thuyliemforever EMA Scalper - Buy/Sellthuyliemforever EMA Scalper - Buy/Sell
Indicator that help you make decision buy or sell.
Forecasting
[blackcat] L3 Candle Skew 3821 TraderLevel 3
Background
By modeling skew to produce long and short entry points.
Function
The concept of skew comes from physics and statistics, and is used in market technical analysis to reflect the expectation of future stock price distribution. Because the return distribution of stocks in the trend market has skew (Skew), it is reasonable to judge the trend continuity according to the historical and current skew. It is precisely because the stock price rises that there is a skew. The greater the strength of the rise, the greater the angle of inclination and the greater the skew. The degree of this upward or downward slope in the statistical distribution of stock prices is defined as skew. Through the size of skew, we can know the direction, inertia and extent of the stock's rise or fall, and find stocks with a high probability of quick profit. The technical indicator introduced today is a simplified but effective stock price skew model used to generate buying and selling points.
The principle of this technical indicator is based on the success rate test results of different moving averages corresponding to different skews as follows:
10 trading cycles profit 5% success rate (%)
5 period moving average 10 period moving average 20 period moving average 30 period moving average 60 period moving average
skew>=0 51.36 52.26 52.65 52.55 52.08
skew>=0.5 55.44 58.06 60.56 62.37 65.66
skew>=1 59.72 63.06 67.07 69.78 70.62
skew>=1.5 63.01 67.08 71.61 72.9 70.61
skew>=2 65.53 70.22 74.18 73.76 70.12
skew>=2.5 67.89 72.93 75.32 73.66 68.92
skew>=3 70.07 75.32 75.69 72.54 67.45
skew>=3.5 71.85 77.05 75.32 73.63 63.82
skew>=4 73.6 78.06 74.19 68.96 59.91
skew>=4.5 76.04 78.56 72.85 69.55 49.24
skew>=5 77.44 78.88 71.58 67.28 51.69
skew>=5.5 78.97 78.39 70.33 64.31 49.7
skew>=6 79.68 78.07 68.82 61.65 53.57
Table 1
As can be seen from the above table, with the increase of the 5-period and 10-period moving average skew values, the success rate is increasing, but after the 20- and 30-period moving average skew values increase to an upper bound, it shows a downward trend. When the skew of the 20-period and 30-period moving averages is greater than 0.5, the 10-period profit of 5% is above 60%, and when it is greater than 1.5, the success rate can reach above 70%. The larger the 5-period moving average skew, the higher the success rate, but often because the short-term skew is too large, the stock price has risen rapidly to a high level, and chasing up is risky, which is not suitable for the investment habits of most people, so prudent investors may like to do swings. Investors may wish to pay more attention to the skew of the 20-period and 30-period moving averages. Based on the above analysis, as a short-term trading enthusiast, I need to choose the 5-period and 10-period moving average skew, and consider the medium-term trend as a compromise, and I also need to consider the 20-period moving average skew. Finally, according to the principle of personal preference, I chose 3 groups of periods based on Fibonacci magic numbers: 3 periods, 8 periods, 21 periods, and skews that take into account both short-term and mid-line trends. So, I named this indicator number 3821 as a distinction.
002084 1D from TradingView
BTCUSDT 1H from TradingView
Tesla 1D from TradingView
Candlestick Pattern Criteria and Analysis Indicator█ OVERVIEW
Define, then locate the presence of a candle that fits a specific criteria. Run a basic calculation on what happens after such a candle occurs.
Here, I’m not giving you an edge, but I’m giving you a clear way to find one.
IMPORTANT NOTE: PLEASE READ:
THE INDICATOR WILL ALWAYS INITIALLY LOAD WITH A RUNTIME ERROR. WHEN INITIALLY LOADED THERE NO CRITERIA SELECTED.
If you do not select a criteria or run a search for a criteria that doesn’t exist, you will get a runtime error. If you want to force the chart to load anyway, enable the debug panel at the bottom of the settings menu.
Who this is for:
- People who want to engage in TradingView for tedious and challenging data analysis related to candlestick measurement and occurrence rate and signal bar relationships with subsequent bars. People who don’t know but want to figure out what a strong bullish bar or a strong bearish bar is.
Who this is not for:
- People who want to be told by an indicator what is good or bad or buy or sell. Also, not for people that don’t have any clear idea on what they think is a strong bullish bar or a strong bearish bar and aren’t willing to put in the work.
Recommendation: Use on the candle resolution that accurately reflects your typical holding period. If you typically hold a trade for 3 weeks, use 3W candles. If you hold a trade for 3 minutes, use 3m candles.
