🔥 Bitcoin Copying Last Cycle's Bear Fractal

15 мар. 2022 г.

In today's BTC analysis I want to shed some light on the downtrend that BTC has been trading in for well over 4 months now. Specifically, I want to compare it to last cycles bear fractal, which occurred after the blow-off top in 2017. The pink fractal is a direct unedited copy of the 1-year bear market after BTC topped late in 2017.

When we compare the current market structure to the market structure of 2018, we can discover some striking similarities.

1: First liquidation even after the all-time high, followed by a minor bump which got sold off.
2: Second liquidation event with more volume. This even creates a strong support which will hold for a couple of months.
3: Double top correction after second liquidation. Bearish price action continues.
4: Bearish move after double top. Does not create a lower low below the second liquidation's wick.
5: Second bullish correction. Top is lower than the double top correction.

Assuming that the bear-market is playing out the same as in 2018, but quicker, I've added the last half of the 2018 bear market in yellow to the current market. This could signal that there's much lower volatility to come our way, before eventually capitulating towards <30k.

I'm not convinced that the current market will play out exactly the same way as 2018, but it's an interesting view nevertheless. It would certainly fit the overall bearish narrative in the stock and crypto markets.

What do you think will happen?