MoonFlag BTC Daily Swing PredictorThis script mainly works on BTC on the daily timeframe. Other coins also show similar usefulness with this script however, BTC on the daily timeframe is the main design for this script.
(Please note this is not trading advice this is just comments about how this indicator works.)
This script is predictive. It colors the background yellow when the script calculates a large BTC swing is potentially about to happen. It does not predict in which direction the swing will occur but it leads the price action so can be useful for leveraged trades. When the background gets colored with vertical yellow lines - this shows that a largish price swing is probably going to occur.
The scripts also shades bands around the price action that are used to estimate an acceptable volatility at any given time. If the bands are wide that means price action is volatile and large swings are not easily predicted. Over time, with reducing volatility, these price action bands narrow and then at a set point or percentage (%) which can be set in the script settings, the background gets colored yellow. This indicates present price action is not volatile and a large price swing is potentially going to happen in the near future. When price action breaks through the narrowing bands, the background is no longer presented because this is seen as an increase in volatility and a considerable portion of the time, a large sudden drop in price action or momentous gain in price is realized.
This indicator leads price action. It predicts that a swing is possibly going to happen in the near future. As the indicator works on the BTC daily, this means on a day-to-day basis if the bands continually narrow - a breakout is more likely to happen. In order to see how well this indicator works, have a look at the results on the screenshot provided. Note the regions where vertical yellow lines are present on the price action - and then look after these to see if a sizeable swing in price has occurred.
To use this indicator - wait until yellow vertical lines are presented on the BTC daily. Then use your experience to determine which way the price action might swing and consider entering a trade or leveraged trade in this direction. Alternatively wait a while to see in which direction the break-out occurs and considering and attempt to trade with this. Sometimes swings can be unexpected and breakout in one direction before then swinging much larger in the other. Its important to remember/consider that this indicator works on the BTC daily timeframe, so any consideration of entering a trade should be expected to cover a duration over many days or weeks, or possibly months. A large swing is only estimated every several plus months.
Most indicators are based on moving averages. A moving average is not predictive in the sense in that it lags price actions. This indicator creates bands that are based on the momentum of the price action. A change in momentum of price action therefore causes the bands to widen. When the bands narrow this means that the momentum of the price action is steady and price action volatility has converged/reduced over time. With BTC this generally means that a large swing in price action is going to occur as momentum in price action then pick-up again in one direction or another. Trying to view this using moving averages is not easy as a moving average lags price action which means that it is difficult to predict any sudden movements in price action ahead of when they might occur. Although, moving averages will converge over time in a similar manner as the bands calculated by this script. This script however, uses the price action momentum in a predictive manner to estimate where the price action might go based on present price momentum. This script therefore reacts to reduced volatility in price action much faster than a set of moving averages over various timescales can achieve.
MoonFlag
Forecasting
RSI Missmatch(Divergence) OSC. by Neo_ with Missmatch Alert█ Definition
A divergence or missmatch occurs when an asset’s price is moving opposite to a specific technical indicator or is moving in a different direction from other relevant data. The divergence indicator warns traders and technical analysts of changes in a price trend, oftentimes that it is weakening or changing direction.
Divergence or missmatch can be either positive, signifying the possibility of a move that is higher in the asset’s price, or it can be negative, signifying the possibility of a move that is lower in the asset’s price.
█ Takeaways
Divergence or missmatch often works with other indicators and data. It is usually used by technical analysts and traders when the asset’s price is moving counter to the direction of another indicator.
As mentioned above, positive divergence or missmatch indicates that the price could start rising and usually occurs when the price is moving lower, but while another indicator counters this direction by moving higher. In other words, showing bullish signals.
Negative divergence or missmatch indicates that the price could start declining and usually occurs when the price is moving higher, while another indicator moves lower as well. In other words, showing bearish signals.
█ What to look for
Divergence or missmatch is most often used to track and analyze the momentum in an asset’s price and the odds of a price reversal within the current trend. While using divergence, traders and analysts can decide on whether or not they would like to exit the position or set a stop loss in the case the divergence is negative and prices begin to fall.
█ Limitations
It is best to use divergence or missmatch with the aid of other indicators and analysis tools in order to help identify and confirm trend reversals and major market patterns. Divergence should not be relied on by itself to tell you the pertinent information you need to know as an investor. Risk control is key in your analysis and the fact that divergence is not always present in price reversals should definitely be what pushes you to combine it with other tools and indicators.
Additionally, divergence or missmatch can reflect long-term or short-term changes. When making snap decisions, acting on divergence alone could prove detrimental to your trading. Make sure you have other risk factors applied to your charting and general market analysis.
█ What exactly is RSI Missmatches discrepancies using a lookback period in trading?
In trading, lookback period is the number of periods of historical data used for observation and calculation. It is how far into the past the system looks when trying to calculate the variable under consideration. The concept was based on the fact that history can provide information about the future, and my aim was to predict the periods when trend changes would begin within these periods with the RSI oscillator. But this is only true if you're locked back far enough, not locked any further or less!
We already use the idea of looking back in different aspects of our lives, and even in the world of financial trading it can be used in various ways. Of course you will want to learn more about the concept, so in this article we will cover the following topics:
█ What kind of hindsight is this?
The aim here is to check whether trends will change in certain cycles, so we chose the High + Low / 2 formula as the source. Because no matter how much the prices swing up or down, sometimes the rebound can go further. The aim here is to notice the points where the price leaves a needle at the levels where it oscillates and the slowdown in momentum.
█ What does look-back period mean in trade?
To understand what a lookback period means in trading, you need to ask yourself: What is a lookback period in trading? In financial trading, period refers to the duration of a particular trading session. For example, a one-week period means one full week of trading sessions or five trading days. In 5 trading days, the average time is 120 hours in FX markets and 40 hours in stock markets. Regardless of what happens in these cycles, I prefer to choose a time period of 55 periods. Because I noticed that in all the charts I examined, the cycles generally changed during this time period.
█ Let's talk about the meaning of catching Missmatches
As you know, technical indicators are all a mathematical calculation using historical market data (price, volume, or a combination of both). It shows the behavior of the price better and helps in the analysis of price movement. But the indicator can only serve your intended purpose if you get the lookback time right. What we mean here is the setting parameter that determines how much historical data it will use in its calculation. In other words, it is the retrospective review period.
For example, on the RSI indicator you can set this period to 13 periods (default setting) or even 2 periods. The period you choose can determine what the indicator tells you, which in turn determines the strategy you can create with the indicator. The 13- period RSI gives you information about price momentum, so you can effectively use it to create a momentum strategy. On the other hand, the 2-periods RSI can be used to create a mean reversion strategy. To catch any incompatibilities, I set this period to 55 periods. Nothing more, nothing less!
█ Summary
The missmatch indicator helps traders assess changes in the price trend and indicates when price will move with or against the direction of another indicator. It can be either positive or negative, but it is important to note its limitations and that it should be used with other indicators that can also monitor price trends.
We wish you to identify these incompatibilities in the market in the best way possible... Good luck.
█ Tanım
Bir varlığın fiyatı belirli bir teknik göstergenin tersi yönünde hareket ettiğinde veya diğer ilgili verilerden farklı bir yönde hareket ettiğinde bir sapma veya uyumsuzluk meydana gelir. Farklılık göstergesi, tüccarları ve teknik analistleri fiyat eğilimindeki değişiklikler konusunda uyarır; çoğu zaman zayıflıyor veya yön değiştiriyor.
Farklılık veya uyumsuzluk, varlığın fiyatında daha yüksek bir hareket olasılığını işaret ederek pozitif olabilir veya varlığın fiyatında daha düşük bir hareket olasılığını işaret ederek negatif olabilir.
█ Çıkarımlar
Farklılık veya uyumsuzluk çoğu zaman diğer göstergeler ve verilerle de çalışır. Genellikle teknik analistler ve yatırımcılar tarafından varlığın fiyatı başka bir göstergenin yönünün tersine hareket ettiğinde kullanılır.
Yukarıda bahsedildiği gibi pozitif sapma veya uyumsuzluk, fiyatın yükselmeye başlayabileceğini gösterir ve genellikle fiyat düşerken meydana gelir, ancak başka bir gösterge bu yöne yükselerek karşı koyar. Başka bir deyişle yükseliş sinyalleri veriyor.
Negatif sapma veya uyumsuzluk, fiyatın düşmeye başlayabileceğini gösterir ve genellikle fiyat yükselirken başka bir gösterge de düşerken meydana gelir. Başka bir deyişle düşüş sinyalleri veriyor.