Tldr; Read the tool tips and everything above this line. Let me know any issues that arise or questions you have.
█ CONCEPTS
Many trading styles indicate that a certain candle construct implies a bearish or bullish future for price. That said, it is also common to add to that idea that the context matters. Of course, this is how you end up with all manner of candlestick patterns accounting for thousands of pages of literature. No matter the context though, we can distill a discretionary trader's decision to take a trade based on one very basic premise: “A trader decides to take a trade on the basis of the rightmost candle's construction and what he/she believes that candle construct implies about the future price.” This indicator vets that trader’s theory in the most basic way possible. It finds the instances of any candle construction and takes a look at what happens on the next bar. This current bar is our “Signal Bar.”
█ GUIDE
I said that we vet the theory in the most basic way possible. But, in truth, this indicator is very complex as a result of there being thousands of ways to define a ‘strong’ candle. And you get to define things on a very granular level with this indicator.
Features:
1. Candle Highlighting
When the user’s criteria is met, the candle is highlighted on the chart.
The following candle is highlighted based on whether it breaks out, breaks down, or is an inside bar.
2. User-Defined Criteria
Criteria that you define include:
Candle Type: Bull bars, Bear bars, or both
Candle Attributes
Average Size based on Standard Deviation or Average of all potential bars in price history
Search within a specific price range
Search within a specific time range
Clarify time range using defined sessions and with or without weekends
3. Strike Lines on Candle
Often you want to know how price reacts when it gets back to a certain candle. Also it might be true that candle types cluster in a price region. This can be identified visually by adding lines that extend right on candles that fit the criteria.
4. User-Defined Context
Labeled “Alternative Criteria,” this facet of the script allows the user to take the context provided from another indicator and import it into the indicator to use as a overriding criteria. To account for the fact that the external indicator must be imported as a float value, true (criteria of external indicator is met) must be imported as 1 and false (criteria of external indicator is not met) as 0. Basically a binary Boolean. This can be used to create context, such as in the case of a traditional fractal, or can be used to pair with other signals.
If you know how to code in Pinescript, you can save a copy and simply add your own code to the section indicated in the code and set your bull and bear variables accordingly and the code should compile just fine with no further editing needed.
Included with the script to maximize out-of-the-box functionality, there is preloaded as alternative criteria a code snippet. The criteria is met on the bull side when the current candle close breaks out above the prior candle high. The bear criteria is met when the close breaks below the prior candle. When Alternate Criteria is run by itself, this is the only criteria set and bars are highlighted when it is true. You can qualify these candles by adding additional attributes that you think would fit well.
Using Alternative Criteria, you are essentially setting a filter for the rest of the criteria.
5. Extensive Read Out in the Data Window (right side bar pop out window).
As you can see in the thumbnail, there is pasted a copy of the Data Window Dialogue. I am doubtful I can get the thumbnail to load up perfectly aligned. Its hard to get all these data points in here. It may be better suited for a table at this point. Let me know what you think.
The primary, but not exclusive, purpose of what is in the Data Window is to talk about how often your criteria happens and what happens on the next bar. There are a lot of pieces to this.
Red = Values pertaining to the size of the current bar only
Blue = Values pertaining or related to the total number of signals
Green = Values pertaining to the signal bars themselves, including their measurements
Purple = Values pertaining to bullish bars that happen after the signal bar
Fuchsia = Values pertaining to bearish bars that happen after the signal bar
Lime = Last four rows which are your percentage occurrence vs total signals percentages
The best way I can explain how to understand parts you don’t understand otherwise in the data window is search the title of the row in the code using ‘ctrl+f’ and look at it and see if it makes more sense.
█ [b}Available Candle Attributes
Candle attributes can be used in any combination. They include:
[*}Bodies
[*}High/Low Range
[*}Upper Wick
[*}Lower Wick
[*}Average Size
[*}Alternative Criteria
Criteria will evaluate each attribute independently. If none is set for a particular attribute it is bypassed.
Criteria Quantity can be in Ticks, Points, or Percentage. For percentage keep in mind if using anything involving the candle range will not work well with percentage.
Criteria Operators are “Greater Than,” “Less Than,” and “Threshold.” Threshold means within a range of two numbers.
█ Problems with this methodology and opportunities for future development:
#1 This kind of work is hard.
If you know what you’re doing you might be able to find success changing out the inputs for loops and logging results in arrays or matrices, but to manually go through and test various criteria is a lot of work. However, it is rewarding. At the time of publication in early Oct 2022, you will quickly find that you get MUCH more follow through on bear bars than bull bars. That should be obvious because we’re in the middle of a bear market, but you can still work with the parameters and contextual inputs to determine what maximizes your probability. I’ve found configurations that yield 70% probability across the full series of bars. That’s an edge. That means that 70% of the time, when this criteria is met, the next bar puts you in profit.
