Market review for September 13, 2019

13 сент. 2019 г.

#SP500

Yesterday, on Thursday, the US stock market was not very uptreated and most of the shares closed at a small profit for the day. Although the Nasdaq exchange volume direction was in the positive zone, it didn’t receive the vector direction. Taking into account the fact that this indicator has been in the positive zone for several days, today we should expect some downward correction. At the opening of the US stock market, it will be possible to observe this indicator for making a trading decision.

The German index today shows positive growth dynamics, which also helps in the growth of the SP500, as well as the opening of European stock markets gave a surge of volatility and an impetus for a number of indices.

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The moods in the futures market of the first three of the DowJones 30, SP500, NASDAQ 100 stock indices are in several conflicting direction vectors. The DowJones index yesterday strangely led at the opening of the market. The cumulative delta of this instrument had large jumps and then moved towards the fall. However, the SP500 and NASDAQ 100 have a positive trend.

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My opinion is that the DowJones are more responsive to the negative PMI and NMI report from ISM, and the SP500 and NASDAQ 100 are more focused on economic growth by stepping down the interest rate in the United States. Which, according to more than 88% of the participants, will be lowered at a meeting on September 18, 2019 from the current 2.25% to 2%

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This is also confirmed by the calculated formula for the interest rate, which today shows a value of 1.88% and is just in the range of 2% - 1.75%

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Based on reports from ISM, a decrease in the indicator below 50 and their dynamics, as well as correlation with the annual growth rate of US GDP, we can assume a drop in GDP and an unpleasant situation for the stock market as a whole. The only positive factor that still keeps the US afloat is the interest rate cut.

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The optimal areas for purchases will be the areas of daily (2997) and weekly (2972) volatility, and do not forget that indices tend to go in the same direction without corrections and when breaking through the local HIGH (3020), you can also buy SP500. At the same time, do not forget to compare your actions with the Nasdaq exchange volume direction data to get an objective assessment of the situation.