█ Nelere bakılmalı
Farklılık veya uyumsuzluk çoğunlukla bir varlığın fiyatındaki momentumu ve mevcut trend içinde fiyatın tersine dönme olasılığını izlemek ve analiz etmek için kullanılır. Farklılaşmayı kullanırken tüccarlar ve analistler, sapmanın negatif olması ve fiyatların düşmeye başlaması durumunda pozisyondan çıkmak isteyip istemeyeceklerine veya zararı durdurma kararı verip veremeyeceklerine karar verebilirler.
█ Sınırlamalar
Trend dönüşlerini ve ana piyasa modellerini tanımlamaya ve doğrulamaya yardımcı olmak için diğer göstergeler ve analiz araçlarının yardımıyla sapmayı veya uyumsuzluğu kullanmak en iyisidir. Bir yatırımcı olarak bilmeniz gereken ilgili bilgileri size söylemesi için farklılığa tek başına güvenilmemelidir. Risk kontrolü analizinizin anahtarıdır ve fiyat dönüşlerinde farklılığın her zaman mevcut olmaması gerçeği kesinlikle sizi onu diğer araç ve göstergelerle birleştirmeye iten şey olmalıdır.
Ek olarak, farklılık veya uyumsuzluk uzun vadeli veya kısa vadeli değişiklikleri yansıtabilir. Ani kararlar verirken yalnızca farklılıklara göre hareket etmek ticaretinize zarar verebilir. Grafiğinize ve genel piyasa analizinize başka risk faktörlerinin uygulandığından emin olun.
█ Ticarette yeniden inceleme dönemi kullanan RSI Missmatches tutarsızlıkları tam olarak nedir?
Ticarette yeniden inceleme süresi, gözlem ve hesaplama için kullanılan geçmiş verilerin dönemlerinin sayısıdır. Söz konusu değişkeni hesaplamaya çalışırken sistemin ne kadar geçmişe baktığıdır. Konsept tarihin geleceğe dair bilgi verebileceği gerçeği üzerine kuruluydu ve amacım RSI osilatörü ile bu dönemler içerisinde trend değişimlerinin başlayacağı dönemleri tahmin etmekti. Ancak bu yalnızca yeterince geriye kilitlenmişseniz geçerlidir, daha fazla veya daha az kilitlenmemişseniz!
Geriye bakma fikrini hayatımızın farklı yönlerinde zaten kullanıyoruz ve hatta finansal ticaret dünyasında bile bu fikir çeşitli şekillerde kullanılabilir. Elbette konsept hakkında daha fazla bilgi edinmek isteyeceksiniz, bu nedenle bu yazıda aşağıdaki konuları ele alacağız:
█ Bu nasıl bir sonradan görmedir?
Burada amaç belli döngülerde trendlerin değişip değişmeyeceğini kontrol etmek olduğundan kaynak olarak Yüksek + Düşük / 2 formülünü seçtik. Çünkü fiyatlar ne kadar yukarı veya aşağı hareket ederse etsin bazen toparlanma daha da ileri gidebiliyor. Burada amaç fiyatın salınım yaptığı seviyelerde iğne bıraktığı noktaları ve momentumdaki yavaşlamayı fark etmektir.
█ Ticarette geriye bakma süresi ne anlama geliyor?
Ticarette yeniden inceleme süresinin ne anlama geldiğini anlamak için kendinize şu soruyu sormanız gerekir: Ticarette yeniden inceleme süresi nedir? Finansal ticarette dönem, belirli bir ticaret seansının süresini ifade eder. Örneğin, bir haftalık dönem, bir tam haftalık işlem seansı veya beş işlem günü anlamına gelir. 5 işlem gününde ortalama süre döviz piyasalarında 120 saat, borsalarda ise 40 saattir. Bu döngülerde ne olursa olsun 55 periyotluk bir zaman dilimini seçmeyi tercih ediyorum. Çünkü incelediğim tüm grafiklerde bu zaman diliminde döngülerin genel olarak değiştiğini fark ettim.
█ Kaçak Eşleşmeleri yakalamanın anlamı hakkında konuşalım
Bildiğiniz gibi teknik göstergeler, geçmiş piyasa verileri (fiyat, hacim veya her ikisinin birleşimi) kullanılarak yapılan matematiksel hesaplamalardır. Fiyatın davranışını daha iyi gösterir ve fiyat hareketinin analizine yardımcı olur. Ancak gösterge yalnızca yeniden inceleme süresini doğru yaparsanız amacınıza hizmet edebilir. Burada kast ettiğimiz, hesaplamasında ne kadar geçmiş veri kullanacağını belirleyen ayar parametresidir. Bir başka deyişle geriye dönük inceleme dönemidir.
Örneğin RSI göstergesinde bu süreyi 13 döneme (varsayılan ayar) ve hatta 2 döneme ayarlayabilirsiniz. Seçeceğiniz dönem, göstergenin size ne söyleyeceğini belirleyebilir ve bu da gösterge ile oluşturabileceğiniz stratejiyi belirler. 13 dönemlik RSI size fiyat momentumu hakkında bilgi verir, böylece onu bir momentum stratejisi oluşturmak için etkili bir şekilde kullanabilirsiniz. Öte yandan, ortalamaya dönüş stratejisi oluşturmak için 2 dönemlik RSI kullanılabilir. Herhangi bir uyumsuzluğu yakalamak için bu periyodu 55 periyoda ayarladım. Ne fazla ne eksik!
█ Özet
Uyumsuzluk göstergesi, yatırımcıların fiyat eğilimindeki değişiklikleri değerlendirmesine yardımcı olur ve fiyatın ne zaman başka bir göstergenin yönüne göre veya ona karşı hareket edeceğini gösterir. Olumlu ya da olumsuz olabilir, ancak sınırlamalarına dikkat etmek ve fiyat eğilimlerini de izleyebilecek diğer göstergelerle birlikte kullanılması gerektiğini unutmamak önemlidir.
Piyasadaki bu uyumsuzlukları en iyi şekilde tespit etmenizi dileriz... Bol Kazançlar.
Universal RPPI Indices & Futures [SS Premium]Hello everyone,
For the much-anticipated indicator release, the universal RPPI for Futures and Indices!
If you follow me, chances are you know this indicator by now, since its the basis of all of my analyses and target prices, but if not, let me introduce you!
What is it?
The RPPI for Indices & Futures is essentially a compendium indicator. It contains hundreds of, just over 100 different math models of various futures and indices.
These models are designed to forecast the current targets on multiple timeframes including:
1. The daily
2. The weekly
3. The monthly
4. The Three Month (for SPY and QQQ ONLY)
5. The 6 Month (for DJI, SPX and USOIL/CLI1! ONLY)
6. The annual (for DJI, SPX and USOIL/CLI1! ONLY)
7. The 3 hour
So I will go over the details of the models within the indicators compendium and how they are produced. If you are not interested, just skip to the next section!
What is a model and how is it produced?
Models are math equations and frameworks that attempt to predict future behavior. They are developed in many ways and through many methods. In this particular indicator, each index and future is unique and has been created in various ways, such as using principles of data smoothing, data interpolation, data substitution and data omission.
All this means is, I have manually adjusted model parameters to correct for rare, outlier events. The outcome is having a more accurate model that is better prepared to predict what you want it to predict.
Now let's get into the indicator use.
The first thing we need to talk about is selecting a model type. Different model types are available on a handful of stocks in the indicator, such as SPY, QQQ, DJI and DIA, and so it is important to explain the difference.
Corrected vs Uncorrected Models (i.e. Low Precision vs High Precision Models)
In the settings menu, you will see the second option that reads "Precision". This is where you have the ability to select the model type.
"High Precision" is a corrected model. It is a model that I have used data manipulation for (like the examples above) to enhance its accuracy.
"Low Precision" is a UNCORRECTED model. These models have undergone no data manipulation and are just raw projections.
Which do you use?
There are only a handful of tickers that have both models, like SPY, GLD1! and DJI (among others). Some tickers perform better with low precision models, others perform better with high precision models.
To know what model works best with which stock, the indicator will tell you. At the bottom of the settings table, simply select "Show Model Data":
Selecting this, you will get a table that looks like this:
It will tell you the available model types and which one works best. For IWM, the high-precision corrected model is best. This is true for QQQ and NQ1! as well. However, for SPY and ES1!, the uncorrected model is actually better:
Sometimes, different models perform better at various levels of precision, for example, high on the monthly but low on the daily.
This is why I have omitted this option for the majority of stocks. I don't want this to be confusing to use. For 90% of the included tickers, I have selected the model of best fit. However, for a few of the very popular and volatile tickers (ES, NQ specifically), I have included the ability to use both.