#2 The script is VERY heavy.
Takes an eternity to load. But, give it a break, it’s doing a heck of a lot! There is 10 unique arrays in here and a loop that is a bit heavy but gives us the debug window.
#3 If you don’t have a clear idea its hard to know where to start.
There are a lot of levers to pull on in this script. Knowing which ones are useful and meaningful is very challenging. Combine that with long load times… its not great.
#4 Your brain is the only thing that can optimize your results because the criteria come from your mind.
Machine learning would be much more useful here, but for now, you are the machine. Learn.
#5 You can’t save your settings.
So, when you find a good combo, you’ll have to write it down elsewhere for future reference. It would be nice if we could save templates on custom indicators like we can on some of the built in drawing tools, but I’ve had no success in that. So, I recommend screenshotting your settings and saving them in Notion.so or some other solid record keeping database. Then you can go back and retrieve those settings.
#6 no way to export these results into conditions that can be copy/pasted into another script.
Copy/Paste of labels or tables would be the best feature ever at this point. Because you could take the criteria and put it in a label, copy it and drop it into another strategy script or something. But… men can dream.
█ Opportunities to PineCoders Learn:
1. In this script I’m importing libraries, showing some of my libraries functionality. Hopefully that gives you some ideas on how to use them too.
The price displacement library (which I love!)
Creative and conventional ways of using debug()
how to display arrays and matrices on charts
I didn’t call in the library that holds the backtesting function. But, also demonstrating, you can always pull the library up and just copy/paste the function out of there and into your script. That’s fine to do a lot of the time.
2. I am using REALLY complicated logic in this script (at least for me). I included extensive descriptions of this ? : logic in the text of the script. I also did my best to bracket () my logic groups to demonstrate how they fit together, both for you and my future self.
3. The breakout, built-in, “alternative criteria” is actually a small bit of genius built in there if you want to take the time to understand that block of code and think about some of the larger implications of the method deployed.
As always, a big thank you to TradingView and the Pinescript community, the Pinescript pros who have mentored me, and all of you who I am privileged to help in their Pinescripting journey.
"Those who stay will become champions" - Bo Schembechler
SMA 10/20/50 by Bull Bear Investing BabyThis script basically is a combination of 3 different simple moving averages line to determine the trend of the assets
The colour indicating which moving averages are as per following:
1) Green- 10MA
2) Red- 20MA
3) Blue- 50MA
When the moving averages are aligned as per following, the trend is indicating towards an uptrend:
---> 10ma > 20ma > 50ma
Likewise when the moving averages are aligned as per following, the trend is indicating towards a downtrend:
---> 10ma < 20ma < 50ma
Calculate target by Range [Wyckoff,PnF]First of all, I would like to thank the author @LonesomeTheBlue.
This indicator developed on the source code "Point and Figure (PnF)" by author @LonesomeTheBlue.
This indicator calculate the range (Cause) of Phase accumulation or distribution to calculate the taget (Effect) based on the Wyckoff Method.
Formula for calculate move value target : Col * BoxSize * Reversal
Col -> Number of Column (PnF) in the range (Cause)
BoxSize -> Value in one Box (PnF)
Reversal -> Reversal (PnF)
Faytterro Estimator StrategyWhat is "Faytterro Estimator Strategy"?
"Faytterro Estimator Strategy" is strategy of faytterro estimator. if you want to know more about faytterro estimator:
What it does?
It trades according to the signals given by faytterro estimator and some additional restrictions.
How it does it?
Using the faytterro estimator and the following variables, it gives buy and sell signals in different sizes at ideal points.
How to use it?
The "source" part is used to change the source of faytterro estimator.
The "length" is the length of the fayterro estimator.
"Minimum entry-close gap" is the minimum distance between two transactions opened in opposite directions. For example, if you opened long at 20 500 and "Minimum entry-close gap" is 400, you will not receive a sell signal before the price goes above 20900.
If "minimum entry-entry gap" is the minimum difference between two transactions opened in the same direction. For example, if you open long at 20500 level and the "minimum entry-entry gap" is 400, you will not receive a "buy" signal before the price goes below the 20100 level.
"strong entry size" determines the size of strong signals. The size of ordinary signals is always 1.
note: default values for btc/usdt 1 hour timeframe.
