 5).
- Turns *red* if broken (Break Count > 0).
Deep Dive: How This Indicator Works*
This indicator combines *four professional trading concepts* into one powerful tool:
1. *Classic Pivot Point Theory*
- Identifies swing highs/lows where price previously reversed
- Unlike basic pivot indicators, ours uses *confirmed pivots only* (filtered by ATR)
2. *Volume-Weighted Validation*
- Requires unusual trading volume to confirm levels
- Filters out "phantom" levels with low participation
3. *ATR Volatility Filtering*
- Eliminates insignificant price swings in choppy markets
- Ensures only meaningful levels are plotted
4. *Liquidity Trap Detection*
- Spots institutional stop hunts where markets fake out traders
- Uses wick analysis + volume spikes for high-probability signals
---
Deep Dive: How This Indicator Works*
This indicator combines *four professional trading concepts* into one powerful tool:
1. *Classic Pivot Point Theory*
- Identifies swing highs/lows where price previously reversed
- Unlike basic pivot indicators, ours uses *confirmed pivots only* (filtered by ATR)
2. *Volume-Weighted Validation*
- Requires unusual trading volume to confirm levels
- Filters out "phantom" levels with low participation
3. *ATR Volatility Filtering*
- Eliminates insignificant price swings in choppy markets
- Ensures only meaningful levels are plotted
4. *Liquidity Trap Detection*
- Spots institutional stop hunts where markets fake out traders
- Uses wick analysis + volume spikes for high-probability signals
---
## *📊 Parameter Encyclopedia (Expanded)*
### *1️⃣ Pivot Engine Settings*
#### *Pivot Length (50)*
- *What It Does:*
Determines how many bars to analyze when searching for swing highs/lows.
- *Professional Adjustment Guide:*
| Trading Style | Recommended Value | Why? |
|--------------|------------------|------|
| Scalping | 10-20 | Captures short-term levels |
| Day Trading | 30-50 | Balanced approach |
| Swing Trading| 50-200 | Focuses on major levels |
- *Real Market Example:*
On NASDAQ 5-minute chart:
- Length=20: Identifies levels holding for ~2 hours
- Length=50: Finds levels respected for entire trading day
#### *Test Threshold (5)*
- *Advanced Insight:*
Institutions often test levels 3-5 times before breaking them. This setting mimics the "probe and push" strategy used by smart money.
- *Psychology Behind It:*
Retail traders typically give up after 2-3 tests, while institutions keep testing until stops are run.
---
### *2️⃣ Volatility Filter System*
#### *ATR Multiplier (1.0)*
- *Professional Formula:*
Minimum Valid Swing = ATR(14) × Multiplier
- *Market-Specific Recommendations:*
| Market Type | Optimal Multiplier |
|------------------|--------------------|
| Forex Majors | 0.8-1.2 |
| Crypto (BTC/ETH) | 1.5-2.5 |
| SP500 Stocks | 1.0-1.5 |
- *Why It Matters:*
In EUR/USD (ATR=10 pips):
- Multiplier=1.0 → Requires 10 pip swings
- Multiplier=1.5 → Requires 15 pip swings (fewer but higher quality levels)
---
### *3️⃣ Volume Confirmation System*
#### *Volume Threshold (1.2)*
- *Institutional Benchmark:*
- 1.2x = Moderate institutional interest
- 1.5x+ = Strong smart money activity
- *Volume Spike Case Study:*
*Before Apple Earnings:*
- Normal volume: 2M shares
- Spike threshold (1.2): 2.4M shares
- Actual volume: 3.1M shares → STRONG confirmation
---
### *4️⃣ Liquidity Trap Detection*
#### *Wick Analysis System*
- *Two-Filter Verification:*
1. *Wick Ratio (0.6):*
- Ensures majority of candle shows rejection
- Formula: (UpperWick + LowerWick) / Total Range > 0.6
2. *Min Wick Size (1% ATR):*
- Prevents false signals in flat markets
- Example: ATR=20 pips → Min wick=0.2 pips
- *Trap Identification Flowchart:*
Price Enters Zone →
Spikes Beyond Level →
Shows Long Wick →
Volume > Threshold →
TRAP CONFIRMED
---
## *💡 Master-Level Usage Techniques*
### *Institutional Order Flow Analysis*
1. *Step 1:* Identify pivot levels with ≥3 tests
2. *Step 2:* Watch for volume contraction near levels
3. *Step 3:* Enter when trap signal appears with:
- Wick > 2×ATR
- Volume > 1.5× average
### *Multi-Timeframe Confirmation*
1. *Higher TF:* Find weekly/monthly pivots
2. *Lower TF:* Use this indicator for precise entries
3. *Example:*
- Weekly pivot at $180
- 4H shows liquidity trap → High-probability reversal
---
## *⚠ Critical Mistakes to Avoid*
1. *Using Default Settings Everywhere*
- Crude oil needs higher ATR multiplier than bonds
2. *Ignoring Trap Context*
- Traps work best at:
- All-time highs/lows
- Major psychological numbers (00/50 levels)
3. *Overlooking Cumulative Volume*
- Check if volume is building over multiple tests
IU Smart Flow SystemDESCRIPTION
The IU Smart Flow System is a powerful and dynamic order flow-based strategy designed to capture high-probability trades by analyzing bullish and bearish imbalances, trend direction, and RSI strength. It identifies trading opportunities by aligning order flow conditions with the prevailing trend and momentum, making it suitable for trend-following and momentum-based trading.
