BTC/USD Local trend 11/19/2023

19 нояб. 2023 г.

Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. Rising channel. The chart shows key support/resistance levels for working in a local trend.

Code zone 273 or synchronization specifically with the price of $27,300—this is the main key break zone of the downward trend. We are now in the zone of the previous distribution of the 2020-2021 cycle.

Scale for understanding.

4 дек. 2023 г.

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+14.6% from the reversal zone (average price of the “shaking out” zone. Breakout impulse 40582.81 (gematria). Holding and consolidating in this zone is very important, especially when rolling back to display on the daily time frame later.

4 дек. 2023 г.

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8 дек. 2023 г.

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+21.20 % local consolidation at the intersection of the dynamic resistance zone of the internal channel and the level 44018.31. Local resolution coming soon. Time frame 4 hours

8 дек. 2023 г.

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11 дек. 2023 г.

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very localized. Potential reversal zone.
Failure to consolidate above the level of 44018.31 (little short stop loss).
The price declined to test the local monthly uptrend.


From this price zone the price can go in any direction, it should be understood with a 50/50 probability depending on where there will be more liquidity stop Loss.


1️⃣ An important local date is the 13th, the so-called black moon, the last of the year.

2️⃣ Then the 15th FTX hearing (announcement of refund dates, they will say how favorable it will be for the market).

20 дек. 2023 г.

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Small time frame 4 hours. About +8.1% from the reversal zone 40582.81 to the "level" 44018.31 again. Schematic marker showed the logic of the local price movement of the digitalization brand.

The resistance zone of 44,000 is the key resistance of reversal to 36-28-26 or pre-New Year's "pump" in case of consolidation above it.

20 дек. 2023 г.

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22 дек. 2023 г.

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Time frame 1 day. Until January 15 (the key date mentioned earlier) there will again be pumping of info space and opinion on the acceptance / non-acceptance of the spot ETF by the US Securities Commission (SEC). Hence, the next round of "hunger games" will be opened after the New Year on January 5-6.

On bitcoin, under the resistance zone of 44,700 (key and symbolic) an ascending (bullish) triangle is forming at the moment. It is worth noting that above this resistance accumulates a huge liquidity from stop-loss shorts, which can serve as "fuel" for the impulse (breakout of it). This triangle is forming near the resistance of the large ascending channel (percentages shown). Local percentages taking into account this formation and key support/resistance levels are shown.


Altcoins and the $44,700 breakout.

If this liquidity is removed and the 17% triangle works its way up (even with a false breakout to channel resistance) - ALTCOINS EXPLODE in the moment and "overtake the market". Especially the low and medium liquid ones (which are swinging even now, when bitcoin is in the zone of doubt and uncertainty).

Liquid, large capitalization, HYIP (crowd is planted) — of course not now (i.e. price rise or fall only according to the market trend no more and no less).



Triangle break down through a false breakdown or without it..
The first stop zone 38 -36 thousand to the bullish meridian (will be relevant later), which is the middle of the ascending channel.



Not now (but worth reminding). Money and risk management..

Maximum reduction at the moment of capitulation for long liquidation, as well as by the way shorting of futures and margin positions when reversing by a large % (“needle takeout”), before the transition to the participation phase (price movement of 2024 targets to 2025 distribution zones) and a significant correction in the trend (does not break it) is a dynamic support of this huge ascending channel, which is the zone 28-26 and even 24 depending on the time of realization (the channel is ascending). When trading, earning, remember about this logical probability and set aside at least 30% of the profit in stablecoins. This happens when it is not expected (efficiency).



Futures and the penalty for greed.

Be careful with futures, so that the growth of the numbers drawn by the exchange on the screen of the futures account does not put your vigilance to sleep. Observe risk management. Always withdraw part of your profits to margin with reduced risk or to spot. When cashing out, don't be greedy. Otherwise, you simply burn time (money from you at zero will be taken away in the moment).


In cross and isolated margin, always keep the risk low. In moments of “market panic” this indicator will change to high. Medium risk to liquidation). Have stablecoins to refill collateral at the “peak” of fear.