Fourier Spectrometer of Price w/ Extrapolation Forecast [Loxx]Fourier Spectrometer of Price w/ Extrapolation Forecast is a forecasting indicator that forecasts the sinusoidal frequency of input price. This method uses Linear Regression with a Fast Fourier Transform function for the forecast and is different from previous forecasting methods I've posted. Dotted lines are the forecast frequencies. You can change the UI colors and line widths. This comes with 8 frequencies out of the box. Instead of drawing sinusoidal manually on your charts, you can use this instead. This will render better results than eyeballing the Sine Wave that folks use for trading. this is the real math that automates that process.
Each signal line can be shown as a linear superposition of periodic (sinusoidal) components with different periods (frequencies) and amplitudes. Roughly, the indicator shows those components. It strongly depends on the probing window and changes (recalculates) after each tick; e.g., you can see the set of frequencies showing whether the signal is fast or slow-changing, etc. Sometimes only a small number of leading / strongest components (e.g., 3) can extrapolate the signal quite well.
Related Indicators
Fourier Extrapolator of 'Caterpillar' SSA of Price
Real-Fast Fourier Transform of Price w/ Linear Regression
Fourier Extrapolator of Price w/ Projection Forecast
Itakura-Saito Autoregressive Extrapolation of Price
Helme-Nikias Weighted Burg AR-SE Extra. of Price
***The period parameter doesn't correspond to how many bars back the drawing begins. Lines re rendered according to skipping mechanism due to TradingView limitations.
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█ OVERVIEW
People often look an indicator in their technical analysis to enter a position. We may also need to look at the signals of one or more indicators to verify the signals given by some indicators. In this context, I developed a strategy to test whether it really works by choosing some of the indicators that capture trend changes with the same characteristics. Also, since the subject is to catch the trend change, I thought it would be right to include an indicator using the heikin ashi logic. By averaging and smoothing the market noise, Heiken Ashi makes it easier to detect the direction of the trend helps to see possible reversal points on the chart. However, it should be noted that Heiken Ashi is a lagging indicator.
I picked 5 different indicators (but their purpose are similar) and combined them to produce buy and sell signals based on your choice(not repaint). First of all let's get some information about our indicators. So you will understand me why i picked these indicators and what is the meaning of their signals.
1 — Coral Trend Indicator by LazyBear
Coral Trend Indicator is a linear combination of moving averages, all obtained by a triple or higher order exponential smoothing. The indicator comes with a trend indication which is based on the normalized slope of the plot. the usage of this indicator is simple. When the color of the line is green that means the market is in uptrend. But when the color is red that means the market is in downtrend.
As you see the original indicator it is simple to find is it in uptrend or downtrend.
So i added a code to find when the color of the line change. When it turns green to red my script giving sell signals, when it turns red to green it gives buy signals.
I hide the candles to show you more clearly what is happening when you choose only Coral Strategy. But sometimes it is not enough only using itself. Even if green dots turn to red it continues in uptrend. So we need a to look another indicator to approve our signal.
2 — SSL channel by ErwinBeckers
Known as the SSL , the Semaphore Signal Level channel is an indicator that combines moving averages to provide you with a clear visual signal of price movement dynamics. In short, it's designed to show you when a price trend is forming. This indicator creates a band by calculating the high and low values according to the determined period. Simply if you decide 10 as period, it calculates a 10-period moving average on the latest 10 highs. Calculate a 10-period moving average on the latest 10 lows. If the price falls below the low band, the downtrend begins, if the price closes above the high band, the uptrend begins. Lets look the original form of indicator and learn how it using.
If the red line is below and the green band is above, it means that we are in uptrend, and if it is on the opposite side, it means that we are in downtrend. Therefore, it would be logical to enter a position where the trend has changed. So i added a code to find when the crossover has occured.
As you see in my strategy, it gives you signals when the trend has changed. But sometimes it is not enough only using this indicator itself. So lets look 2 indicator together in one chart.
Look circle SSL is saying it is in downtrend but Coral is saying it has entered in uptrend. if we just look to coral signal it can misleads us. So it can be better to look another indicator for validating our signals.
3 — Heikin Ashi RSI Oscillator by JayRogers
The Heikin-Ashi technique is used by technical traders to identify a given trend more easily. Heikin-Ashi has a smoother look because it is essentially taking an average of the movement. There is a tendency with Heikin-Ashi for the candles to stay red during a downtrend and green during an uptrend, whereas normal candlesticks alternate color even if the price is moving dominantly in one direction. This indicator actually recalculates the RSI indicator with the logic of heikin ashi. Due to smoothing, the bars are formed with a slight lag, reflecting the trend rather than the exact price movement. So lets look the original version to understand more clearly. If red bars turn to green bars it means uptrend may begin, if green bars turn to red it means downtrend may begin.