This system utilizes a unique combination of:
- Order flow score to gauge market imbalance
- Trend filter using SMA and ATR to confirm market direction
- RSI to ensure entry only during strong momentum
USER INPUTS:
- Imbalance Length: Defines the lookback period for calculating bullish and bearish imbalances. (Default: 10)
- Trend Length: Determines the length of the SMA to evaluate the trend direction. (Default: 50)
- RSI Length: Specifies the RSI period to assess momentum strength. (Default: 14)
LONG CONDITIONS:
Long entries are triggered when:
- Order flow score is positive, indicating bullish imbalance
- Price is above the bullish trend level (SMA + ATR), confirming an uptrend
- RSI is above 50, indicating bullish momentum
- No active short position is currently open
SHORT CONDITIONS:
Short entries are triggered when:
- Order flow score is negative, indicating bearish imbalance
- Price is below the bearish trend level (SMA - ATR), confirming a downtrend
- RSI is below 50, indicating bearish momentum
- No active long position is currently open
WHY IT IS UNIQUE:
- Imbalance-Based Approach: Unlike traditional strategies that rely solely on price action, this system evaluates bullish and bearish imbalances to anticipate order flow direction.
- Adaptive Trend Filter: The combination of SMA and ATR dynamically adjusts to market volatility, providing a reliable trend confirmation mechanism.
- Momentum Validation with RSI: Ensures that entries are taken only in the direction of strong momentum, reducing false signals.
HOW USERS CAN BENEFIT FROM IT:
- Enhanced Trade Accuracy: Aligning order flow, trend, and momentum reduces false signals and improves trade success rates.
- Versatile Application: Suitable for various markets and timeframes, making it adaptable to different trading styles.
- Clear Trade Signals: Provides clear entry labels and alerts, ensuring traders never miss a potential opportunity.
- Visual Clarity: The filled region between bullish and bearish trends highlights trend direction, enhancing decision-making.
Bitcoin Polynomial Regression ModelThis is the main version of the script. Click here for the Oscillator part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines. The Oscillator version can be found here.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
Bitcoin Polynomial Regression OscillatorThis is the oscillator version of the script. Click here for the other part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
VIX Implied MovesKey Features:
Three Timeframe Bands:
Daily: Blue bands showing ±1σ expected move
Weekly: Green bands showing ±1σ expected move
30-Day: Red bands showing ±1σ expected move
Calculation Methodology:
Uses VIX's annualized volatility converted to specific timeframes using square root of time rule
Trading day convention (252 days/year)
Band width = Price × (VIX/100) ÷ √(number of periods)
Visual Features:
Colored semi-transparent backgrounds between bands
Progressive line thickness (thinner for shorter timeframes)
Real-time updates as VIX and ES prices change
Example Calculation (VIX=20, ES=5000):
Daily move = 5000 × (20/100)/√252 ≈ ±63 points
Weekly move = 5000 × (20/100)/√50 ≈ ±141 points
Monthly move = 5000 × (20/100)/√21 ≈ ±218 points
This indicator helps visualize expected price ranges based on current volatility conditions, with wider bands indicating higher market uncertainty. The probabilistic ranges represent 68% confidence levels (1 standard deviation) derived from options pricing.
Coinbase Premium IndexThe Coinbase Premium Index is a measure of the percentage difference between the price of any coin on Coinbase Pro (USD pair) and the price on Binance (USDT trading pair). It helps differentiate between global and US-specific market sentiment
Major benefits:
Choose between USD or USDC for the Coinbase pair — they can behave differently in rare but actionable situations.