Rule of Thumb:
The rule of thumb with selecting high vs low, is essentially this:
a) If the market is hugely volatility with major swings intraday that exceed its normal behaviour, switch to the low precesion model. This will not be skewed by the massive swings.
b) If the market is stable, trendy or range bound, but not trending beyond its normal, general behaviour, keep it at high precision.
With that, you will be good to go!
Using the indicator:
The indicator is intended as a standalone indicator. Of course, you can combine other indicators that you like to help you out, but there is a strategy version of this that will be released within the coming days/weeks, as this is intended to be a full strategy in and of itself.
As with the universal forecaster, you are given threshold levels that are labelled "Bullish Condition" and "Bearish Condition", a break and hold of the "Bullish Condition" and it is a long to the high targets. Inverse for the bearish condition.
In addition to these conditionals, the indicator also provides you with a high probability retracement level. These are available on the weekly, monthly and higher timeframes. A special moving retracement level is available for SPY only, however it moves based on the PA to give you a sort of POC.
Testing Model Performance:
It is possible to see model performance. At the bottom of the settings menu, select the option to "Show Demographic Data". You need to be sure you are on the chart of the selected timeframe.
This is ES1! on the daily timeframe. It shows you the demographics, i.e. the extent targets are hit, the extent that the high prob retracement targets are missed, the extent that ES closes in and out of its daily range.
This is very valuable information. This table is essentially saying there is only a 10% chance that ES will close above its range and a 9% chance ES closes below its range. This means, that the most ideal setups are a move outside of its range!!
You can view it on all timeframes. If your chart isn't aligned with the lookback, you will get a warning sign:
Misc Functions:
Show price accumulation:
There is an option to toggle on price accumulation. It will show you the amount of accumulation in each of the ranges:
This will show where the accumulation of price rests in relation to the targets.
Autoregression Assessment:
You can have the indicator plot an autoregressive trendline of the expected stock trajectory. You can select the forecast length and it will plot the direction it suspects the stock will go:
Show Standard Deviation:
In the menu, you can toggle on the show standard deviation function. This will plot the standard deviation that each price rests at. The default timeframe for standard deviation is the daily. If you are looking at the weekly, please select the weekly timeframe.
This is helpful because you can see which targets are likely based on where the standard deviation rests. In the above example, a move to the low range would be a move to -2 standard deviations and beyond. This is not something that a ticker would normally do in general circumstances.
FAQ Table:
There is also an option to display an FAQ table. This will show you model revisions and pending revision dates. This will allow you to see when each model was last updated and when new updates will be pushed:
Which models does this contain?
The indicator contains models for the following stocks:
SPY
QQQ
DIA
DJI
ES1!
SPX
NQ1!
NDX
SOXX
IWM
RTY
GCL1! (Gold)
CL1! / USOIL (Oil)
XLE
XLF
YM1!
And some more are in the works (like JETS).
NOTE: Feel free to leave a comment of future ones you would like to see!
The indicator will automatically select the model for whichever ticker you are on.
Some models are cross-compatible, such as CL1! and USOIL, but the indicator is programmed to recognize those that are cross-compatible and auto-select those models.
From there, you just need to select the timeframe you wish to view!
And that is the indicator! I know very wordy explanation but wanted to cover all basis on the indicator so you can be well prepared!
As always, leave your questions, and comments below, and safe trades!
Universal Forecaster [SS Premium]This is the Universal Forecaster as part of the Elite level.
About:
The universal forecast creates autofitted models for most financial instruments using an ATR approach. It will provide a Bullish and Bearish threshold condition, prospective low targets and prospective high targets. It will autofit and no user inputs are required to manually adjust the parameters.
In addition to this, the indicator also has some build in functions to augment its functionality, including:
a) Built in Autoregression Forecaster;
b) Built in ARIMA plotter;
c) Built in Probability Assessor;
d) Ability to plot next day targets and thresholds;
e) Ability to expand targets up to 3 standard deviations from its projected levels;
d) Has the ability to generate models for most to all timeframes (from as low at 5 minutes to as high as yearly)
Functionality:
Off the bat, the indicator will provide you with the conditional levels and immediate target ranges. A break above a conditional level generally means a move to the high range and a break below, a move to the low range.
If a ticker extends beyond the immediate forecasted range, the indicator has the ability to expand the ranges (see example below):
It will do this automatically in response to a range exceedance.
The indicator anchors from the previous day close, which gives it the ability to show you the next day targets and thresholds:
In addition to being able to plot the next day targets, it is also capable of auto generating a probability assessment based on the model it creates:
The indicator provides 2 probability types, momentum probability which uses technicals and z-score probability which uses standard deviation:
It will display the backtest results as well as a break down of the similar cases identified (see image above).
If there are no cases, the indicator will alert you. You can then change the probability type to see if the other one can find cases:
Make sure when you are running the probability assessment, your chart matches the timeframe you are running the assessment for!
The indicator also provides a trade planner to help you ascertain high probability trades based on each unique ticker's behaviour. When toggled on, it will display the various condition possibilities, and the common resulting behaviour:
You can also get shorter timeframe levels, here is an example of hourly levels:
The indicator also works really well with most Crypto.
Here is BTC using weekly levels:
And ADAUSD using monthly levels:
In addition to running an autoregression forecast, you can also run an ARIMA plot directly from the indicator itself and have it plot the bullish or bearish case:
Bullish case:
Bearish case:
The indicator is intended as a stand-alone indicator and can be used as its own strategy. The strategy is fairly straight forward, a break and hold of the bullish conditional, long to the high targets, inverse for a break of the bearish.
Key take-aways and tips:
Can be used on all timeframes;
When running probabilities, please ensure that you are on the chart you are running the probabilities for. So if you are running for the next day, please make sure you are on the daily timeframe.
The ARIMA and Autoregression will default to whichever timeframe you are on.
And that is the indicator!
Let me know your questions below and enjoy!
RSI Levels On Chart [MisterMoTA]The values of the RSI Levels On Chart are calculated using Reverse Engineering RSI calculations by Giorgos Siligardos, Ph.D.
Instead of using only the 50 line of the RSI on chart I added options for users to define the Extreme Overbought and Oversold values, also simple Oversold and Overbought values, start of Bullish and Bearish zones and the 50 rsi value.
With the RSI Levels On Chart users are able to see on chart the price that a candles need to close for a certain value of the RSI. E.g. what price is needed for the RSI to be at oversold 30 or what would be the price when rsi will cross the 50 line.
The script has the 50 line color coded that will turn red when the line falling and will change to the user input color when it will be rising, helping users to see fast the clear trend of any asset on any timeframe from 1 second to 12 months.
I added few alerts for rsi overbought, oversold, extreme overbought and extreme oversold, crossing 50 level, crossing bullish or bearish zones values and also alerts for the 50 line falling or rising.
You can use RSI Levels On Chart as a simple indicator or you can add your favorite oscilator(s) to have a clear view of the trends of the markets, in this demo I added RSI + Divergences + Alerts with a moving average set to 50 RMA.
AlgoRhythmica - Liquidity MapThe AlgoRhythmica - Liquidity Map is a complex and performance heavy indicator, attempting to visualize and highlight areas of liquidity on the chart. It paints lines above and below price with different color and opacity based on the volume, and then highlight the areas with the highest cumulative volume.
What is liquidity and a liquidity map?
Liquidity refers to how quickly and easily an asset can be bought or sold in the market without affecting its price. High liquidity means that there are many buyers and sellers, and transactions can happen rapidly and smoothly.
Liquidity analysis involves examining where and how liquidity is distributed across different price levels.
Price often moves from liquidity zone to liquidity zone, and therefore, having an idea of where those zones are can give traders an understanding of potential support and resistance levels and where significant trading activities might occur.
Those looking to fill large buy orders for example would want to do that in liquid sell areas and vice versa. This indicator attempts to estimate the price levels where traders using leverage get liquidated, and therefore creates liquid areas for buying and selling.
In contrast to Bookmaps which chart the orders in the order book where traders want to transact, a liquidity map is charting where traders are 'forced' to transact due to stop-losses or margin calls. To do that, liquidity maps are mostly based on estimations. It could be based on pivot points, common stop-loss amounts, common leverage amounts or a combination of multiple factors.
As of the current version on release, this indicator is only using the leverage input by the user to estimate the liquidity.
How does it work and what makes it unique?
The indicator takes the volume in a candle and saves that volume in a line. Based on the leverage settings it then offsets that line above and below price. Say, a trader using 20x leverage without a stop-loss gets liquidated if price goes roughly 5% in the wrong direction. Therefore, by assuming common leverage amounts or common risk amounts, we can estimate where traders get liquidated or have their stop-losses based on their leverage or amount they are willing to risk.