As you see HARSI giving lots of signal some of them is really good but some of them are not very well. Because it gives so much signals Now i will change time period and lets look same chart again.
Now results are better because of heikin ashi's logic. it is not suitable for day traders, it gives more accurate result when using the time period is longer. But it can be useful to use this indicator in short time periods using with other indicators. So you may catch the trend changes more accurately.
4 — MACD DEMA by ToFFF
This indicator uses a double EMA and MACD algorithm to analyze the direction of the trend. Though it might seem a tough task to manage the trades with the help of MACD DEMA once you know how the proper way to interpret the signal lines, it will be an easy task.
This indicator also smoothens the signal lines with the time series algorithm which eventually makes the higher time frame important. So, expecting better results in the lower time frame can result in big losses as the data reading from the MACD DEMA will not be accurate. In order to understand the function of this indicator, you have to know the functions of the EMA also.
The exponential moving average tends to give more priority to the recent price changes. So, expecting better results when the volatility is very high is a very risky approach to trade the market. Moreover, the MACD has some lagging issues compared to the EMA, so it is super important to use a trading method that focuses on the higher time frame only. What does MACD 12 26 Close 9 mean? When the DEMA-9 crosses above the MACD(12,26), this is considered a bearish signal. It means the trend in the stock – its magnitude and/or momentum – is starting to shift course. When the MACD(12,26) crosses above the DEMA-9, this is considered a bullish signal. Lets see this indicator on Chart.
When the blue line crossover red line it is good time to buy. As you see from the chart i put arrows where the crossover are appeared.
When the red line crossover blue line it is good time to sell or exit from position.
5 — WaveTrend Oscillator by LazyBear
This is a technical indicator that creates high and low bands between two values. It then creates a trend indicator that draws waves with highs and lows within these boundaries. WaveTrend is a widely used indicator for finding direction of an asset.
Calculation period: number of candles used to calculate WaveTrend, defaults to 10. Averaging period: number of candles used to average WaveTrend, defaults to 21.
As you see in chart when the lines crossover occured my strategy gives buy or sell signals.
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█ HOW TO USE
I hope you understand how the indicators I mentioned above work and what they are used for. Now, I will explain in detail how to use the strategy I have created.
When you enter the settings section, you will see 5 types of indicators. If you want to use the signals of the indicators, simply tick the box next to the indicators. Also, under each option there is an area where you can set the "lookback". This setting is a field that will make the signals overlap when you select more than one option. If you are going to trade with only one option, you should make sure that this field is 0. Otherwise, it may continue to generate as many signals as you choose.
Lets see in chart for easy understanding.
As you see chart, if i chose only HARSI with lookback 0 (HARSI and CORAL should be 1 minumum because of algorithm-we looking 1 bar before, others 0 because we are looking crossovers), it will give signals only when harsı bar's color changed. But when i changed Lookback as 7 it will be like this in chart.
Now i will choose 2 indicator with settings of their lookback 0.
As you see it will give signals when both of them occurs same time. But HARSI is an indicator giving very early signal so we can enter position 5-6 bars after the first bar color change. So i will change HARSI Lookback settings as 7. Lets look what happens when we use lookback option.
So it wil be useful to change lookback settings to find best signals in each time period and in each symbol. But it shouldnt be too high. Because you can be late to catch trend's starting.
this is an image of MACD and WAVE trend used and lookback option are both 6.
Now lets see an example with 3 options are chosen with lookback option 11-1-5
Now lets talk about indicators settings. After strategy options you will see each indicators settings, you can change their settings as you desired. So each indicators signal will be changed according to your adjustment.
I left strategy options with default settings. You can change it manually as if you want.
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█ LIMITATIONS: Don't rely on non-standard charts results. For example Heikin Ashi is a technical analysis method used with the traditional candlestick chart.Heikin Ashi vs. Candlestick Chart: The decisive visual difference between Heikin Ashi and the traditional chart is that Heikin Ashi flattens the traditional candlestick chart using a modified formula.
The primary advantage of Heikin Ashi is that it makes the chart more reader-friendly and helps users identify and analyze trends .
Because Heikin Ashi provides averaged price information rather than real-time price and reacts slowly to volatility — not suitable for scalpers and high-frequency traders. I added HARSI indicator as a supportive signal because it is useful with using CORAL and SSL channel indicators. If you change your candle types to Heikin Ashi , your profit will change in good way but dont rely on it.