Apply it to any coin, not just BTC. Open any USDT-based chart on any exchange, and the script will automatically compare it with Coinbase’s USD or USDC price.
Highlight only active U.S. trading hours, cutting out irrelevant noise.
Display key thresholds that signal buying or selling pressure.
IU Bigger than range strategyDESCRIPTION
IU Bigger Than Range Strategy is designed to capture breakout opportunities by identifying candles that are significantly larger than the previous range. It dynamically calculates the high and low of the last N candles and enters trades when the current candle's range exceeds the previous range. The strategy includes multiple stop-loss methods (Previous High/Low, ATR, Swing High/Low) and automatically manages take-profit and stop-loss levels based on user-defined risk-to-reward ratios. This versatile strategy is optimized for higher timeframes and assets like BTC but can be fine-tuned for different instruments and intervals.
USER INPUTS:
Look back Length: Number of candles to calculate the high-low range. Default is 22.
Risk to Reward: Sets the target reward relative to the stop-loss distance. Default is 3.
Stop Loss Method: Choose between:(Default is "Previous High/Low")
- Previous High/Low
- ATR (Average True Range)
- Swing High/Low
ATR Length: Defines the length for ATR calculation (only applicable when ATR is selected as the stop-loss method) (Default is 14).
ATR Factor: Multiplier applied to the ATR to determine stop-loss distance(Default is 2).
Swing High/Low Length: Specifies the length for identifying swing points (only applicable when Swing High/Low is selected as the stop-loss method).(Default is 2)
LONG CONDITION:
The current candle’s range (absolute difference between open and close) is greater than the previous range.
The closing price is higher than the opening price (bullish candle).
SHORT CONDITIONS:
The current candle’s range exceeds the previous range.
The closing price is lower than the opening price (bearish candle).
LONG EXIT:
Stop-loss:
- Previous Low
- ATR-based trailing stop
- Recent Swing Low
Take-profit:
- Defined by the Risk-to-Reward ratio (default 3x the stop-loss distance).
SHORT EXIT:
Stop-loss:
- Previous High
- ATR-based trailing stop
- Recent Swing High
Take-profit:
- Defined by the Risk-to-Reward ratio (default 3x the stop-loss distance).
ALERTS:
Long Entry Triggered
Short Entry Triggered
WHY IT IS UNIQUE:
This strategy dynamically adapts to different market conditions by identifying candles that exceed the previous range, ensuring that it only enters trades during strong breakout scenarios.
Multiple stop-loss methods provide flexibility for different trading styles and risk profiles.
The visual representation of stop-loss and take-profit levels with color-coded plots improves trade monitoring and decision-making.
HOW USERS CAN BENEFIT FROM IT:
Ideal for breakout traders looking to capitalize on momentum-driven price moves.
Provides flexibility to customize stop-loss methods and fine-tune risk management parameters.
Helps minimize drawdowns with a strong risk-to-reward framework while maximizing profit potential.
ADR Checker - Breakouts📈 ADR Checker – Breakouts
Gain the edge by knowing when a stock has already made its move.
🚀 What It Does:
The ADR Checker - Breakouts is a powerful yet simple visual tool that helps traders instantly assess whether a stock has already exceeded its Average Daily Range (ADR) for the day — a critical piece of information for momentum traders, swing traders, and especially those following breakout, VCP, or CANSLIM strategies.
Using a customizable on-screen table that always stays in view (regardless of zoom or chart scaling), this script shows:
✅ Average ADR% – 20-day average range, calculated in %.
📊 Today’s Move – how much the stock has moved today.
🔥 % of Avg ADR – today's move relative to its historical average, with live color feedback:
🟥 Over 100% (Overextended – danger!)
🟧 70-100% (Caution zone)
🟩 Below 70% (Room to move)
💡 Why It Matters:
One of the most overlooked mistakes by breakout traders is entering a trade after the move has already happened. If a stock has already moved more than its typical daily range, the odds of further continuation sharply decrease, while the risk of pullback or chop increases.
With this tool, you can:
🚫 Avoid chasing extended breakouts
🎯 Time entries before the real move
⚠️ Quickly assess risk/reward potential intraday
🧠 Example Use Case:
Imagine you're watching a classic VCP setup or flat base breakout. The stock breaks out on volume—but when you check this indicator, you see:
Today’s Move: 7.2%
Avg ADR: 5.3%
% of ADR: 135% 🟥
This tells you the stock is already well beyond its average daily range. While it may continue higher, odds now favor a consolidation, shakeout, or pullback. This is your cue to wait for a better entry or pass entirely.