Now keep in mind, this liquidity map is just estimating based on general assumptions, it doesn't have access to actual liquidity data.
But at the same time, we're not trading single individual traders, but we're trading the market as a whole, and interestingly enough, some risk and leverage amounts are more common than others. People like using those even numbers like 10x, 20x, 1% risk etc. That's why price do often react on the liquidity in liquidity maps such as this one.
So, when a candle is printed, and you are on a smaller timeframe and decided this is just the kind of market for 100x scalpers. You set the leverage to 100x in the settings and the indicator will paint lines above and below price offset by 1%. There are settings for three leverage amounts at the same time, so you might also set it to paint lines at 5% and 10%, just to catch those traders on higher timeframes if price really takes off.
Now let's talk about what makes this indicator really shine and stand out!
Normally, if we just left the indicator doing as above, there would be lines all over the place and very difficult to interpret which areas matter, or we could limit the indicator to only print lines at high volume candles. Now, you do have that option, but that wouldn't pick up areas where low volume trading has cumulated in the same range, such as over a weekend or during market gaps. Where other liquidity indicators out there might miss that liquidity, this indicator has several solutions for it.
The first solution is stacking semi-transparent lines on top of each other. Normally, lines of the same color and transparency wouldn't add and blend together. But this script offers a seamless transition from one color the next, blending those low volume liquidity lines together.
The second solution, and this is what I believe is really unique and powerful, is that this indicator also has the ability highlight certain liquidity. When enabled, it scans through all the lines, cumulate the volume within a specified range around the lines and then compare the cumulated volume range with the ranges around the other lines. New lines created in the range with the highest cumulated volume gets highlighted.
Without this feature you wouldn't necessarily be able to tell which of two strong areas are more liquid. When price later enters that area and crosses those lines, the liquidity there is then considered consumed and lines created in a different range will now begin to highlight.
All of this is of course enhanced, as in the picture above, when multiple copies of the indicator is used together and assigned to only calculate specific parts of the liquidity map, such as longs, shorts or specific leverage amounts.
Oh, and there's also options for assigning which part of the candle should generate the liquidity. Close, Middle Body or Open. The indicator will then assume that the majority of traders are entering their position in that part of the candle.
The offset is calculated from that part of the candle. By using multiple copies of the indicator, you can assign one for each part and that will give you the whole range of the candle. And you might assume more traders go long from the top, so to emphasize that liquidity, you could increase the size or transparency slightly of the lines generated from that part.
How do I use it?
Well, this isn't gonna give you trading signals or anything, but it will visualize the market for you in a new perspective.
Typically, high liquidity areas are often good areas for entry and TP. But always watch how the price reacts in those areas before entering a position. And remember, the liquidity estimation might not always be accurate.
Particularly watch the highlighted areas for long wicks and high volume, indicating that the liquidity was enough to meet the orders and a retrace or reversal could be imminent.
Watch what happens during consolidation, market gaps and weekends. Notice the lack of liquidity and how the market maker creates liquidity by inducing traders to take positions with quick moves that instantly reverses. You might know how that works in theory, but watching it happen real-time with visualized liquidity is very interesting.
While not necessary, and as I've mentioned earlier, dividing the different functions of the indicator on multiple copies will substantially increase it's accuracy and performance!
For example, use one copy of the indicator per leverage level, or one for shorts, one for longs. One that generates from the close, one from the middle etc. creating a much clearer picture of the liquidity like the picture comparison above.
This is what the indicator offers:
When you're estimating liquidity, you want to be able to do it with accuracy and interpretability. That's why the customization options of this indicator has been really important in the development.
Timeframe Options:
It supports a wide range of time periods, from daily to yearly, enabling traders to apply it across various trading strategies, from short-term day trading to long-term investment analysis. Assuming traders are eventually taking their profits, liquidity after the set time period disappears.
Rich Visual Settings:
The indicator comes with multiple preset color themes and a completely customizable option as well. These visual settings are designed to enhance the interpretability of liquidity data, with adjustable transparency and contrast features.
Liquidity Highlighting Function:
This unique feature emphasizes areas with high liquidity concentration. It scans and highlights significant liquidity zones, aiding traders in identifying critical market levels.
Liquidity Profile:
The LQ-Profile extends liquidity lines based on their associated volume, giving traders another way of identifying high liquidity zones.
Adjustable Liquidity Estimation:
Select and adjust leverage amounts based on your particular chart and analysis. Choose what positions and leverage amounts to display liquidity for. You also have the option to determine if wicks consume liquidity or not.
Since wicks indicate that price was rejected from that area, it doesn't necessarily mean all the liquidity in that area was consumed. You could assign an additional copy of the indicator consuming with wicks and another that doesn't. That way, half the liquidity gets consumed and the other half remains until another candle closes in that area. They choices are endless and it's all about your understanding and analysis here.
Multiple Performance Options:
Depending on your particular chart and timeframe, this indicator can be very performance heavy to load. Luckily it has plenty of performance options for limiting the calculations of the indicator.
Tooltips:
As usual, this indicator comes with extensive tooltips for every function, making sure you understand every part of it.
Happy trading!
Macro Matrix [Pro+] (DRxICT)Description:
Visualize the intricacies of the financial markets with Macro Matrix, a tool meticulously crafted with insights drawn from the teachings of Inner Circle Trader (ICT), and enhanced by ICT_Concepts.
A Macro is a short list of orders that the Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) will run to determine which liquidity to seek or which inefficiencies to rebalance. ICT traders are taught to focus on these Time windows to frame the clearest narrative and observe defining market behaviour. Traders can use the Macro Matrix to stay alerted about key market timings and price swings that arise during these times.
The Macro Matrix Pro+ brings the power of Macros to new heights thanks to ICT_Concepts’s studies of the market, by taking the price range defined by a Macro Time Window (i.e. 9:50-10:10 AM New York Time), and projecting it above and below the original range creating extensions, similar to DR models. Analysts can use these extensions to measure future price swings as targets, retracement levels, or key reversals.
In addition, analysts have the flexibility to choose different extensions over time. Extend projections until the next Macro, for the next 3 Macros, or even for a whole day. By considering and cross-referencing previous Macros, analysts can gain insights into their potential impact on the market and identify key market pivots.
When news events occur in specific macros on specific days of the week, these time based ranges can offer unique insights. This is particularly true when we consider the different impacts that various days of the week can have on market trends. By analyzing news events that fall within macro time ranges, analysts can gain a deeper understanding of the ranges that influence future market movements.
Key Features:
Day of the Week Filtering: refine your macro selection by implementing a day-of-the-week filter. This feature allows you to precisely tailor your chosen macros, enabling you to identify specific time-based opportunities within the week.
CME_MINI:ES1! Friday Macros only:
Macro Range: choose whether to base your macro range projections on the candle bodies or the wicks, offering you versatile control over your analysis and automate drawings.
CME_MINI:NQ1! Body vs. Wick difference:
Macro Extension: toggle between different extension methods to identify prior macro levels for future opportunities. Select to extend macro lines at intervals of 3, 6, 9 macros, or 1, 2, 3 days.
CME_MINI:NQ1! Different Extension periods:
Automatic Macro Coloring: choose to automatically color the macros based on the relationship of the open and the close or choose a single color to identify the macros and projections. Bullish macros will be colored blue and bearish macros will be colored red by default.
FOREXCOM:EURUSD Note how coloring helps determine narrative throughout the day:
Macro Open, Close, and Range Projections: identify key price levels of algorithmic timings to locate price inefficiencies, liquidity pools of interest, and equilibrium price points of fair value. Easily select these levels, as well as range projections up to 2.5 standard deviations.
CME_MINI:NQ1! Levels legend:
Alert Systems: customize alerts with flexible intervals preceding macro initiation in the market. Craft personalized alerts to stay informed and prepared for future market movements.
Usage Guidance:
Add Macro Matrix to your Tradingview chart.
Tailor your experience by toggling specific Time-based macros and style your perspective to be aligned with your analytical preference.
Observe where and when the market begins its macros, and how projections are utilized to influence macro or micro trends.
Leverage this invaluable information with other models and insights to create a stronger narrative for your analysis.
These tools are available ONLY on the TradingView platform.