Another option is knocked out stops (of all positions or part of them) as a body of collateral. Remember that in sharp movements, stops may fail or partially fail due to price slippage (make a large stock pitch, especially on low liquid cryptocurrencies).


It is worth noting that hedging by opening a short position may not work due to the speed of market movement at such times. This is done by a “manipulator” at a time when few people expect it, i.e. on the positive side. If you have time to open a hedge — great. If not — all of the above.

2 янв.

Заметка

breakthrough of long consolidation resistance zone 44 700

2 янв.

Заметка

9 янв.

Заметка

Looking ahead to Jan. 10 (while FUD is about ETF adoption) exit from the 40582-44700 price squeeze rectangle to the 47122 level.

27 янв.

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27 01 2024

price at the dynamic meridian of the ascending channel (green dotted) there may be a local upward reversal. The chart shows the key reversal zones of this channel.

Let me remind you that in February the trial on CZ binance (2nd hearing in the US) for money laundering (he admitted it, the entire ledger of this exchange in the possession of the US authorities) by "Binance exchange". Look at the chart, as it was last time in summer (local movement, before the trial local lows, then payment of several billion dollars fine and momentum of BTC price rise).

A few days ago the person in question was not released from the US. In all likelihood closer to the trial there will be a FUD developing about this under the chart. Then again they will pay huge multi-billion dollar fines (cash cow and leverage tool).

8 февр.

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08 02 2024

Local trading situation. +7% The price has reached the resistance level of 44700, now there is an attempt to break through it and consolidate it.

8 февр.

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12 февр.

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the second local target (resistance of the internal channel) +16.16% (48969.48$) has been reached. There is a breakout of this zone, the price is almost $50,000. Now media PR will be launched. There is a high probability of reaching the resistance zone of the outer channel.

12 февр.

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19 февр.

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+29,15%

Well, bitcoin as in the survey reached the zone of 51-53 thousand $, which is the resistance zone of the ascending channel.

In this zone now in the moment liquid exchanges together make the price squeeze in the top narrow range of 1.6-1.8%.

The logic of price movement from this zone is shown on the chart. They are waiting for stop-losses to accumulate (fuel for price impulses).

The bitcoin price squeeze zone or consolidation under key resistance levels in a not very wide range is a paradise for altcoins. Isn't it? Are you noticing it? Or, have you bought altcoins that "aren't growing" (that bloggers have been broadcasting, hypey before, planted)?

Or maybe you're waiting for the hamster x's of the market allocation zone at the wrong time, and for your greed, alt season has been over 4 months away? I guess similar market participants will be entering the market when they should be exiting it....

19 февр.

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28 февр.

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28 02 2024

60800 (from yesterday's poll of 7.04%) or exactly 27.29% the percentage previously shown.

28 февр.

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+50.33% from reversal 40852.81

28 февр.

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for today impulse on the most liquid market instrument +12,68% into the zone of price slippage (19 11 2023 3,5 months ago and the line is marked with the corresponding color and zone) above the resistance of the channel, also this crossing is the resistance of the expanding huge pump triangle BTC. +57,95%.

Some alts have momentum, some have gloriously removed stops. Is this a boon or a surprisingly vague panic? February closed out nicely? 1 more day.

Note this +17.6% marked Feb 19, 2024 in the update (white percentage). Are there many exact coincidences ? Or are there no coincidences Mr. Traders??).

3 мар.

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globally on the monthly time frame looks like this. The resistance zone now and a little higher is the resistance of a potential ascending triangle (if there is a correction from these zones within 2-3 months). About half a year ago, I showed the potential of its formation. This will not break the bullish trend, but rather strengthen it, as it will cool down the "hot marginal heads". Remember, this couple of months is the last temporary zone of conditional uncertainty, then a full-fledged phase of participation of the bullish trend to the distribution zone of 2025.

Tactically, the previous highs in BTC price are desirable for market manipulators to break through, a great news backdrop will do that. Accumulate profits from alts, for buyback on a significant unanticipated conditionally correction.

Remember, bitcoin halving in 46 days. As I said earlier, 1 month before and 1 month after this is the “hot time”.

3 мар.