On the flip side, if the breakout just started and the % of ADR is still under 50%, you have confirmation that there’s room to run — giving you more confidence to enter early.
⚙️ Fully Customizable:
Choose position on screen (top/bottom left/right)
Customize text color, background, and size
🔧 Install This Tool and:
✅ Stop chasing extended moves
✅ Add discipline to your entries
✅ Improve your breakout win rate
Perfect for VCP, CANSLIM, and BREAKOUT traders who want a clean, edge-enhancing visual guide.
Dynamic CAGR LineIndicator: Dynamic CAGR Line
Overview
This Pine Script (version 6) creates a custom indicator called "Dynamic CAGR Moving Line," designed to calculate and display the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in percentage terms for a financial instrument, such as a stock or cryptocurrency, based on a user-defined lookback period (default: 5 years). Unlike traditional overlays that plot directly on the price chart, this indicator appears in a separate pane below the chart, providing a clear visual of how the CAGR evolves over time with each new candle.
Purpose
The indicator helps traders and investors analyze the annualized growth rate of an asset’s price over a specified historical period. By plotting the CAGR as a percentage in a separate pane, users can easily track how the growth rate changes as new price data is added, offering insights into long-term performance trends without cluttering the price chart.
How It Works
User Input:
The script begins with an input parameter, lookback_years, allowing users to define the number of years (e.g., 5) to look back for the CAGR calculation. This is a floating-point value with a minimum of 1 and a step of 0.5, adjustable via the indicator’s settings in TradingView.
Timeframe Conversion:
Assuming a daily chart, the script converts the lookback years into a number of bars using bars_per_year = 252 (the average number of trading days in a year). The total lookback period in bars is calculated as lookback_bars = math.round(lookback_years * bars_per_year). For example, 5 years equals approximately 1260 bars.
Price Data:
For each candle, the start_price is fetched from the closing price lookback_bars ago (e.g., the close price from 5 years prior), using close .
The end_price is the current candle’s closing price, accessed via close.
CAGR Calculation:
The total return is computed as (end_price - start_price) / start_price, measuring the percentage change from the start price to the current price.
To avoid division-by-zero errors, a conditional check ensures start_price != 0; if it is, the return defaults to 0.
The CAGR is then calculated using the formula: math.pow(1 + total_return, 1 / lookback_years) - 1, which annualizes the total return over the lookback period.
The result is converted to a percentage by multiplying by 100 (cagr_percent = cagr * 100).
Plotting:
The CAGR percentage is plotted as a blue line in a separate pane using plot(). The line only appears after enough data exists (bar_index >= lookback_bars), otherwise it plots na (not available).
A label is added for each candle, displaying the current CAGR percentage (e.g., "CAGR: 5.23%") near the plotted value, styled with a blue background and white text.
Usage
Chart Setup: Apply the indicator to a daily chart with sufficient historical data (e.g., more than 5 years for the default setting). It’s designed for daily timeframes but can be adapted for others by adjusting bars_per_year (e.g., 52 for weekly).
Interpretation: A positive CAGR (e.g., 5%) indicates annualized growth, while a negative value (e.g., -2%) shows an annualized decline. A flat line at 0% suggests no net change over the lookback period.
Customization: Adjust lookback_years in the settings to analyze different periods (e.g., 3 or 10 years).
Notes
Ensure your chart has enough data to cover the lookback period, or the line won’t appear until sufficient bars are available.
For debugging, you can temporarily plot start_price and end_price on the main chart to verify the calculation inputs.
Fibonacci Forecast IndicatorThis indicator projects potential price movements into the future based on user-defined Fibonacci-period moving averages. By default, it calculates Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) for the 3, 5, 8, 13, and 21 bars (though you can customize these values). For each SMA, it measures the distance between the current closing price and that SMA, then extends the price forward by the same distance.
Key Features
1. Fibonacci MAs:
- Uses Fibonacci numbers (3, 5, 8, 13, 21) for SMA calculations by default.
- Fully customizable periods to fit different trading styles.
2. Forecast Projection:
- If the current price is above a given SMA, the forecast line extends higher (bullish bias).
- If the current price is below the SMA, the forecast line extends lower (bearish bias).
- Forecast lines are anchored at the current bar and project forward according to the same Fibonacci intervals.
3. Clean Visualization:
- Draws a series of connected line segments from the current bar’s close to each forecast point.
- This approach offers a clear, at-a-glance visual of potential future price paths.
