#Overview: S&P 500 #SPX

13 мая 2020 г.

Now
The S&P500 formed a double top (the first peak was formed on April 29). The middle level of the range (2879) was passed without a rebound and the price went down to 2818 as I expected. Buy when the resistance zone of 2947-2972 is destroyed. Relationship between the USA and China became worse, the economic situation is a kind of disaster and the consequences of the quarantine has a strong impact and so I expect continuation of moving S&P500 to the South.

Daily chart
Daily candle closes below 2856 = a signal for the next stops at 2730 and 2630. The price can quickly return to 2280 with a negative background, so this is a magnet, upon reaching which the market could try to rebound on the expectations of a double bottom and a W-shaped recovery.

Monthly chart
S&P500 dropped to the level of the 30-year moving average sma-360 (the lowest point was 667) in the crisis years of 2007-2009. Now we've got perfect conditions to repeat that touchdown. For the current month, the value of sma-300 (25-year-old moving) confluent with the key support of 1500, and sma-360 (30-year-old moving) is at 1300. Thus, magnet = zone 1500. Nearest supports = 2507 and 2120. The nearest resistance which hasn't been broken recently = 2873 and this is the level of the fast moving average sma-25, which confluent with the extremum of January 2018.

Summary
The downtrend is on its way. Shorts are in priority. Keep cash in your pocket (more than 60% of the portfolio). Positive recovery is possible after the price breaks through the resistance zone of 2972 and closes the day above it at least.

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