Заметка

Locally after a "terrible day of short" - price squeeze zone. 4 hours

Crypto media is publishing various positive posts, news, memes.... For example, from the exchange Binance "a movie room watching bitcoin's bullish triangle run upwards" Yes, it's all a movie...

16 мар.

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Second local target of 72,000 reached +12.71% Binance showed naturally accidental highs of 73,777. Now #rebound from the resistance of the ascending channel of this local trend. The price has now declined to its meridian. Most alts locally have also started to pullback, especially those on excessive profits. The logic of the reversal zones is shown by arrows.


If the three axes break the local high a little later, the key next stop is to halving to 84,000. The key support zone is 64,000, which is the dynamic support of the local uptrend channel.

💸Remember, bitcoin is on a huge profit, and partly by mani management is dumped by large capital in such consolidation zones. There is also a partial “spillover” from BTC and ETH into another liquid instrument of the most hated coin. What will come out of this, April will show ...

It is quite possible that BTC will be "marinating" (consolidation) in the "uncertainty zone 64-73" for some time. If this happens, low and medium liquidity alts will shoot" as always with such (#AltSeason). Remember to sell and not get greedy.


🔵 Global targets and movement logic here.

16 мар.

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17 мар.

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4 hours. Binance exchange. The price is at the key level of 64000. The marker shows a probable scenario, if this support zone will be held and thus there will be a breakdown of this local downtrend.

19 мар.

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Price returns to the key support level of 64000. An important reversal zone, from which the trend development until mid-April is decided. Alts are sprinkled again, especially which ones are on super profits. If it is broken and we consolidate under it, the local upward channel breaks (the scenario described yesterday), although it is a small time frame, they can collect stops and pull out by squeeze. It is important exactly on a large time frame of 1 day and above. All levels of price reaction on the chart.

20 мар.

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🟣Local trend.

Locally squeeze exactly into 60,800 support, back to 64,000 zone again. Now it's already local resistance (doubt zone).

🔴📉 If we do not go above the key zone, then decline to the zone 56-58 (in fact, this is the main zone of the buyer of this correction).

🟢🕯📈If we do come back and consolidate above the 64,000 zone. Then we will see “fireworks” on alts and return to the zone of local highs. Now there is an active overflow of money into some alts.

23 мар.

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23 03 2024 After a local bounce of about +7%, the pullback to the key zone of 64,000 level again.
If this zone is held - local "double bottom - dragon" to the zone 68 000 - 70 500.
If not, the downside potential to the 56-58 zone remains.

25 мар.

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Local work. From the 64,000 level zone, price is moving towards the second local target, the 72,000 level zone. At the moment from the reversal a little more than +8%. Thus, a local reversal pattern of inverted head and shoulders has been formed. This impulse from 67,121 is the beginning of its realization of goals. Potential to the meridian zone (green dotted line), which is the historical highs of the price. Perhaps a pullback to the re test (not necessarily). What will happen at halving bitcoin mirror block 840,000 - $84,000?

25 мар.

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1 апр.

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on BTC in the moment is a local triangle (symmetrical, but can be ascending). The most negative scenario is to draw a double top (on a larger time frame). The breakout zone is now. The target of the triangle of 4 hours by TA is 7.77%.

Local movements within it will be displayed on alts (similar formations or with similar meaning of reversal zones as "big brother" projections).

😱🐳Remember, the main liquidity zone of huge short positions conventionally under 80k dollars.

🔄Now triangle (4 hours) and reversal zones. High probability of an upside breakout. At least the profit/loss ratio is good now. stop Loss is very short. Remember, everything like this is done locally from the momentum situation. News background is invented ex post facto to accompany and justify the price movement.

1 апр.

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4 hours. The "sawing" of the zone continues. On April 1, April Fool's Day, under various joking nonsense (for example, USDT scam) decline to the local dynamic trendline (highlighted in green). Removed the local stop-loss long zone. Targets from this zone are locally the same.

3 апр.

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3 апр.

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Time frame 1 day.

declined to the 64000 level area by about -8% from the 69,450 breakout. Earlier percentages and logic is shown. Still nothing changes, a symmetrical triangle - double top is forming on a large time frame. Depending on the reaction of this zone (consolidation/not consolidation).