How to Use
1. Add to Chart:
- Simply apply the indicator to any chart and timeframe.
- Adjust the Fibonacci periods and styling under the indicator settings.
2. Interpretation:
- Each forecast line shows where price could potentially head if the current momentum (distance from the SMA) continues.
- When multiple lines are consistently above (or below) the current price, it may reinforce a bullish (or bearish) outlook.
3. Customization:
- You can modify the number of forecast lines, their color, and line width in the inputs.
- Change or add your own Fibonacci periods to experiment with different intervals.
Notes and Best Practices
- Confirmation Tool: This indicator is best used alongside other forms of technical or fundamental analysis. It provides a “what-if” scenario based on current momentum, not a guaranteed prediction.
- Not Financial Advice: Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Always practice proper risk management and consider multiple indicators or market factors before making trading decisions.
Give it a try, and see if these Fibonacci-based projections help visualize where price may be headed in your trading strategy!
TR FVG Finder 1.0TR FVG Finder 1.0 - Identify High-Probability Trading Zones
Unlock the power of Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) with this advanced TradingView indicator! Designed for traders seeking high-probability setups, the Fair Value Gap Detector identifies key price imbalances on your chart, helping you spot potential reversal and continuation zones with precision.
Key Features:
Accurate FVG Detection: Automatically detects bullish and bearish Fair Value Gaps based on a proven 3-candle pattern, highlighting areas where price is likely to return.
Customizable Display: Shows the most recent 3 FVGs by default (combined bullish and bearish), with an option to adjust the number of FVGs displayed.
Visual Clarity: Draws semi-transparent boxes (green for bullish FVGs, red for bearish FVGs) that extend 15 candles to the right, making it easy to track key levels.
Versatile for All Markets: Works on any timeframe and instrument—perfect for forex, stocks, crypto, and commodities like XAU/USD (gold).
User-Friendly: Simple to use with customizable settings, ideal for both beginner and experienced traders.
How It Works:
The indicator identifies FVGs by analyzing a 3-candle pattern:
- Bullish FVG: When the high of the candle two bars back is below the low of the current candle.
- Bearish FVG: When the low of the candle two bars back is above the high of the current candle. These gaps often act as magnets for price, making them powerful zones for trading strategies like breakouts, pullbacks, or reversals.
Why Use This Indicator?
- Enhance your technical analysis with a proven concept used by institutional traders.
- Spot high-probability trading opportunities with clear visual cues.
- Save time by automating FVG detection—no manual drawing required.
Best Practices:
- Use on lower timeframes (e.g., 15-minute or 1-hour) for more frequent FVGs, especially in volatile markets like forex or crypto.
- Combine with other indicators (e.g., support/resistance, volume) for confirmation.
- Ideal for strategies like ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts, Smart Money trading, and price action analysis.
Regards,
Trader Riaz
Moon+Lunar Cycle Vertical Delineation & Projection
Automatically highlights the exact candle in which Moonphase shifts occur.
Optionally including shifts within the Microphases of the total Lunar Cycle.
This allow traders to pre-emptively identify time-based points of volatility,
focusing on mean-reversion; further simplified via the use of projections.
Projections are calculated via candle count, values displayed in "Debug";
these are useful in understanding the function & underlying mechanics.
Fibonacci RangeFibonacci Range 50 Indicator
The Fibonacci Range 50 indicator is designed to help traders identify potential price reversal zones and breakout levels by utilizing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level as a key reference point. This indicator is particularly useful for traders who rely on technical analysis and price action to make informed trading decisions.
How It Works:
Identifies the Range – The indicator automatically detects a significant price range, typically based on the highest and lowest points of a given session (e.g., Asian session, previous day’s range, or a custom timeframe).
Plots Fibonacci Levels – The key 50% Fibonacci retracement level is calculated within this range, acting as a dynamic midpoint that often serves as a pivot zone for price movements.
Breakout & Reversal Signals –
If the price rejects the 50% level, it may indicate a trend continuation or range-bound movement.
If the price breaks above or below the range with momentum, it may signal a potential breakout trade opportunity.
Key Features:
✅ Automatic Fibonacci Level Calculation – No manual drawing required.
✅ Customizable Time Ranges – Allows traders to adjust the indicator based on their preferred trading session.
✅ Works Across Different Markets – Effective for Forex, Crypto, and Stock trading.
✅ Breakout & Reversal Strategy Integration – Can be used in conjunction with other indicators such as Moving Averages, RSI, and MACD.
Ideal For:
Intraday traders looking for high-probability setups.
