Dow Jones Industrial Average: To 36000 Epic Milestone and Beyond
Обновлено
Dow 36,000: A New Strategy to Profit from Coming Stock Market Growth is a book published on October 1, 1999 by columnist James C. Glassman and economist Kevin A. Hassett in which they argued that stocks were significantly undervalued in 1999 and came to the conclusion that the market will grow 4 times, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 
DJI will rise to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004.
The most important fact about stocks at the dawn of the twenty-first century: they are cheap...
- Glassman and Hasset. 1999. "Introduction". Dow 36000
However, life has made its own adjustments, and the era of "irrational optimism" (as it always happens) - came to its inevitable end.
In January 2000, just about three months later the publication of the book, the Dow Jones Index reached a record high of 11,750.28 points, which subsequently remained unbeaten for the next 6 plus years.
In the early 2000s, the Index fell steadily after the dot-com technology bubble burst.
And after the well-known bang on the American Twin Towers happened on September 11, 2001, the Dow Jones index fell even more, reaching a minimum of 7286.27 points by October 2002.
Financial crisis of 2007-09 sent the Dow Jones to even lower levels, which ultimately freed the hands of Congress and the US Treasury to uncover the money bazooka through raising national debt limits.
In general, only after the second attempt to fix above DJIA 10-year moving average in the third quarter of 2011, the Dow was able to rise in a half of the predicted path (from about 10,000 to 36,000 points).
Just 18 years later to the publication, in October 2017, - Dow reached milestone of 23,000 points, and the final achievement of the desired mark of 36,000 points took place only in December 2021.
However, by that time just few people remembered this book and its authors, who were later called "charlatans". Given that over the 22-year period since the publication of the book, consumer spending in the US (
PCE ) has increased by more than 2.5 times overall; the prices of gasoline, oil, wheat, corn, and sugar have more than tripled, and the prices of metals such as copper and gold have risen 5 to 7 times.
Closer to today's reality, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to follow the main uptrend trajectory formed by the US recovery from the 2007-09 Housing crisis. Dow stays for nowadays above its 10-year simple moving average that supported the index both in the third quarter of 2011 and at the time of Covid- 19 market collapse in the first quarter of 2020. At the moment Dow is being above the marked moving average by about 36.45%.
Technical resistance is considered as a range of 34,000 - 34,500 points, that lost in the first quarter of 2022. Attempts to return above this strong level have been overshadowed for several months - either by a banking collapse, and later by aggravated talk about the crisis of the US national debt ceiling.
In such scenarios, coupled with inflation, which remains significantly above the target level of 2 percent, despite repeated attempts to curb it by the Federal Reserve , the 36,000th milestone can for quite a long time, for a decade or even a year and a half, become a growth constraint of the world economy for quite a long time - for a decade or even fifteen years.
Key facts about the Dow Jones Industrial Average:
👉 Technical chart provided by ETF
DIA - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, generally in line with the price and yield of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (100:1 ratio).
👉 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI ) is made up of 30 price-weighted blue-chip components of US stocks.
👉 DJIA is the oldest barometer of the US stock market, the flag and the logo of capitalism, and the most widely quoted indicator of the activity of the US stock market and world economy.
DJI will rise to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004.The most important fact about stocks at the dawn of the twenty-first century: they are cheap...
- Glassman and Hasset. 1999. "Introduction". Dow 36000
However, life has made its own adjustments, and the era of "irrational optimism" (as it always happens) - came to its inevitable end.
In January 2000, just about three months later the publication of the book, the Dow Jones Index reached a record high of 11,750.28 points, which subsequently remained unbeaten for the next 6 plus years.
In the early 2000s, the Index fell steadily after the dot-com technology bubble burst.
And after the well-known bang on the American Twin Towers happened on September 11, 2001, the Dow Jones index fell even more, reaching a minimum of 7286.27 points by October 2002.
Financial crisis of 2007-09 sent the Dow Jones to even lower levels, which ultimately freed the hands of Congress and the US Treasury to uncover the money bazooka through raising national debt limits.
In general, only after the second attempt to fix above DJIA 10-year moving average in the third quarter of 2011, the Dow was able to rise in a half of the predicted path (from about 10,000 to 36,000 points).
Just 18 years later to the publication, in October 2017, - Dow reached milestone of 23,000 points, and the final achievement of the desired mark of 36,000 points took place only in December 2021.
However, by that time just few people remembered this book and its authors, who were later called "charlatans". Given that over the 22-year period since the publication of the book, consumer spending in the US (
PCE ) has increased by more than 2.5 times overall; the prices of gasoline, oil, wheat, corn, and sugar have more than tripled, and the prices of metals such as copper and gold have risen 5 to 7 times.Closer to today's reality, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to follow the main uptrend trajectory formed by the US recovery from the 2007-09 Housing crisis. Dow stays for nowadays above its 10-year simple moving average that supported the index both in the third quarter of 2011 and at the time of Covid- 19 market collapse in the first quarter of 2020. At the moment Dow is being above the marked moving average by about 36.45%.
Technical resistance is considered as a range of 34,000 - 34,500 points, that lost in the first quarter of 2022. Attempts to return above this strong level have been overshadowed for several months - either by a banking collapse, and later by aggravated talk about the crisis of the US national debt ceiling.
In such scenarios, coupled with inflation, which remains significantly above the target level of 2 percent, despite repeated attempts to curb it by the Federal Reserve , the 36,000th milestone can for quite a long time, for a decade or even a year and a half, become a growth constraint of the world economy for quite a long time - for a decade or even fifteen years.
Key facts about the Dow Jones Industrial Average:
👉 Technical chart provided by ETF
DIA - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, generally in line with the price and yield of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (100:1 ratio).👉 Dow Jones Industrial Average (
DJI ) is made up of 30 price-weighted blue-chip components of US stocks.👉 DJIA is the oldest barometer of the US stock market, the flag and the logo of capitalism, and the most widely quoted indicator of the activity of the US stock market and world economy.
Сделка активна
June 26, 2023June 2023 is near the end. As well as the second quarter and the first half of 2023.
The Dow Jones Index, devoid of any of the AI components that have made a lot of noise recently, remains the weakest chain link over the Top 4 U.S. stock market indices (NDX, SPX, RUT and DJI).
The gain in DJI since the beginning of 2023 is less than 2 percent. That is a very, very modest figure, both relative to 4 percent inflation in the United States and relative to the US Federal Reserve risk-free 5.25% rate.
3rd quarter ahead. As well as new opportunities!
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