BTCUSD price movement scenarios

22 окт. 2018 г.

BTC price movement has 4 clear scenarios of further development. Probabilities of these scenarios are not equal. Taking into account current Technical and Fundamental analyses findings we can say the positive scenario has a greater probability to take place.

DMI shows a small standard deviation, while PPO reveals no divergence, Stoch RSI is neutral and trade volume is relatively low. Fundamental side is neutral too, there was a meeting of US congress with Dr. Doom. Topic was criticism of cryptocurrencies and Blockchain technology. As a result the price of Bitcoin fell down but quickly recovered to the triangle upper edge.


Taking into account all historical and current information we developed 4 scenarios:

The first scenario
Price will move down along with the upper edge of the descending triangle pattern which is drawn on the chart till it reached the orange line (lower edge of the small triangle) around $6 055

Then the price will bounce upward and break through $6 500 resistance which will start an impulse growth with a subsequent breakthrough $6 850 resistance level. Here we can see $7 000+ prices.

Probability of this scenario is 20% as it highly depends on trade volume and consolidation after the 1st breakthrough


The second scenario
The price moves alongside the upper edge of the triangle as it does in the 1st scenario, but after it breaks through the resistance of $6 500 we will see a corrective pullback and consolidation around $6 200. From this point we will see a bounce and further rise to $6 550 level.

Probability of this scenario is the highest among all and equals 60%.


The third scenario
The price will move alongside the upper edge of the small triangle as in the previous scenarios. However it won't bounce from the orange line and will breakdown and start to move in the range of the bigger triangle bouncing from its edges. In the end we expect a breakthrough from $5 000 level to $5 850.

Probability of this scenario is 15% as there is no fundamental and technical background for such price movement, however it can occur due to manipulations.


The fourth scenario
This is a deadly scenario for Bitcoin which we should always take into account. The price will reach the end of the bigger triangle and will sharply go down to the 2-3 years minimum. This will start a depression and stagnation of BTC and crypto.

The probability of such negative scenario is 5%


We think the most likely the price will follow the 2nd scenario and after the bounce we will see a small corrective pull back for price consolidation. It is a good time to trade Alts. According to BTC investments you should wait a little bit before open large long term positions

14 нояб. 2018 г.

Сделка активна

We want to remind you about this analysis that was made on 22th of October

There were discussed 4 possible scenarios of BTC price movement and it was said the most probable is the second:

The price moves alongside the upper edge of the triangle as it does in the 1st scenario, but after it breaks through the resistance of $6 500 we will see a corrective pullback and consolidation around $6 200. From this point we will see a bounce and further rise to $6 550 level.


Our market risk level analysis was based on this scenario. As we can see the price accurately follows the second scenario.

This night BTC price sharply decreased up to $6 160. The reason is Bitmain has announced new S15 miner which has an outstanding performance. Network difficulty is too low for it that is wht we had this decrease.

Our recent signals were stopped because the BTC market has crashed and should stabilize before we produce new. The risk and uncertainty will significantly reduce when the price start to move in a way corresponding the last part of the second scenario

16 нояб. 2018 г.

Сделка активна

Sharp decrease broke the second scenario. Now the price moves to the lower edge of the Descending Triangle. This movement corresponds to third scenario. In case IHS that can be observed at the 2-hours timeframe chart will not change the trend to bring the price back to the second scenario, then Bitcoin price will move lower to the $5 200 level

In case the third scenario holds the price will fluctuate between $5 050 and $5 625 range till the end of December. It should move out of the triangle around 22th of Decemeber. This date corresponds to the beginning of the new mining season with S15 and T15, BTC network difficulty will significantly increase and fundamentally the price should grow.

Based on this we think the 4th scenario has a very low probability as well as returning to the 2nd scenario path. As always the price will follow Triangle pattern and will break it upward starting a new bullish trend


Currently the price seems to consolidate at the level $5 550 and we can buy cheap and strong alt coins to make a good profit in the short term

16 нояб. 2018 г.

Заметка

imgur.com/a/ux1ptQy

IHS at the 2-hours timeframe

16 нояб. 2018 г.

Заметка

imgur.com/a/Co8y716

Scenario changes

19 нояб. 2018 г.

Заметка

The price touched $5 200 level as we mentioned in previous analysis. Currently we expect small fluctuations of BTC in a range of $5 050 and $5 625 till the end of the december. The whole market is very depressive and bearish now