Bitcoin – Is The Bottom In?

12 авг. 2018 г.

Overview:

The structure of price action here is showing signs of a bottom. The 6000 level is a key psychological level, and the bears as much as they have been piling into the short trade, have failed to break through. This is a summary to the recently posted article on S.C. which goes more into depth on the over the counter market and the Coinbase debacle.

I am not sold that we move lower from here though many are calling for 5000 and lower targets. Can we move lower, absolutely which is the reason we have not issued a trade yet. We are looking for further confirmation that weak hands have been shaken, and shorts are getting exhausted.

There are three support levels which are highly concentrated between 5755 and 5995. The previous bar failed to break through 6000 at a point where shorts were piling into an already crowded trade.

Currently the bullish structure is still valid. If Bitcoin' can break through the 6630 level we are likely to get a short squeeze with an initial target in the low to mid 7k’s.

Initial resistance is found just under 7k at 6960, with our first major resistance level between 7550 and 7700 where there are two overlapping levels of interest. If Bitcoin' can push through the 7700 level we are likely to see a bullish continuation confirming we completed wave 2 and are in an initial wave 3 cycle.

If 5755 fails to hold, than 5115- 5380 is the next support zone. A breach of 5755 does not automatically imply the market moves towards 3000 as many that are bearish have suggested. It only implies that the market is still soft, and lacks the sentiment required to move it higher.

The Coinbase debacle the other day may have resulted in a selloff. Nothing like good ole conbase shutting down the BTCUSD' pair due to "lack of liquidity", clearing out he huge buy side order book, and than in lieu of shutting down the API's upon reopening the market, just flipping the switch. There is some clear evidence that algo trading system may have triggered the selloff we saw on the 10th. They shut the exchange down for "lack of liquidity" than turn it back on with the order book in play? Hmmmmm when are heads going to start rolling at coinbase?

Summary:

Whether coinbase was attempting to manipulate the market or it was just stupidity is insignificant. These are the risks of trading these markets. Either way someone should be held accountable It is all to odd that only the BTCUSD' book was closed. Regardless the market always re-balances itself. Judging by the way this all played out, I am assuming that just do not have their crap together. I find it difficult to believe this was manipulation from a company that is looking for SEC' approval. At some point heads should roll based on bad decisions regardless.

12 авг. 2018 г.

Заметка

A couple questions on the 5 wave corrective leg. Keep in mind that it is a 8 wave cycle. This is leg 2 not leg 5. After leg 5 you get a the abc corrective pattern. There is an abc corrective pattern in the short term, and there are several patterns that could evolve.

I am looking for evidence that we have completed a wave 2 or we are still in the corrective pattern. There are numerous possible patterns here and attempting to break it down for 5-6 different possibilities is fruitless. This could be a broader ABC corrective pattern we just do not know, but there is a definitive 5 wave pattern here. How it evolves and whether it is the right pattern will only be determined in the future.

Bottom line corrective waves come in 535 333 335 33333 and more complex patterns. Its a place holder until we have evidence of the pattern, do not get caught up in wave counts in the shorter term. You will go nuts trying to do every possible count.