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█ THANKS:
Special thanks to authors of the scripts that i used.
@LazyBear and @ErwinBeckers and @JayRogers and @ToFFF
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█ DISCLAIMER
Any trade decisions you make are entirely your own responsibility.
Price Bubble Meter (Moving Average to Price Distance)This indicator measures Price Distance (in %) from any given Moving Average.
It will help you see if the price is over extended or in the fair price zone.
Trend Analysis
How much % higher is the current price compared to 200W SMA
What % has been the maximum price rise from 200W SMA
What % has been the lowest price fall from 200W SMA
DCA Opportunity Finder
How much % higher is the current price compared to 2 year SMA
What % has been the maximum price rise from 2 year SMA
What % has been the lowest price fall from 2 year SMA
Yes you can manually measure it all using a ruler, but aint no one got time for that foo.
Fib Percentage Previous Day CloseIntraday regulated markets move within their circuit range above or below which the market activity is halted.
These levels are protected by the MM to accumulate or distribute. These levels are mostly same for all markets i.e. 2%, 4% , 5%, 10% and 20% of previous day close, crossing which the market activity halts.
So, from here the expectation of turning or breaking increases.
This indicator automatically plots the levels and helps understanding the price behavior at these points. This in turn helps taking better RR trades.
Killzone MTA ConceptsThis indicator indicates the Pre-Forex Market Killzones studied by our mentors at MTA Concepts. High volatility areas where you can take advantage of a great advantage when trading intraday.
Killzone: A killzone is an area, a time interval where there is high volatility and coincides with market pre-openings.
We have divided the Killzones into 3:
-London Killzone
-New York Killzone
-Asia Killzone
- Closing of operations: Time interval to take into account for the closing of intraday operations.
This indicator is prepared for intraday traders
Fourier Extrapolator of 'Caterpillar' SSA of Price [Loxx]Fourier Extrapolator of 'Caterpillar' SSA of Price is a forecasting indicator that applies Singular Spectrum Analysis to input price and then injects that transformed value into the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform algorithm to generate a price forecast. The indicator plots two curves: the green/red curve indicates modeled past values and the yellow/fuchsia dotted curve indicates the future extrapolated values.
What is the Fourier Transform Extrapolator of price?
Fourier Extrapolator of Price is a multi-harmonic (or multi-tone) trigonometric model of a price series xi, i=1..n, is given by:
xi = m + Sum( a*Cos(w*i) + b*Sin(w*i), h=1..H )
Where:
xi - past price at i-th bar, total n past prices;
m - bias;
a and b - scaling coefficients of harmonics;
w - frequency of a harmonic ;
h - harmonic number;
H - total number of fitted harmonics.
Fitting this model means finding m, a, b, and w that make the modeled values to be close to real values. Finding the harmonic frequencies w is the most difficult part of fitting a trigonometric model. In the case of a Fourier series, these frequencies are set at 2*pi*h/n. But, the Fourier series extrapolation means simply repeating the n past prices into the future.
Quinn-Fernandes algorithm find sthe harmonic frequencies. It fits harmonics of the trigonometric series one by one until the specified total number of harmonics H is reached. After fitting a new harmonic , the coded algorithm computes the residue between the updated model and the real values and fits a new harmonic to the residue.
see here: A Fast Efficient Technique for the Estimation of Frequency , B. G. Quinn and J. M. Fernandes, Biometrika, Vol. 78, No. 3 (Sep., 1991), pp . 489-497 (9 pages) Published By: Oxford University Press
Fourier Transform Extrapolator of Price inputs are as follows:
npast - number of past bars, to which trigonometric series is fitted;
nharm - total number of harmonics in model;
frqtol - tolerance of frequency calculations.
What is Singular Spectrum Analysis ( SSA )?
Singular spectrum analysis ( SSA ) is a technique of time series analysis and forecasting. It combines elements of classical time series analysis, multivariate statistics, multivariate geometry, dynamical systems and signal processing. SSA aims at decomposing the original series into a sum of a small number of interpretable components such as a slowly varying trend, oscillatory components and a ‘structureless’ noise. It is based on the singular value decomposition ( SVD ) of a specific matrix constructed upon the time series. Neither a parametric model nor stationarity-type conditions have to be assumed for the time series. This makes SSA a model-free method and hence enables SSA to have a very wide range of applicability.
