BTCUSD: Top is in

26 нояб. 2017 г.

I believe we're topping here. I'm out of BTC but also out of exchanges, so I would only risk sending small deposits to bitmex or okex to go short if willing to. Otherwise, being in altcoins like BCH or ETH, would pay off similarly possibly. There are other picks we're in, but won't disclose all here.
I'm long BCH but I'm in no way endorsing or supporting Jihan and his miners' cartel, I dislike the centralization they introduced into BTC, but, it's one of the negative fundamentals, together with potential regulations, and the action of CME traders, that will lead to a top here. This might start a lengthy sideways/volatile bear market. Not a straight line down...Altcoins may flourish, sporadically, and we may eventually see this space evolve into something much larger and greater. Looking forward to it.
Best of luck and don't drink the permabulls koolaid.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

28 нояб. 2017 г.

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Looks like a top:
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/t/t255UfwC.png

28 нояб. 2017 г.

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Support holding so far.

29 нояб. 2017 г.

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The possible top just shy of 10k is out of the picture, we might end up hitting higher. Levels but even then, it simply isn't feasible to buy this without a buy signal with a defined risk/reward and probability, so, it's better to stand aside if not in, or if long alts, hold them.

I estimate we will see a rally until the end of this week, or for 2 more days at least. Need to wait and see, and go bar by bar, as new information is available. We also need a change in fundamentas, big news to come out, to make this rally stop. I'm not entirely sure what altcoins will do this time around, we can't possibly predict that far in the future now.

To the cycle/seasonality crowd: fractals aren't reliable, history rhymes but doesn't necessarily repeat itself. You also need some rules based framework that is tested, to determine when to apply this or that fractal. Without it, it's just one big fat guess with the same odds as a coin flip.

I haven't tried shorting, and won't try it, I choose to stay off exchange, mainly in select altcoins and rotating between the ones that are set to perform the best in USD and BTC terms.

29 нояб. 2017 г.

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Short term probability matrix for BTCUSD