Terms and Conditions
Our charting tools are products provided for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Our charting tools are not designed to predict market movements or provide specific recommendations. Users should be aware that past performance is not indicative of future results and should not be relied upon for making financial decisions. By using our charting tools, the purchaser agrees that the seller and the creator are not responsible for any decisions made based on the information provided by these charting tools. The purchaser assumes full responsibility and liability for any actions taken and the consequences thereof, including any loss of money or investments that may occur as a result of using these products. Hence, by purchasing these charting tools, the customer accepts and acknowledges that the seller and the creator are not liable nor responsible for any unwanted outcome that arises from the development, the sale, or the use of these products. Finally, the purchaser indemnifies the seller from any and all liability. If the purchaser was invited through the Friends and Family Program, they acknowledge that the provided discount code only applies to the first initial purchase of the Toodegrees Premium Suite subscription. The purchaser is therefore responsible for cancelling – or requesting to cancel – their subscription in the event that they do not wish to continue using the product at full retail price. If the purchaser no longer wishes to use the products, they must unsubscribe from the membership service, if applicable. We hold no reimbursement, refund, or chargeback policy. Once these Terms and Conditions are accepted by the Customer, before purchase, no reimbursements, refunds or chargebacks will be provided under any circumstances.
By continuing to use these charting tools, the user acknowledges and agrees to the Terms and Conditions outlined in this legal disclaimer.
SMIIO + VolumeThis indicator generates long and short signals.
The operation of the indicator is as follows;
First, true strength index is calculated with closing prices. We call this the "ergodic" curve.
Then the average of the ergodic (ema) is calculated to obtain the "signal" curve.
To calculate the "oscillator", the signal is subtracted from ergodic (oscillator = ergodic - signal).
The last variable to be used in the calculation is the average volume, calculated with sma.
Calculation for long signal;
- If the ergodic curve cross up the zero line (ergodic > 0 AND ergodic < 0) and,
- If the current oscillator is greater than the previous oscillator (oscillator > oscillator ) and,
- If the current ergonic is greater than the previous signal (ergonic > signal) and,
- If the current volume is greater than the average volume (volume > averageVolume) and,
- If the current candle closing price is greater than the opening price (close > open)
If all the above conditions are fullfilled, the long input signal is issued with "Buy" label.
Calculation for short signal;
- If the ergodic curve cross down the zero line (ergodic < 0 AND ergodic > 0) and,
- If the current oscillator is smaller than the previous oscillator (oscillator < oscillator ) and,
- If the current ergonic is smaller than the previous signal (ergonic < signal) and,
- If the current volume is greater than the average volume (volume > averageVolume) and,
- If the current candle closing price is smaller than the opening price (close < open)
If all the above conditions are fullfilled, the short input signal is issued with "Sell" label.
Live Economic Calendar by toodegrees⚠️ PLEASE READ ⚠️
Although this indicator is accurate in showcasing live and upcoming News Events, checking the original sources is always suggested. This indicator aims to save Time, but due to limitations it may not be 100% correct 100% of the Time.
Description:
The Live Economic Calendar indicator seamlessly integrates with external news sources to provide real-Time, upcoming, and past financial news directly on your Tradingview chart.
By having a clear understanding of when news are planned to be released, as well as their respective impact, analysts can prepare their weeks and days in advance. These injections of volatility can be harnessed by analysts to support their thesis, or may want to be avoided to ensure higher probability market conditions. Fundamentals and news releases transcend the boundaries of technical analysis, as their effects are difficult to predict or estimate.
Designed for both novice and experienced traders, the Live Economic Calendar indicator enhances your analysis by keeping you informed of the latest and upcoming market-moving news.
This is achieved with three different visual components:
News Table: A dedicated News Table shows the Day of the Week, Date, Time of the Day, Currency, Expected Impact, and News Name for each event (in chronological order). Once a news event has occurred, or the day is over, it will be greyed out – helping to focus on the next upcoming news events.
News Lines: Vertical lines plotted in the future help analysts monitor upcoming news events; vertical lines in the past help analysts spot and backtest previous news events that already occurred.
News Labels: Color-coded news labels will plot once the news events have occurred. This not only gives analysts a minimalistic visual cue, but also retains the information of which news were released at that Time in their tooltips.
Forex Factory Calendar News Feed:
The Forex Factory Data Feed includes news events from January 2007 to the present. The data is updated daily. Please see the Technical Description below for more information.
Forex Factory provides news for all major currencies and markets:
Australia (AUD)
Canada (CAD)
Switzerland (CHF)
China (CNY)
European Union (EUR)
United Kingdom (GBP)
Japan (JPY)
New Zealand (NZD)
United States of America (USD)
Further, there are four types of news impact, defined by respective color-coding which is retained to avoid confusion:
⚪ Holiday
🟡 Low Impact
🟠 Medium Impact
🔴 High Impact
News' Time of the day data is in 24H format, and 'All Day' news are marked at Daily candle open.
⚠️ Original Release Notes ⚠️
The original release of this indicator supports the Forex Factory News Calendar in EST (New York Time). Future updates will include multiple news sources, as well as supporting different Timezones.
Given Data limitations, the Daily chart can omit some data due to the market being close on some days. This will be fixed in the future once an efficient solution is implemented.
Key Features:
Impact-Based News Filtering: Filter news items based on their expected impact (holiday, low, medium, high) to focus on the most market-critical information.
Symbol-Specific News: Automatically filter news to display only what's relevant to the currency pair or trading symbol you are analyzing.
Custom Currency News: Want to see more than the news relevant to the current symbol? Toggle which markets' news you are most interested in.
Chart History: Keep your charts clean by displaying only the drawings of Today's news, or This Week's news.
Custom Lookback: Look further back in Time by choosing a custom number of Lookback Days, allowing you to backtest and keep in mind salient news events from the past.
Line and Label Customization: Both the News Lines and Labels are highly customizable (except the colors), allowing you to make the indicator yours.
Table History: Choose whether to focus on Today's news only, or the news for This Week.
Table Customization: The table colors and position are highly customizable, allowing you to make it fit your visual preference and your layouts' aesthetic.
"Wondering how it's done? 👇"
Technical Description:
This script utilizes Pine Seeds , a service integrated with TradingView for importing custom data. This stunning feature enables users to upload and access custom End Of Day (EOD) data, which can be updated as frequently as five times daily.
This data can be imported in one of two formats:
Single Value: integer or float
Candle Data: open, high, low, close, volume
Upon encountering Pine Seeds, I recognized its potential for importing financial news events. Given that Forex Factory is a primary source of financial news in my personal analysis, integrating it into my layouts seemed like an exciting opportunity. This integration is expected to provide significant value to users looking to integrate additional news feeds all in one place.
Development Challenges:
Format Limitations: News events must be converted into numerical values for import, due to the required Pine Seeds format.
Amount of Data: With all currencies considered, the system may encounter over 40 news events in a single day.
Data Availability: The reliance on End Of Day (EOD) data means that information for the current day is displayed with a delay, and accessing future data is not possible.
Solutions:
Encoding: Each news event is encoded as an integer in the "DCHHMMITYP" format.
D = day of the week
C = currency
HHMM = Time of day
I = news impact
TYP = event ID (see Event Library A and Event Library B )
To ensure data assignment for each candle across the open, high, low, close, and volume series, the value "999" is used as a placeholder:
Importing: Utilizing the encoding system, up to five news events per day can be imported for a singular Pine Seeds custom symbol.
By creating multiple custom Pine Seeds Symbols, efficient imports of a larger number of events is then easily achievable. Nine unique symbols have been established, accommodating up to 45 news events per day.
These symbols are searchable, and accessible as " TOODEGREES_FOREX_FACTORY_SLOT_N " where N ranges from 1 to 9.
The Pine Seeds data feed appears as follows:
Uploading Schedule: To ensure analysts are informed about current and upcoming week's news, events are uploaded one week in advance.
This approach is vital for preparing for potential market impacts across various asset classes and currencies, allowing visibility of an entire week's news ahead of Time.
Data Scraping:
Unfortunately Forex Factory doesn't offer an API to fetch their news feed.
Hence an ad hoc python scraper was developed to read and save news events from January 2007 till the present leveraging Selenium. The scraper algorithm is part of a larger script responsible for scraping data, formatting data, and creating all necessary datasets.
The pseudo-code for the python script is as follows:
Read and save news event data on Forex Factory
Format day of the week, currency, Time of the day, and impact data for the Encoding
Encode and save News Event IDs – Event ID dataset is created
Format news data for Pine Seeds (roll-back date by one week, assign news to open, high, low, close, and volume values)
Create Pine Seeds Datasets
This script is ran everyday at Futures market close (16:00 EST) to update the last part of the each dataset, ensuring accuracy, and taking into account last-minute news additions or revisions.
Once the data (next week's news) is imported by the Live Economic Calendar indicator, it's immediately decoded by leveraging the Forex Factory Decoding Library , and saved into an array.