For our purposes here, we are only concerned with the "Caterpillar" SSA . This methodology was developed in the former Soviet Union independently (the ‘iron curtain effect’) of the mainstream SSA . The main difference between the main-stream SSA and the "Caterpillar" SSA is not in the algorithmic details but rather in the assumptions and in the emphasis in the study of SSA properties. To apply the mainstream SSA , one often needs to assume some kind of stationarity of the time series and think in terms of the "signal plus noise" model (where the noise is often assumed to be ‘red’). In the "Caterpillar" SSA , the main methodological stress is on separability (of one component of the series from another one) and neither the assumption of stationarity nor the model in the form "signal plus noise" are required.
"Caterpillar" SSA
The basic "Caterpillar" SSA algorithm for analyzing one-dimensional time series consists of:
Transformation of the one-dimensional time series to the trajectory matrix by means of a delay procedure (this gives the name to the whole technique);
Singular Value Decomposition of the trajectory matrix;
Reconstruction of the original time series based on a number of selected eigenvectors.
This decomposition initializes forecasting procedures for both the original time series and its components. The method can be naturally extended to multidimensional time series and to image processing.
The method is a powerful and useful tool of time series analysis in meteorology, hydrology, geophysics, climatology and, according to our experience, in economics, biology, physics, medicine and other sciences; that is, where short and long, one-dimensional and multidimensional, stationary and non-stationary, almost deterministic and noisy time series are to be analyzed.
"Caterpillar" SSA inputs are as follows:
lag - How much lag to introduce into the SSA algorithm, the higher this number the slower the process and smoother the signal
ncomp - Number of Computations or cycles of of the SSA algorithm; the higher the slower
ssapernorm - SSA Period Normalization
numbars =- number of past bars, to which SSA is fitted
Included:
Bar coloring
Alerts
Signals
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Related Fourier Transform Indicators
Real-Fast Fourier Transform of Price w/ Linear Regression
Fourier Extrapolator of Variety RSI w/ Bollinger Bands
Fourier Extrapolator of Price w/ Projection Forecast
Related Projection Forecast Indicators
Itakura-Saito Autoregressive Extrapolation of Price
Helme-Nikias Weighted Burg AR-SE Extra. of Price
Related SSA Indicators
End-pointed SSA of FDASMA
End-pointed SSA of Williams %R
Machine Learning: kNN (New Approach)Description:
kNN is a very robust and simple method for data classification and prediction. It is very effective if the training data is large. However, it is distinguished by difficulty at determining its main parameter, K (a number of nearest neighbors), beforehand. The computation cost is also quite high because we need to compute distance of each instance to all training samples. Nevertheless, in algorithmic trading KNN is reported to perform on a par with such techniques as SVM and Random Forest. It is also widely used in the area of data science.
The input data is just a long series of prices over time without any particular features. The value to be predicted is just the next bar's price. The way that this problem is solved for both nearest neighbor techniques and for some other types of prediction algorithms is to create training records by taking, for instance, 10 consecutive prices and using the first 9 as predictor values and the 10th as the prediction value. Doing this way, given 100 data points in your time series you could create 10 different training records. It's possible to create even more training records than 10 by creating a new record starting at every data point. For instance, you could take the first 10 data points and create a record. Then you could take the 10 consecutive data points starting at the second data point, the 10 consecutive data points starting at the third data point, etc.
By default, shown are only 10 initial data points as predictor values and the 6th as the prediction value.
Here is a step-by-step workthrough on how to compute K nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm for quantitative data:
1. Determine parameter K = number of nearest neighbors.
2. Calculate the distance between the instance and all the training samples. As we are dealing with one-dimensional distance, we simply take absolute value from the instance to value of x (| x – v |).
3. Rank the distance and determine nearest neighbors based on the K'th minimum distance.
4. Gather the values of the nearest neighbors.
5. Use average of nearest neighbors as the prediction value of the instance.
The original logic of the algorithm was slightly modified, and as a result at approx. N=17 the resulting curve nicely approximates that of the sma(20). See the description below. Beside the sma-like MA this algorithm also gives you a hint on the direction of the next bar move.
Leavitt Convolution [CC]The Leavitt Convolution indicator was created by Jay Leavitt (Stocks and Commodities Oct 2019, page 11), who is most well known for creating the Volume-Weighted Average Price indicator. This indicator is very similar to my Leavitt Projection script and I forgot to mention that both of these indicators are actually predictive moving averages. The Leavitt Convolution indicator doubles down on this idea by creating a prediction of the Leavitt Projection which is another prediction for the next bar. Obviously this means that it isn't always correct in its predictions but it does a very good job at predicting big trend changes before they happen. The recommended strategy for how to trade with these indicators is to plot a fast version and a slow version and go long when the fast version crosses over the slow version or to go short when the fast version crosses under the slow version. I have color coded the lines to turn light green for a normal buy signal or dark green for a strong buy signal and light red for a normal sell signal, and dark red for a strong sell signal.