Swing traders identifying potential turning points.
Traders using breakout strategies based on price action.
This indicator provides traders with clear and actionable insights to improve their trade entries, stop-loss placements, and profit targets. 🚀
Multi-Timeframe Stochastic RSI ArrowsMulti-Timeframe Stochastic RSI Arrows Indicator by The Venetian
Dear Moderators before you torch me alive theres nothing groundbreaking just very handy indicator for some users.
This indicator provides traders with a jet fighter-style heads-up display for market momentum across multiple timeframes. By displaying Stochastic RSI directional arrows for 12 different timeframes simultaneously, it offers a comprehensive view of market conditions without requiring multiple chart windows.
How It Works
The indicator calculates the Stochastic RSI for each of 12 common timeframes (1m to 3M) and represents directional movements with intuitive arrows:
- ▲ Green up arrow = Rising momentum
- ▼ Red down arrow = Falling momentum
- ◄► Yellow horizontal arrows = Flat/sideways momentum
- ► Gray right arrow = Just peaked (crossed above overbought)
- ◄ Gray left arrow = Just bottomed (crossed below oversold)
Each timeframe's status appears with its label (e.g., "1m ▲") in a clean, vertically-stacked display using ATR-based spacing to maintain consistent visual appearance regardless of price scale.
Key Features
- ATR-Based Spacing : Uses Average True Range to maintain consistent distances between labels even as chart scale changes
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Easily spot divergences and confluences across timeframes (1m, 3m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 1h, 2h, 4h, 1D, 1W, 1M, 3M)
- Sensitivity Control: Adjust flat detection sensitivity to filter out noise
- Customisable Appearance: Modify arrow size, vertical spacing, and show/hide timeframe labels
- Overbought/Oversold Detection: Highlights when momentum has peaked or bottomed at extreme levels
- Trading Applications
- Trend Alignment: Quickly identify when multiple timeframes align in the same direction
- Divergence Detection: Spot when shorter timeframes begin to shift against longer ones
- Entry/Exit Timing: Use crossovers of significant timeframes as potential signals
- Market Context: Maintain awareness of the bigger picture while trading shorter timeframes
This indicator doesn't break new ground technically but excels in presenting complex multi-timeframe information in a clean, actionable format — much like a pilot's heads-up display provides critical information at a glance. The ATR-based positioning ensures consistent visibility across different instruments and market conditions.
Great effort has been made for this script to adhere to TradingView's Pine Script house rules and focuses on trader usability rather than introducing novel technical concepts.
Hurst-Based Trend Persistence w/Poisson Prediction
---
# **Hurst-Based Trend Persistence w/ Poisson Prediction**
## **Introduction**
The **Hurst-Based Trend Persistence with Poisson Prediction** is a **statistically-driven trend-following oscillator** that provides traders with **a structured approach to identifying trend strength, persistence, and potential reversals**.
This indicator combines:
- **Hurst Exponent Analysis** (to measure how persistent or mean-reverting price action is).
- **Color-Coded Trend Detection** (to highlight bullish and bearish conditions).
- **Poisson-Based Trend Reversal Probability Projection** (to anticipate when a trend is likely to end based on statistical models).
By integrating **fractal market theory (Hurst exponent)** with **Poisson probability distributions**, this indicator gives traders a **probability-weighted view of trend duration** while dynamically adapting to market volatility.
---
## **Simplified Explanation (How to Read the Indicator at a Glance)**
1. **If the oscillator line is going up → The trend is strong.**
2. **If the oscillator line is going down → The trend is weakening.**
3. **If the color shifts from red to green (or vice versa), a trend shift has occurred.**
- **Strong trends can change color without weakening** (meaning a bullish or bearish move can remain powerful even as the trend shifts).
4. **A weakening trend does NOT necessarily mean a reversal is coming.**
- The trend may slow down but continue in the same direction.
5. **A strong trend does NOT guarantee it will last.**
- Even a powerful move can **suddenly reverse**, which is why the **Poisson-based background shading** helps anticipate probabilities of change.
---
## **How to Use the Indicator**
### **1. Understanding the Rolling Hurst-Based Trend Oscillator (Main Line)**
The **oscillator line** is based on the **Hurst exponent (H)**, which quantifies whether price movements are:
- **Trending** (values above 0 → momentum-driven, persistent trends).
- **Mean-reverting** (values below 0 → price action is choppy, likely to revert to the mean).
- **Neutral (Random Walk)** (values around 0 → price behaves like a purely stochastic process).
