RBNZ 25bp Rate Cut Coming !!

12 нояб. 2019 г.

NZD with busy overnight sessions as NZD inflation expectations come under further pressure. RBNZ look set to cut 25bp tonight but the market is heavily loaded on the sell-side.

I only see NZDUSD going further down if we get a dovish cut tonight and in my books the RBNZ are not going to commit themselves to any further easing at this stage with the next window for cuts not until February.

Here I am expecting a ‘wait and see’ approach and therefore tactically getting long as we go into tonights event. I will be adding on any dips we see on the headline cut, while remaining nimble that a very dovish RBNZ may warrant reassessment.

G10 FX has been craving a new theme and markets are starting to embrace the reflationary price driver. I am positioning accordingly and see potential for further upside in NZD and AUD in particular.

For the flows a very simple and clean map today; looking to add bullish exposure at the important 0.632x support with initial targets in the short-term swing located at 0.641x. While to the downside reassessment is necessary below 0.628x.

AUD will move as collateral today with NZD in the driving seat....

I have an important round of chart updates coming over the next few sessions, jump into the comments with your views on NZD and today's RBNZ decision.

All the best and good luck to those trading the event live.

13 нояб. 2019 г.

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RBNZ never fail to surprise...

18 нояб. 2019 г.

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For those tracking NZD since the RBNZ ...