This is another indicator in a series that I'm publishing to fulfill a special request from @ashok1961 so let me know if you ever have any special requests for me.
FOMC & CPI DatesThis indicator plots vertical lines at the scheduled times of US Federal Reserve's FOMC Meeting Dates.
Data is based on U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes
Leavitt Projection [CC]The Leavitt Projection indicator was created by Jay Leavitt (Stocks and Commodities Oct 2019, page 11), who is most well known for creating the Volume-Weighted Average Price indicator. This indicator is very simple but is also the building block of many other indicators, so I'm starting with the publication of this one. Since this is the first in a series I will be publishing, keep in mind that the concepts introduced in this script will be the same across the entire series. The recommended strategy for how to trade with these indicators is to plot a fast version and a slow version and go long when the fast version crosses over the slow version or to go short when the fast version crosses under the slow version. I have color coded the lines to turn light green for a normal buy signal or dark green for a strong buy signal and light red for a normal sell signal, and dark red for a strong sell signal.
I know many of you have wondered where I have been, and my personal life has become super hectic. I was recently hired full-time by TradingView, and my wife is pregnant with twins, and she is due in a few months. I will do my absolute best to get back to posting scripts regularly, but I will post a bunch today in the meantime to fulfill a special request from one of my loyal followers (@ashok1961).
Adaptive Rebound Line (ARL)The Adaptive Rebound Line (ARL) focuses on the rebound of price action according to the trend.
While it does not focus on showing the trend, it does help in anticipating price rebounds.
It achieves this by adapting quickly and by reducing lag.
It is recommended to use this with a trend-identifying indicator.
It was inspired by the Hull Moving Average and the KAMA.
Additional indicator show in the chart is Tide Finder Plus .
Itakura-Saito Autoregressive Extrapolation of Price [Loxx]The Itakura–Saito distance is a Bregman divergence generated by minus the logarithmic function, but is not a true metric since it is not symmetric and it does not fulfil triangle inequality.
In Non-negative matrix factorization, the Itakura-Saito divergence can be used as a measure of the quality of the factorization: this implies a meaningful statistical model of the components and can be solved through an iterative method.
The Itakura-Saito distance is the Bregman divergence associated with the Gamma exponential family where the information divergence of one distribution in the family from another element in the family is given by the Itakura-Saito divergence of the mean value of the first distribution from the mean value of the second distribution.
Fed LiquidityFed liquidity model based on #MaxJAnderson's work. Incorporates the Treasury General Account, Reverse Repo and Fed balance sheet to determine how much "net liquidity" is available to markets. Very much a beta version.
EmirindicatorLook at the data while at the level you entered. The line below where you entered should be your Stop Loss level. The first line above it represents that you need to bring your Stop Loss level to your entry level and take some profit if you want. The top line is the sales level recommended by the program.
HPK Crash IndicatorFrom Hari P. Krishnan's book, The Second Leg Down: Strategies for Profiting after a Market Sell-Off :
"We start by specifying the year on year (YoY) change in the index. Next, we calculate the 5 year trailing Z score of the YoY returns. We also calculate the 5 year trailing Z score of 1 month historical volatility for the index, using daily returns. Our crisis warning indicator flashes if both Z scores are above 2. In other words, recent price increases and current volatility need to be at least 2 standard deviations above normal.
It can be seen that this basic implementation is reasonably effective, accepting that the effective sample set is small. A false signal is given in mid-2006, but the signal is quickly washed away. The remaining signals occur fairly close to the point of collapse. The idea that elevated volatility is predictive of danger is not new and underpins many asset allocation schemes. However, Sornette deserves credit for moving away from a largely valuation-based approach to predicting crises to one that relies upon price action itself."
Faytterro EstimatorWhat is Faytterro Estimator?
This indicator is an advanced moving average.
What it does?
This indicator is both a moving average and at the same time, it predicts the future values that the price may take based on the values it has taken before.
How it does it?
takes the weighted average of data of the selected length (reducing the weight from the middle to the ends). then draws a parabola through the last three values, creating a predicted line.
How to use it?
it is simple to use. You can use it both as a regression to review past prices, and to predict the future value of a price. uptrends are in green and downtrends are in red. color change indicates a possible trend change.
HTC_Bollinger_Band_Strategy_By_CorbachoEste indicador te da la visión del mercado y sus posibles rebotes con unas bandas de bollinger a 3 dispersiones tipicas. Añadiendo al grafico la SMA200 podemos ver si operamos a favor o en contra de la tendencia