#### **Interpreting the Oscillator:**
- **H > 0.5 → Persistent Trends:**
- Price moves tend to sustain in one direction for longer periods.
- Example: Strong uptrends in bull markets.
- **H < 0.5 → Mean-Reverting Behavior:**
- Price has a tendency to revert back to its mean.
- Example: Sideways markets or fading momentum.
- **H ≈ 0.5 → Random Walk:**
- No clear trend; price is unpredictable.
A **gray dashed horizontal line at 0** serves as a **baseline**, helping traders quickly assess whether the market is **favoring trends or mean reversion**.
---
### **2. Color-Coded Trend Signal (Visual Confirmation of Trend Shifts)**
The oscillator **changes color** based on **price slope** over the lookback period:
- **🟢 Green → Uptrend (Price Increasing)**
- Price is rising relative to the selected lookback period.
- Suggests sustained bullish pressure.
- **🔴 Red → Downtrend (Price Decreasing)**
- Price is falling relative to the selected lookback period.
- Suggests sustained bearish pressure.
#### **How to Use This in Trading**
✔ **Stay in trends until a color change occurs.**
✔ **Use color changes as confirmation for trend reversals.**
✔ **Avoid counter-trend trades when the oscillator remains strongly colored.**
---
### **3. Poisson-Based Trend Reversal Projection (Anticipating Future Shifts)**
The **shaded orange background** represents a **Poisson-based probability estimation** of when the trend is likely to reverse.
- **Darker Orange = Higher Probability of Trend Reversal**
- **Lighter Orange / No Shade = Low Probability of Immediate Reversal**
💡 **The idea behind this model:**
✔ Trends **don’t last forever**, and their duration follows **statistical patterns**.
✔ By calculating the **average historical trend duration**, the indicator predicts **how likely a trend shift is at any given time**.
✔ The **Poisson probability function** is applied to determine the **expected likelihood of a reversal as time progresses**.
---
## **Mathematical Foundations of the Indicator**
This indicator is based on **two primary statistical models**:
### **1. Hurst Exponent & Trend Persistence (Fractal Market Theory)**
- The **Hurst exponent (H)** measures **autocorrelation** in price movements.
- If past trends **persist**, H will be **above 0.5** (meaning trend-following strategies are favorable).
- If past trends tend to **mean-revert**, H will be **below 0.5** (meaning reversal strategies are more effective).
- The **Rolling Hurst Oscillator** calculates this exponent over a moving window to track real-time trend conditions.
#### **Formula Breakdown (Simplified for Traders)**
The Hurst exponent (H) is derived using the **Rescaled Range (R/S) Analysis**:
\
Where:
- **R** = **Range** (difference between max cumulative deviation and min cumulative deviation).
- **S** = **Standard deviation** of price fluctuations.
- **Lookback** = The number of periods analyzed.
---
### **2. Poisson-Based Trend Reversal Probability (Stochastic Process Modeling)**
The **Poisson process** is a **probabilistic model used for estimating time-based events**, applied here to **predict trend reversals based on past trend durations**.
#### **How It Works**
- The indicator **tracks trend durations** (the time between color changes).
- A **Poisson rate parameter (λ)** is computed as:
\
- The **probability of a reversal at any given time (t)** is estimated using:
\
- **As t increases (trend continues), the probability of reversal rises**.
- The indicator **shades the background based on this probability**, visually displaying the likelihood of a **trend shift**.
---
## **Dynamic Adaptation to Market Conditions**
✔ **Volatility-Adjusted Trend Shifts:**
- A **custom volatility calculation** dynamically adjusts the **minimum trend duration** required before a trend shift is recognized.
- **Higher volatility → Requires longer confirmation before switching trend color.**
- **Lower volatility → Allows faster trend shifts.**
✔ **Adaptive Poisson Weighting:**
- **Recent trends are weighted more heavily** using an exponential decay function:
- **Decay Factor (0.618 by default)** prioritizes **recent intervals** while still considering historical trends.
- This ensures the model adapts to changing market conditions.
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## **Key Takeaways for Traders**
✅ **Identify Persistent Trends vs. Mean Reversion:**
- Use the oscillator line to determine whether the market favors **trend-following or counter-trend strategies**.
✅ **Visual Trend Confirmation via Color Coding:**
- **Green = Uptrend**, **Red = Downtrend**.
- Trend changes help confirm **entry and exit points**.
✅ **Anticipate Trend Reversals Using Probability Models:**
- The **Poisson projection** provides a **statistical edge** in **timing exits before trends reverse**.
