Improved Version : How Do "Whales" Trade ?

10 дек. 2019 г.

CAUTION : EXPERIMENTAL

Hello friends.
Whale trading system has been developed and placed on a more reasonable ground.
So this publication is an improved version of the educational idea : How do "Whales" Trade?

Before Starting
In related ideas, you can see the first version and the script I used to create this idea.
And there is an intermediate version that shows the logic after separating the bull - bear zones.

RULES

First of all, there is absolutely no short position to reduce the risk of this system.
Negative regions are sales regions. (Not short position)
Position sizes are shown in the presentation.We split our capital 100 . (Or you can accept your entire position size 100.)
We certainly don't try with all our capital.
It can be tested with reasonable capital allocated for instruments.
At each change of region, we dispose or purchase all of our position size.
And the values in the presentation are our graded position amounts .
Now that we've benefited from regional changes, I found 10 levels reasonable.
Let's write our position sizes here too :

STAKES

Pos Size 1 : % 0.4329
Pos Size 2 : % 0.8658
Pos Size 3 : % 1.2987
Pos Size 4 : % 2.1645
Pos Size 5 : % 3.4632
Pos Size 6 : % 5.6277
Pos Size 7 : % 9.1
Pos Size 8 : % 14.719
Pos Size 9 : % 23.81
Pos Size 10 :% 38.52

Note : Position size ratios are formed by coefficients based on gold ratio to provide a logical example.

Let us now examine the region from January 22, 2018 to August 26, 2019.
I'm doing trade and distributional trades for 1 bar after eye decision and signals to be fair.

TRADES AND TRICKS

After the sell order arrives on January 22, we wait until distributional buying points arrive.
First distributional Buy Signal was on 7 May 2018 (close ) , so it means : Our first Distributional Buy was between 7 - 14 May 2018.
Let's start :

Distributional Buys :

1.Buy : 8572.5 Position Size : %0.4329
2.Buy : 7847 Position Size : %0.8658
3.Buy : 7456.5 Position Size : %1.2987
4.Buy : 6563.5 Position Size : %2.1645
5.Buy : 6786.5 ==> Rejected , because price is higher than last Buy.
5.Buy : 6507.5 Position Size : % 3.4632
6.Buy : 6396 Position Size : % 5.6277
7.Buy : 5837.5 Position Size : %9.1
8.Buy : 3940 Position Size : %14.719
9.Buy : NET Long Signal : 3493.5 Position Size : The Rest ==> (100 - All) = %62.328

Distributional Sells

1.Sell : 10919 Position Size : %0.4329 (May be higher than the amount of earnings. For example : % 25
Here we are improvising according to obligatory market conditions.
I wrote the first rate in order to follow the example rule, but I would sell between 25% and 40% in live trade.
Because the profit is too high.)

2.Sell : 10146 Position Size : %0.8658 ( Normally I shouldn't have sold it because it was lower than the first sale.
But the profit is still very high, but it is decreasing, so I sell.
A much higher quantity can be sold here, as is the same on the top.
I'm writing the next rate to keep the rule.)

3. Sell : 11376 Position Size : % 60 ( Now profitability is at its peak , I ignore the stake rules and going to improvise.
Instead, the first 3 - distributional sales: 10% - 20% - 40% with values such as making it much more reasonable.)


4.Sell : NET Sell Signal : 9970.5 Position Size : The Rest ==> (100 - All) = %38.8

Note : I could have gone a lot more profitable than my earnings, but to avoid stretching the template, I applied the first 2 ratios.
A professional could have been more profitable here: Example: 40 - 60 and close.
So I'm going to calculate these rates.

CALCULATIONS ( For 100 unit = Full Position Size )

Average Cost : (8572.5 * 0.4329 + 7847 * 0.8658 + 7456.5 * 1.2987 + 6563.5 * 2.1645 + 6507.5 * 3.4632 + 6396 * 5.6277 + 5837.5 * 9.1 + 3940 * 14.719 + 3493.5 * 62.238) / 100 = (3711.04 + 6793.93 + 9683.76 + 14206.7 + 22536.8 + 35994.77 + 53121.25 + 57992.9 + 217428.5 ) / 100
Average Cost = 4215

Average Sell : (10919 * 0.4329 + 10146 * 0.8658 + 11376 * 60 + 9970.5 * 38.8 ) / 100 = (4726.84 + 8784.41 + 682560 + 386855.4) / 100
Average Sell Price = 10829.27

SUMMARY

Percentage of net earnings per unit (Full Position Size): ((10829.27 - 4215 ) / 4215) * 100 = %156.92

In doing so, commercials provided liquidity to the markets and did not have the problem of not finding buyers.
Stoploss here means emptying the whole position, for me 4 bars means stoploss in all directions.
More importantly, increasing rates will not harm us in non-trend areas.
Because we start with low rates.

Although comments and improvisation are very important, I tried to explain the system outlines by linking them to certain rules.

Now we have gone more systematically than the first version !