🔥 NASDAQ Following 2008 Crisis Fractal: Bad Omen?

18 апр. 2022 г.

Before we dive deeper into the analysis I want to state clearly what I always state in fractals: no one can predict the future and price patterns/fractals are valid until they aren't, take them with a grain of salt. However, try to keep an open mind.

In today's analysis I want to take a quick look at the NASDAQ, which is the main technology index for the US stock markets. I found that the current pattern very closely resembles the fractal from back in 2008, right before the main crash and meltdown of the stock markets.

Main differences are the heights of the tops/bottoms in relation to each other, there's some small differences in height here and there, but fractals are never 1-to-1 perfect. Second main difference is the speed at which the pattern plays out. In 2008 the it took the market 213 days to get from step 1 to step 6. In 2022 it took just 90 days.

If the market will continue to follow this bearish fractal we can expect another bullish push towards the yellow box on the chart. From this box, the price will reverse sharply and make a new macro lower-low, resulting in a crash. Naturally, this fractal will be invalidated if we either make a new high above 5-6 or if we fall further below 4.

The future will tell whether we're going to see more downside in the near future. However, the markets are not signaling much (macro) bullishness at the moment, so I won't rule a crash out in the coming months.