A seasonal recurring event for UJ is for the USD to drop substantially against the JPY and this year I expected it to happen in April. GBP has outperformed USD for the passed 6 years and USD was slowly losing strength from January onwards this year. I predicted that March would be the start of the UJ drop because it is also financial year end for BOJ and demand for JPY increases as corporations exchange their incoming receivables for Japanese Yen.
Today the UJ seasonality has started. As you can see on the chart it will most likely fall over the course of a few weeks to a few months. On the chart it ends on December 17. The timing might be different this year as for every season there are new variables and values. This year we had the raging bull from mid April onwards which has tremendously delayed the process. It would not surprise me if the bull shows up again to disturb this process.
This analysis is focussed on the time it takes for USD to reverse as marked with time ranges for each season on this chart. Normally a reversal of the USD takes around 12 weeks from last steep incline to first steep drop after that to complete. This year I expect a delay of at least 2 weeks for the reversal, which was estimated with a delay factor derived from the time it took to reach halfway the reversal.