Upon a new week open, the decoded data is used to plot news events on the chart and in the news table.
See the inner workings of these processes in the Forex Factory Utility Library .
Although these libraries are specifically built for this indicator, feel free to use them to create your own scripts. Looking forward to see what the Pine Script community comes up with!
Thank you for making it this far. Enjoy!
Ciao,
toodegrees
This tool is available ONLY on the TradingView platform.
Terms and Conditions
Our charting tools are provided for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Our charting tools are not designed to predict market movements or provide specific recommendations. Users should be aware that past performance is not indicative of future results and should not be relied upon for making financial decisions. By using our charting tools, the user agrees that Toodegrees and the Toodegrees Team are not responsible for any decisions made based on the information provided by these charting tools. The user assumes full responsibility and liability for any actions taken and the consequences thereof, including any loss of money or investments that may occur as a result of using these products. Hence, by using these charting tools, the user accepts and acknowledges that Toodegrees and the Toodegrees Team are not liable nor responsible for any unwanted outcome that arises from the development, or the use of these charting tools. Finally, the user indemnifies Toodegrees and the Toodegrees Team from any and all liability.
By continuing to use these charting tools, the user acknowledges and agrees to the Terms and Conditions outlined in this legal disclaimer.
F.B_Vortex Indicator ProThe "F.B_Vortex Indicator Pro" is a technical analysis tool designed to identify trends in financial markets. It calculates two Vortex Indicators (VI) based on price movements, considering positive and negative price changes.
The smoothed VI+ line represents the smoothed negative trend, while the smoothed VI+ line represents the smoothed positive trend.
The crossing of the smoothed VI+ line above the smoothed VI+ line could indicate a potential bullish trend.
Conversely, the crossing of the smoothed VI+ line above the smoothed VI+ line suggests a possible bearish trend.
The "Smoothed VI-" line is also displayed.
When the Smoothed VI- line is above both the smoothed VI+ line and the smoothed VI+ line, it may signal a transition to a bearish main trend or indicate an expected one.
When the Smoothed VI- line is below both the smoothed VI+ line and the smoothed VI+ line, it may indicate a transition to a bullish main trend or suggest an expected one.
Adjustments can be made using input parameters such as length and smoothing periods to tailor the indicator to specific market conditions.
itradesize /\ Silver Bullet x Macro x KillzoneThis indicator shows the best way to annotate ICT Killzones, Silver Bullet and Macro times on the chart. With the help of a new pane, it will not distract your chart and will not cause any distractions to your eye, or brain but you can see when will they happen.
The indicator also draws everything beforehand when a proper new day starts.
You can customize them how you want to show up.
Collapsed or full view?
You can hide any of them and keep only the ones you would like to.
All the colors can be customized, texts & sizes or just use shortened texts and you are also able to hide those drawings which are older than the actual day.
You should minimize the pane where the script has been automatically drawn to therefore you will have the best experience and not show any distractions.
The script automatically shows the time-based boxes, based on the New York timezone.
Killzone Time windows ( for indices ):
London KZ 02:00 - 05:00
New York AM KZ 07:00 - 10:00
New York PM KZ 13:30 - 16:00
Silver Bullet times:
03:00 - 04:00
10:00 - 11:00
14:00 - 15:00
Macro times:
02:33 - 03:00
04:03 - 04:30
08:50 - 0910
09:50 - 10:10
10:50 - 11:10
11:50 - 12:50
BTC ETF Premium IndicatorThe "BTC ETF Premium Indicator" (BEPI) is a sophisticated tool designed for investors and traders who seek to analyze the performance of Bitcoin ETFs relative to the actual market price of Bitcoin. This indicator provides a comprehensive visualization of the premium or discount at which each ETF is trading compared to its Net Asset Value (NAV).
Functionality:
ETF Selection: Users can toggle the visibility of individual ETFs to customize their view, focusing on the ETFs most relevant to their trading or analysis strategies.
Premium Computation: BEPI calculates the premium of each selected ETF by comparing its market share price to its NAV, expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates a premium, while a negative percentage suggests a discount.
Aggregate View: The indicator can plot an average premium based on the selection, providing a consolidated perspective of the overall market sentiment across the chosen ETFs.
Customizable Display: With the option to display only the average or individual ETF premiums, the BEPI offers flexibility in data presentation, ensuring that users can quickly glean the insights that matter most to them.
Visual Clarity: Premiums are visualized with color-coded columns, making it easy to distinguish between ETFs performing above or below their NAV. A zero baseline is included for reference, indicating no premium or discount.
Dynamic Labels: For real-time analysis, dynamic labels present the latest premium values for each ETF, ensuring users have up-to-date information at their fingertips.
Currently, BEPI supports Blackrock, ARK 21Shares, and Valkyrie ETFs, reflecting the most active segments of the market. As the landscape of Bitcoin ETFs evolves, there are plans to expand the indicator's capabilities to include a broader range of ETFs, enhancing its utility for a wider audience.
Whether you're looking for arbitrage opportunities, assessing ETF performance, or simply keeping an eye on the market, BEPI is the go-to indicator for a clear and concise overview of Bitcoin ETF premiums.
Machine Learning: Radius Neighbors Regressor[Pofatoezil] My native language is Chinese. The following introduction is translated using ChatGPT, and I hope the translation is fluent.
Introduction
This indicator is based on the machine learning model, Radius Neighbors Regressor, which predicts the target based on the similarity of past 500 input data. The provided indicator itself is merely a tool, requiring users to input features for comparison based on their preferences. In this indicator, you can utilize up to seven types of data for regression analysis and predict target values for up to three different time periods. It is essential for users to identify features suitable for their specific commodity on their own.
What is Radius Neighbor
The Radius Neighbors Regressor is a machine learning model used for regression tasks, specifically within the realm of supervised learning. It operates based on the principle of radius-based neighbor searches, where the algorithm predicts a target variable by considering the similarity of data points within a specified radius.
Unlike KNN, which considers a fixed number of nearest neighbors, Radius Neighbors Regressor allows for a flexible definition of neighborhoods by specifying a radius. This can be advantageous when dealing with varying densities in the dataset.
The radius-based approach may offer improved robustness in situations where the distribution of neighbors is not uniform or when dealing with outliers, as it considers all data points within the specified radius.
Parameter Settings and Output
Users need to import data(such as KD,RSI,ATR,CCI,MA,Volume....) from the TradingViewChart into the indicator first, and they can choose up to seven types. Then, they select the forecasting period and the regression target (such as Close, MA....). Afterward, set the maximum search radius, where the maximum value of the radius is the square root of N, where N is the number of features used. I recommend using 10% to 15% of the square root of N as the initial parameters.
Left Table
Neighbors: Indicates how many data points among the past 500 records are sufficiently close to the current data.
Ev: The target value predicted by the model.
WR: The probability of predicting a value greater than 0, noting that this is only meaningful for data values related to prices (Close, MA...).
Right Table
Distribution of predicted values for different periods. For example, 90% represents the predicted values at the 90th percentile among the past 500 data points. RK represents the real-time data ranking among past data, ranging from 0 to 100, where a higher number is more suitable for a long position, and vice versa for a short position.
example
I believe that this indicator has many suitable applications, but relying solely on it as a basis for trading decisions may pose risks. I'll leave it to you to explore.
DayChart
H1Chart
After Open Position
First, I observed on the DayChart that the indicator showed a neutral stance in the short, medium, and long term. Additionally, on the H1Chart, I noticed stronger bullish signals in the short, medium, and long-term data. Consequently, I decided to go long for an intraday position.
ARIMA Moving Average and Forecaster [SS]Finally releasing this. This took months, over 3 months to be precise, to figure out, code and troubleshoot! I honestly was going to give up on this project, but I finally got it to actually work fairly reliably. So hopefully you like it!
This is a very basic ARIMA modeler. It can do the following:
1. Provide you with an ARIMA based Moving Average;
2. Provide you with a standard error band;
3. Auto-select a lag length for assessment based on stationarity;
3. Provide you with the option of extending the error range by a user selected amount of standard deviations; and
4. Forecasting and plotting the forecast on the chart.
I will go over each function individually, but before I do, I think its important to talk a bit about what an ARIMA Model is and does:
ARIMA stands for AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average and is an approach to modeling and time series forecasting. In simple terms, it combines autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components to capture the underlying patterns in a time series data. The "AutoRegressive" part accounts for the relationship between an observation and its previous values, while the "Moving Average" part considers the relationship between an observation and a residual error from past observations. The "Integrated" component involves differencing the time series to make it stationary, which aids in stabilizing the model. ARIMA models help predict future values based on patterns observed in historical data, making them useful for forecasting in various fields such as economics, finance, and weather prediction.
