🔥 Predicting When Bitcoin Will Top & Bottom Next Cycle

5 июн. 2022 г.

In this analysis I want to take a look at Bitcoin's next upcoming bull-cycle. The main indicator for this analysis is the RSI.

As we know, Bitcoin trades in cycles. These cycles are loosely based on the 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle where mining rewards are being halved (decrease of supply).

We're using the top of the monthly RSI to determine our technical cycle top. I'm aware that BTC made a new all-time high in November-21, but this is not the on-chain and technical top. If you look at the on-chain data like HODL-waves, PUELL, MVRV-Z score etc, you can clearly see that all of the on-chain data topped in April-21. Same goes for the monthly RSI.

If we extrapolate the distance between previous monthly RSI tops, we can assume that the next BTC top will be somewhere between 1186 and 1491 days from the current technical top. This corresponds to an expected top between June-24 and April-25.

Note that we first have to spend some time below 50 on the monthly RSI (yellow area). It's hard to predict how long we have to stay in this overly bearish area, but it's safe to assume we're going to trade dominantly bearish for another 4-6 months before we can potentially see a new bullish macro trend.