Special everything simplified, to understand the logic, Levels values rounded (will not be accurate, but so clearer). There are 16 days - bitcoin halving. For other time zones and what their essence was said earlier.

Realization of the triangle (breakout on volume and consolidation of the local downtrend, purple) - April is quite bullish.

Breakout and consolidation under 64,000 - double top implementation. Buying zones are shown. The month is quite bearish.

No breakout of the local downtrend after price growth within the triangle - realization of a triple top. The month will be a sawing of this zone, i.e. alternating positive/negative.

Since it all will be displayed on alts in multiplied coefficient - observe risk management, working in any direction. This is all local and possible effect medium term. In a globally bullish scenario, this is one of the stop-consolidation zones.

4 апр.

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7 апр.

Заметка

symmetrical triangle was formed. The price is in the band and reached the local “level” of 69,450. Stops have accumulated on both sides of the triangle — they can move in either direction, and there will be liquidity locally from the triangle.

The liquidation zone of futures with big shoulders is the zone of 71-72 thousand. If before halving, they will make a pennant — under 80 thousand — super liquidity and short liquidation. From those values can be a significant decline, but not immediately.

The main zone of liquidation of long positions of large volume is 56-58. I am inclined that it will happen from higher values than now. The important zone is the price reaction at the resistance of this triangle and the “liquidity harvest”.

Breakout and consolidation — pennant. Corresponding reaction of alts.
No breakout — sharp decline - take out longs.

7 апр.

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9 апр.

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+3.68% We entered the zone of local stops of shorts 72, thereby forming an ascending triangle (bullish) with a base of 31%. The price is still near the breakout zone.

9 апр.

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12 апр.

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Local trend. Time frame 1 day. 10 04 2024 an important point is local for BTC, the price is at the lower edge of the triangle.

😱Massive negative news on US banks and an “attack” on #Israel A short scenario may come to fruition, or the collection of long StopLoss liquidity under the triangle. Huge liquidity zone 64,000.

13 апр.

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entry into the 60400 zone with a squeeze jab to the 60800 level (huge liquidations) and a quick comeback. Take advantage of the opportunity, especially on alts. Don't be afraid, but manage your capital wisely.

13 апр.

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17 апр.

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20 апр.

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20 04 2024 The market is standing. Everything is still the same. Quickly drew and reminded the value of this zone.

28 апр.

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04/28/2024 Local work. Oddly enough, the market, with the exception of some individual alts, is “worth it”. Everything is the same as before, levels, liquidity zones and expectations of the majority and probabilities of the minority.

🔴Showed percentages of key local levels and zones after the ascending triangle broke down. A local downward channel is now forming. There is a second wave of decline inside it; key price zones were announced and shown earlier. The first zone was passed by 64,400 - 60,800. The next one in terms of liquidity collection is 58-53.

🟣An extremely negative scenario, rather a coincidence of circumstances not in the crypto world and luck 46,000 - 44,000 (probably not enough, but worth considering from the position of capital distribution in money management). Then, naturally, there is a strong rise in prices, digitalization is taking place all over the world... It is very worthwhile to take this point seriously for those who are gaining positions with long margin leverage. Curb your greed. Keep your risk low at all times.

🟢To go to the short stop loss liquidity zone, it is the breaking of the resistance of this downward channel that is important, that is, the implementation of the “Dragon” pattern. The key zone of “non-return to these values” and the target at 138 -160” will be the fixation of the BTC price above the previous price highs (73,777) with a “margin”, say 75,388.

🔄 Beginning of May. The key time zone for Bitcoin and the crypto market as its projection. In which it will be decided whether May and part of June will be bullish or not.

Alts with high and medium liquidity. The latter are more relevant. Some are now at the zones of their conditional support of the dialing channels, some in the secondary trend have rolled back to retest the breakout zone of the resistance of the dialing channels. Recruit in parts, having distributed the capital in advance, for example, into 2-3 zones, and don’t be afraid of anything. One of them now. Ignore those altcoins that have a lot of news noise and have significantly improved. Don't be interested in crypto events and news. Everything is always the same.