The benefits to ARIMA is it will forecast based on the current trend, but it also provides for both the up and down scenario of the trend (i.e., if we are in a downtrend, what it would look like and what values we could expect if the trend reverses and vice versa). All of this is within the scope of this indicator, believe it or not!
If you would like more information on ARIMA, you can check out my educational post about it here:
Alrighty, now for the indicator functions.
ARIMA Moving Average and Standard Error Band
The ARIMA moving average is very simple, it takes the SMA of the current trend, lags it and plots out the lagged SMA. You can toggle the auto-select lag on, or you can pick your own lag manually. The above image is an auto-selected lag, but if we manually lag it by 5, this is what it looks like:
Its simply a lagged average of the 5 SMA (that is essentially how ARIMA works, by creating a moving average and lagging the moving average).
There are some implications to selecting a lag factor when it comes to forecasting, but I will cover this in the forecasting section. But I do want to make mention, you can use the ARIMA moving average in lieu of other moving averages. The advantage to doing this is it will be able to plot out the error bands. For example, if we wanted to get an ARIMA MA of the 200 SMA, we can toggle on the error bands and this is what we get:
Or the 50 MA:
NOTE: You ABSOLUTELY SHOULD NEVER use more than a lag of 4 or 5 for Forecasting (will be discussed later).
Auto-Select Lag
The indicator pulls the ARIMA modeler framework from my Forecasting library and pulls the stationarity assessment from my SPTS library. When you are doing an ARIMA model for forecasting, we need to ensure the data is stationary. Thus, if you want to forecast out the current trend, its highly recommended you select the "Auto Determine Lag Length" to find the most appropriate lag and forecast accordingly.
You can, however, chose your own lag order (model order), but this should never be above 4 or 5.
You should never select a lag of more than 5 because you are introducing too much "trendiness" into the equation, and you will get astronomical readings. ARIMA models never generally exceed a lag of 3 or 4 at most, as they are supposed be stationary and de-trended.
Extending by Standard Deviation
There is an option to select a standard deviation extension band. This is helpful for active day trading. Here is NIO extended by 2 standard deviations:
General suggestion is to only extend by 2 standard deviations and this is sufficient for most stocks.
Forecasting
The hallmark of an ARIMA model is the ability to use it for forecasting. Thus, the forecasting feature is a large portion of this indicator. You can see it displayed in the main chart above, but let's show some other examples:
NIO on the 1 hour:
TSLA on the 4 hour:
You can also display a forecasting table:
The result row shows the most likely, conservative, price at each time increment.
The Upper Confidence and Lower Confidence show what the trend would look like if it continued up or down at the current rate and the 95% confidence intervals show the values that the true source is likely to fall between at various increments in time with a 95% confidence (i.e. 95% probability that it should fall between these levels at period xyz assuming normal distribution).
The important levels, in my opinion, are the upper and lower confidence levels. These show you the current rate of decline or increase that the stock is expecting and what the trend would look like with a continuation or a reversal. This is ARIMA's biggest strength, as it has the ability to plot both outcomes assuming the current trend rate and time remains constant.
And that is the indicator! ARIMA is a bit of a complex process, but its a very powerful tool when used properly!
Troubleshooting:
One thing of note. Sometimes when autoselecting a length for forecasting, if there has been a heavy trend in one direction, you will not get the upper or lower confidence levels because of the lack of any up or down movement. In this case, manually select a lag of 3 to 5 to correct for this.
Let me know if you have any questions below and safe trades everyone!
MVRV Z-ScoreThe MVRV ratio was created by Murad Mahmudov & David Puell. It simply compares Market Cap to Realised Cap, presenting a ratio (MVRV = Market Cap / Realised Cap). The MVRV Z-Score is a later version, refining the metric by normalising the peaks and troughs of the data.
Forecast: PastFluxDelta PredictionThe theory is that time periods and the conditions during these periods repeat themselves. Especially if it is the same day of the week in the past, there is a high probability that price fluctuations will roughly repeat themselves.
Eternal return (or eternal recurrence) is a philosophical concept which states that time repeats itself in an infinite loop, and that exactly the same events will continue to occur in exactly the same way, over and over again, for eternity.
History does repeat itself.
The stock market is a manifest example.
Chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. Matt Maley pointed out the strong resemblance between the stock market recently and that in the past.
Various scientific studies and articles show that there could be something to this theory
Most of the investors are ignoring the parallels between stocks today and "heady" years 1929, 1999 and 2007…
Post Labor Day sees investors returning to the S&P 500 near all-time highs and some dark economic shadows lurking …
So how should we regard these inescapable results?
Nietzsche said we should embrace them, accept them, and love them. Once they stop, expect them to start again.
But remember that the future is fundamentally uncertain and that past results are by no means a guarantee of future performance.
Based on this, this indicator uses historical trading data from a year, a week or a day ago and compares price fluctuations in the past with current conditions.
"Bars to predict" can be used to indicate how far into the future the indicator is looking.
"Amount of bars to show" determines how many bars are generally displayed. A high value allows you to see how accurate the method was in the past.
Weighted Alpha with Zero line indicatorDescription:
This script introduces an Enhanced Weighted Alpha Indicator, designed for traders and analysts who seek a more nuanced view of market momentum and trend strength. The Weighted Alpha is a sophisticated measure that combines the concepts of price change and consistency of trend over a specified period. This version of the indicator is enhanced with a customizable lambda value, allowing users to fine-tune the sensitivity according to their trading strategy.
Key Features:
Weighted Alpha Calculation: The script calculates the Weighted Alpha based on the daily return of the asset, adjusted by a decay factor (lambda). This provides a smoothed, long-term view of the asset's momentum.
Customizable Lambda: Users can adjust the lambda value to modify the rate at which older data decreases in relevance. A higher lambda value gives more weight to recent data, making the indicator more sensitive to recent price movements.
Zero Line Indicator: A dotted red horizontal line at the 0 value on the y-axis serves as a quick visual reference. This line helps in identifying when the Weighted Alpha crosses from positive to negative or vice versa, indicating potential shifts in market momentum.
Separate Chart Pane: The Weighted Alpha is plotted on a separate pane below the main chart, providing a clear and uncluttered view.
Usage:
Trend Analysis: A positive Weighted Alpha indicates an upward trend, while a negative value suggests a downward trend. The magnitude of the Weighted Alpha gives an idea of the trend's strength.
Crossover Signals: Watch for the Weighted Alpha line crossing the zero line. Such crossovers can signal potential trend reversals.
Customization: Experiment with different lambda values to match the indicator's sensitivity with your trading style. A lower lambda smooths out the line more, while a higher lambda makes it more responsive to recent price changes.
Conclusion:
This Enhanced Weighted Alpha Indicator is a powerful tool for traders looking to analyze and anticipate market trends with greater precision. Its customization options and clear visual representation make it a valuable addition to any trader's toolkit.
SandTigerSandTiger is an auto-counting tool that counts naturally occurring events in a price series. This version has been reduced to 377 lines of code and should run faster than previous versions. Although not shown here, I highly recommend running my 'ELB' script with SandTiger. ELB is an 'event locator' and will mark all points that SandTiger numbers - giving you visual cues as to where these points are located. ELB also displays support/resistance levels.
SandTiger is designed to be used with MAGENTA - a counting system for Forex and other markets.
MAGENTA is a free and open framework for understanding and explaining price movement in financial markets. Any materials associated with MAGENTA are strictly for educational purposes only.
SandTiger tracks Component Values, Dyads, and Sum Table Values (STV's) over straight and curved trends, allowing a trader to discern where directional shifts are likely to occur.
SandTiger requires just 3 things to function accurately:
1) A correct starting point (this will typically be an obvious trend turn high or low in a series of price moves).
2) A 'push 1' count ('push 1' runs from the starting point to the event prior to the first terminal of the first FCT or Fractured Counter-Trend).
3) A 'high prime' value (the high prime count runs from the starting point through to the second terminal of the first FCT with no skips).
FRAMEWORK OVERVIEW: 'Component' values are filtered from the prime set (including the half prime and further reductions). Once we have the comp table we add the values to get a 'total'. With the 'total' we divide and multiply by two to get two additional values. 'Derivatives' are based on various calculations using these three values.
We're looking for 'total/2' to count into either itself, 'total', 'total*2', or a derivative. Comp counts are in Tx form and counted from trend start. If the trend doesn't turn on a comp value it will likely turn on a Dyad or STV value. If that also doesn't happen it's likely you have a 'curved' trend/sequence that will turn on one of the above after moving away from its high/low. This can also be traded using SandTiger's 'Seg Terminals' skip option.