✅ **Adapt to Market Volatility Automatically:**
- Dynamic **volatility scaling** ensures the indicator remains effective in **both high and low volatility environments**.
Happy trading and enjoy!
day of Month | xilixMonthly Marker (1D Only)
The Monthly Marker indicator automatically highlights a specific day of the month on a daily (1D) chart by drawing a vertical line. Users can select their desired day of the month and customize the line color.
Features:
✅ Marks the chosen day of each month with a vertical line.
✅ Customizable line color (set in the indicator settings).
✅ Helps traders quickly identify key monthly dates.
Note: This indicator will not work on lower timeframes (e.g., 4H, 1H) and will show an error if applied outside the 1D timeframe.
Best Use Cases: Monthly trend tracking, economic event alignment, and custom date-based analysis. 🚀
Live SessionsLive sessions plots the highs and lows of the previous for sessions.
It also marks when these are broken by price.
Default Time Frames are:
London Session = "0000-0600", "UTC-4"
New York Session = "0830-1230", "UTC-4"
Asia Session = "1800-0000", "UTC-4"
New York Close Session = "1330-1630", "UTC-4"
Useful for highlighting when price has gone through a previous session high or low and quickly seeing where liquidity still lies.
Scalping Entry/Exit Indicator by DiGetImagine having a tool that not only spots high-probability entry signals but also visually marks them on your chart with color-coded cues and automated alerts. The Scalping Entry/Exit Indicator by DiGet does exactly that—by fusing a range of classic candlestick patterns (such as Bullish Hammers, Engulfing patterns, and Morning/Evening Stars) with dynamic risk management levels, this script empowers you to make swift and informed trading decisions. Whether you're an active trader or an algorithm enthusiast, this indicator offers both precision and clarity in identifying scalp opportunities, making your chart analysis more efficient and visually engaging.
Indicator Breakdown
Input Parameters:
The indicator accepts a customizable risk-reward ratio, an ATR period for volatility measurement, and a lookback period to scan for valid candlestick patterns.
ATR & Candle Calculations:
It computes the Average True Range (ATR) to dynamically set stop-loss and take-profit levels. Additionally, it determines the body and wick sizes of each candlestick to help identify key reversal patterns.
Pattern Detection:
Multiple bullish patterns (Hammer, Engulfing, Morning Star) and bearish patterns (Shooting Star, Engulfing, Evening Star) are detected. There’s also a simplified version of the Head & Shoulders pattern, offering further validation for reversal signals.
Signal Generation & Trade Levels:
The script consolidates the pattern signals into combined “buy” and “sell” triggers. It then calculates the respective stop-loss (SL) and take-profit (TP) levels based on the current price and ATR, providing a robust risk management framework.
Visual Aids & Alerts:
To enhance usability, the indicator changes the chart’s background color to green for buy signals and red for sell signals. It also draws labels, lines (representing SL and TP), and markers directly on the chart, along with alert conditions to notify traders of actionable signals.
This indicator is an excellent addition to your TradingView toolkit—ideal for scalpers and short-term traders seeking clarity, precision, and automated signal generation on their charts.
Enjoy trading with confidence and precision!
ALMA 20, 50, 200The ALMA (Arnaud Legoux Moving Average) crossover strategy uses two ALMA lines (fast and slow) to generate buy/sell signals, aiming to reduce lag and noise compared to traditional moving averages, and is often combined with volume filters for improved accuracy.
Here's a more detailed explanation:
What it is:
The ALMA indicator is a moving average (MA) variant designed to reduce lag and improve responsiveness while maintaining a smooth curve, using a Gaussian filter.
How it works:
ALMA calculates two moving averages, one from left to right and one from right to left, and then processes the output through a customizable formula for increased smoothness or responsiveness.
Crossover Strategy:
A common ALMA strategy involves using two ALMA lines with different lengths (fast and slow). A buy signal is generated when the fast ALMA crosses above the slow ALMA, and a sell signal when the fast ALMA crosses below the slow ALMA.
Benefits:
ALMA offers advantages like reduced lag, smoothness, and filtering capabilities, making it useful for identifying trends and potential reversals.
Potential Risks:
Like any indicator, ALMA can produce false signals, so it's crucial to combine it with other indicators and analyze price action.
Parameters:
ALMA has parameters like "Length" (number of periods), "Sigma" (filter's range, affecting responsiveness), and "Offset" (for accessing data of different candles).
Other uses:
ALMA can also be used for trend identification, dynamic support and resistance, and combined with other indicators to enhance trading strategies.