The market will be pumped up very much, because the meaning of all the world's ideas "is the promotion of digitalization. The crypto market is its mass media basis. Countering anything is the most powerful promotion tool. No matter how scared you may be locally when looking at the graph, it is important to understand what is happening globally. If you often look at the charts and are interested in the invented nonsense for it, you will not even take what is distributed for the sake of promotion.

Again, he repeated everything said and shown earlier. In trading, those who understand what they are doing and control their risks, and do not guess prices, always win. Any trader with several years of experience understands where the price will go to implement one or another potential scenario. But not everyone, understanding this, can control their risks when the price goes against their main scenario. This is especially true for margin trading and futures. Work in both directions, without prioritizing one of the scenarios, always control the risk. Treat the market “coldly” and unbiasedly. Don't be interested in the opinion of the majority.

1 мая

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from the 63,406.69 zone is currently -10.9%. Pressing towards the 53,000 zone under the stock market, making up crypto negative news to justify the move.

1 мая

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this is what a hike into this zone and huge long liquidations look like on a line chart. Also launched a tournament from tradingview with a prize pool of $45,000

5 мая

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50 05 2024 is an important moment for the market as a whole, where the local and possibly medium-term trend direction is decided.

After entering the liquidity zone of 58-53 you $, the price has grown at the moment by 13.6% to the key resistance zone with the central value of 64550, thus there are now attempts to break the logic of resistance of the descending local channel.

🟢📈Breaking and consolidating it - impulses-fireworks on alts +30-40% in stronger ones, in liquid or less weak ones less by an order of magnitude.

🔴📉 Not a breakthrough - the second run, but most likely, first again to the zone of 58,000, and then with a high probability to 53,000. On alts similarly.

BTC percentages from this reversal zone to key resistance and support levels were shown earlier, I have duplicated them again.


Alts as a projection of bitcoin rose by +20-30% to their resistances. Almost everywhere the situation is identical. Due to the fact that this resistance zone is key and dictates the development of further trend (clamping). #stoploss is very short, take-outs are large. By the way, both longing (under the squeeze zone) and shorting (over the resistance, or over the pin bar if a false one is formed).

5 мая

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12 мая

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05/12/2024 From the zone of level 65661.84 #rollback to support 60800. 5th day this level is held by exchanges. The price is above the resistance of the downward channel. Percentages from this breakout/non-breakout zone to key reversal support/resistance levels.

Alts will act as a projection of the “crypto market index” represented by Bitcoin. Follow risk management if you work locally. Especially if with a margin. In the spot, gain positions little by little and don’t be afraid.

15 мая

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15 05 in the number of the gematric name of Bitcoin local impulse. From the reversal level of 60800 there is quite an intense impulse at the moment. I focus on the small time frame of 4 hours.

🕯 Alts as a projection of the “crypto market index”. The next local key resistance is 65,660, then the zone 68-69 thousand.

16 мая

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Local work 4 hours.

Reaching +9.69% from the level of 60800 to the level of 65661 (slightly higher as shown in percentage). Now is the important point:

🔴🟢 not maintaining this level zone - rollback to 63,406. If after this dynamic support is maintained - rebound and growth of +15.8%

🔴 They are unlikely to give below 63 thousand, but the next local zone in cases of failure to maintain the level is 60,800, up to 58,000 (unlikely as there is very little time). Strong support is always not levels, but rather dynamic support of large directions (not trending in the classical sense), as well as resistance.

🟢 holding this local support - the implementation of the pennant to the zone of 69,450. That there is the beginning of the implementation of the inverted head and shoulders with a base of 15.8% to the liquidity zone of 72-76 thousand.

Larger scale line graph to understand this local area. 4 hours

16 мая

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time frame 1 day to understand the speculative game 3 almost months

21 мая

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Another impulse due to short stops +9.13% from the reversal level of 65661.84 (change the decimal point??) on May 21 to the resistance zone of $72,000 -73,777. Rollback after the impulse.

The targets of the pattern "inverted head and shoulders" are realized, from the reversal zone now at the moment +26% with the target initially shown +31.08%

Is the local alt season starting?

21 мая

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7 июн.

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07 06 2024