Sum tables and Dyad values are drawn from the 'primes' and Dyads use the 'push1' value as well. In a structural trend, primes are gotten by counting pushpulls 1 & 2 in 'Ti' form. Comps, Sum table values, and Dyads are equivalent, sequences can turn on either value type belonging to the 1st or 2nd prime set. Both STV's and Dyads are counted in 'Tx' form (except where count-through signals occur).
Types and antitypes correlate and are associated with a 12-count 'cycle.' (Ti = 'Terminals Included'; Tx = 'Terminals eXcluded'; both refer to FCT terminals)
THE STRATEGY:
For Structures: Trade Comps, Dyads, and STV's from sets 1 (all) and 2 (Dyads and STV's only) in the 'main' segment then on the 'carry-over' by skipping segment terminals. If a PC or cycle caps the sequence, trade that as well.
For NSM's: Trade movements that flash a signal prior to the end of the initial cycle. The mark will be the push1 value. Twelve will be the 'high prime.' Skip interrupts and trade carry-over values.
The first version of SandTiger was conceived/planned/authored by Erek A.D. and coded by Erek A.D. and @SimpleCryptoLife beginning in August 2022 and finishing in Dec. 2022
The current version was written and developed July 3, 2023 and has been refined and upgraded by Erek A.D. through Jan. 2024...
Whalemap [BigBeluga]The Whalemap indicator aims to spot big buying and selling activity represented as big orders for a possible bottom or top formation on the chart.
🔶 CALCULATION
The indicator uses volume to spot big volume activity represented as big orders in the market.
for i = 0 to len - 1
blV.vol += (close > close ? volume : 0)
brV.vol += (close < close ? volume : 0)
When volume exceeds its own threshold, it is a sign that volume is exceeding its normal value and is considered as a "Whale order" or "Whale activity," which is then plotted on the chart as circles.
🔶 DETAILS
The indicator plots Bubbles on the chart with different sizes indicating the buying or selling activity. The bigger the circle, the more impact it will have on the market.
On each circle is also plotted a line, and its own weight is also determined by the strength of its own circle; the bigger the circle, the bigger the line.
Old buying/selling activity can also be used for future support and resistance to spot interesting areas.
The more price enters old buying/selling activity and starts producing orders of the same direction, it might be an interesting point to take a closer look.
🔶 EXAMPLES
The chart above is showing us price reacting to big orders, finding good bottoms in price and good tops in confluence with old activity.
🔶 SETTINGS
Users will have the options to:
Filter options to adjust buying and selling sensitivity.
Display/Hide Lines
Display/Hide Bubbles
Choose which orders to display (from smallest to biggest)
Bias DailyThis indicator shows in a different way how to evaluate the BIAS Daily.
Evaluate yesterday's closed candle and that of the day before yesterday
The conditions are:
LONG BIAS =
Candle closed above High Candle [2 ]
- In this condition a long continuation can be considered
SHORT BIAS =
The candle closed below the low candle [2 ]
- In this condition a short continuation can be considered
IN THE RANGE =
The candle did not close below or above the Low and High candle
- In this condition it is better not to risk it
The user has the possibility to:
- Choose to show high or low BIAS levels
- Shows the Table in which the BIAS D is marked
The indicator should be used as TTrades shows in its videos, it can also be implemented in ICT strategies.
The indicator takes into consideration the last 2 candles already closed, so on the candle that is forming you can expect reactions in the Pd Array of the Candle Range , below I show examples of how to use it in Multitimeframe
BIAS LONG =
BIAS SHORT =
Fibonacci Timing Pattern IIThe Fibonacci Timing Pattern II is a price-based counter that seeks to determine medium-term reversals in price action. It is based on the following set of conditions:
* For a bullish Fibonacci timing signal II: The current close must be lower than the close prices from one and two periods ago. Simultaneously, the close price from two periods ago must be lower than the close price from three periods ago, and the close price from three periods ago must be lower than the close price from five periods ago. The Fibonacci sequence continues until the close price from thirty four periods ago which must be above the close price from fifty five periods ago.
* For a bearish Fibonacci timing signal II: The current close must be higher than the close prices from one and two periods ago. Simultaneously, the close price from two periods ago must be higher than the close price from three periods ago, and the close price from three periods ago must be higher than the close price from five periods ago. The Fibonacci sequence continues until the close price from thirty four periods ago which must be lower the close price from fifty five periods ago.
The signals of the pattern are ideally used in a sideways market or used in tandem with the trend (bullish signals are taken in a bullish market and bearish signals are taken in a bearish market).
Z-Score Forecaster[SS]Hello everyone,
I just released a neat library for Forecasting stock and equities. In it, it has a couple of novel approaches to forecasting (namely, a Moving Average forecaster and a Z-Score Forecaster). These were accomplished applying basic theories on Autoregression, ARIMA modelling and Z-Score to make new approaches to forecasting.
This is one of the novel approaches, the Z-Score forecaster.
How this function works is it identifies the current trend over the duration of the Z-Score assessment period. So, if the Z-Score is being assessed over the previous 75 candles, it will identify the trend over the previous 75 candles. It will then plot out the forecasted levels according to the trend, up to a maximum of the max Z-Score the ticker has reached within its period. At that point, it will show a likely trend reversal.
Here is an example:
This shows that SPY may go to 475.42 before reversing, as 475.42 is the highest z-score that has been achieved in the current trend.
When it is in an uptrend, the forecast line will be green, when in a downtrend, it will be red.
The forecasting line is accomplished through pinescript's new polyline feature.
In addition to the line, you can also have the indicator plot out a forecast table. The Z-Score Forecast table was formatted in a similar way to ARIMA, where it makes no bias about trend, it simply plots out both ends of the spectrum. So, if an uptrend were to continue, it will list the various uptrend targets along the way, vice versa for downtrends.
It will also display what Z-Score these targets would amount to. Here is an example:
Looking at SPY on the daily, we can see that a likely upside target would be around 484 at just over 2 Standard Deviations (Z-Score).
Its not liklely to go higher than that because then we are getting into 3 and 4 standard deviations.
Remember, everything generally should be within 1 and -1 standard deviations of the mean. So if we look at the table, we can see that would be between 466 and 430.
Customization
You can customize the Z-Score length and source. You can also toggle off and on alerts. The alerts will pop up when a ticker is trading at a previous maximum or previous minimum.
I have also added a manual feature to plot the Z-Score SMA, which is simply the SMA over the desired Z-Score lookback time.
And that's the indicator!
If you are interested in the library, you can access it here .
Thanks for checking this out and leave your questions below!
VWAP, MFI, RSI with S/R StrategyBest for 0dte/intraday trading on AMEX:SPY with 1 minute chart
Strategy Concept
This strategy aims to identify potential reversal points in a price trend by combining momentum indicators (RSI and MFI), volume-weighted price (VWAP), and recent price action trends. It looks for conditions where the price is poised to change direction, either bouncing off a support level in a potential uptrend or falling from a resistance level in a potential downtrend.
By incorporating both price level analysis (support/resistance) and momentum indicators, the strategy seeks to increase the likelihood of identifying significant trend reversals, taking into consideration both recent price movements and the current price's position relative to historical highs and lows.
VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price)
VWAP acts as a benchmark to determine the general market trend. It's an average price weighted by volume.
A price above VWAP is often considered bullish, and a price below VWAP is seen as bearish.
MFI (Money Flow Index) and RSI (Relative Strength Index) Parameters
MFI is a volume-weighted RSI, used to identify overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) conditions.
RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to identify overbought or oversold conditions, similar to MFI.
The script uses standard overbought (70) and oversold (30) thresholds for both MFI and RSI.
Trend Check Function
The function trendCheck analyzes the past pastBars candles to count how many were bullish (closing price higher than the opening price) and bearish.
This function is used to assess the recent trend direction.
Support and Resistance Detection
The script calculates the highest high (highestHigh) and lowest low (lowestLow) over the last lookbackSR (50) periods to identify potential support and resistance levels.
isNearSupport and isNearResistance are conditions to check if the current price is within 0.08% of these identified levels, indicating proximity to support or resistance.
Buy and Sell Logic
Buy Signal:
The RSI crosses over the oversold threshold (30).
The MFI is also below its oversold level (30).
The current price is above the VWAP.
The recent trend (past 20 bars) has been predominantly bearish.
The price is near the identified support level.
Sell Signal:
The RSI crosses under the overbought threshold (70).
The MFI is above its overbought level (70).
The current price is below the VWAP.
The recent trend has been predominantly bullish.
The price is near the identified resistance level.
