BTC Global look at stock and cryptocurrency markets

19 янв. 2021 г.

After on 8 January 2021, the Bitcoin price set a historical high of about $42,000 (depending on the crypto exchange), its value went into a correction stage.
Fundamental Analysis:
Now the attention of the entire stock and crypto world is riveted to events in the United States. After all, Trump has 1 day left to be president. And already 20.01.2021 the inauguration of the 46th president - Biden.
The index S&P500 is overheated, but continues to grow or is near the high. We wrote more thoughts about the stock market in the idea of the Dow Jones index. Nevertheless, the nervousness of the situation in the US and, accordingly, the stock market is over the top. This is clearly seen in the falls of Facebook and Twitter shares after negative posts and Trump's blocking. To make money, institutional investors need a calm vector of price movement (money loves silence), and not emotional and impulsive claims and actions.

Despite the fact that on the 12th anniversary of the genesis of the first BTC block, the capitalization of the crypto market reached $1 trillion, it is still very young and impressionable. Small fluctuations in the stock market create a real roller coaster in the markets of the crypto world.
Many media outlets are now writing that large companies are buying or considering Bitcoin and Ethereum as an investment asset. But there are a few buts: the part of the crypt in their portfolios is minimal, the crypt in their portfolios is in the column "very risky assets", and such assets are sold primarily in the event of negative fluctuations.

Let's move to the BTCUSD chart to look at the situation from the technical analysis side:
Here is a chart of the BTCUSD price movement for the last 3 years. The Fibo grid is stretched from the 2017 high to the 2018 low. The chart clearly shows how in 2018 the Fibo level of 0.382 was a reliable support level for half a year. Also, already in 2020, the Fibo level 0.618 for several months acted as a strong resistance level, under which the forces were consolidated for the rally, which we have seen in the last quarter.
Also, from a technical point of view, it is interesting how the BTCUSD price retested the Fibo level 0.618 at $9813, this is the minimum value of the candlestick before the start of a rapid upward trend. In our opinion, the BTC growth stopped before $42,000 for a reason, because the Fibo level passes there, respectively, the expected massive fixation of results for trades took place.

If you look at the CME futures chart, you will immediately notice a large GAP formed on 24-28 December, 2020 from the mark of $23,745. Interestingly, new contracts were opened on 23.12.20, and the settlement day was 29.01.21. Those who opened short positions then are now in a very difficult situation and will try to lower the price as much as possible. Also, TA laws say that the gap should be filled. Of course, this does not always happen, but the level of $23,745 should be written down in a prominent place and remembered about it.

When the altseason will be?
Another important question that many are interested in: "When will the altseason come" because Bitcoin has more than doubled from the previous high, and most of the altcoins could not even reach their ATH. The BTC dominance is 65.2%, Ethereum 15.3%, while such situation is on the crypto market, the altcoins will not shoot. Capital flows from altcoins to Bitcoin and back. When BTC will dominate at least 50%, then the real altseason will come.
To summarize: the market situation is now more on the side of the BTC fall and altcoins following it. Perhaps, when Bitcoin falls, the capital will flow from Bitcoin to altcoins which, in turn, after the fall, will be able to start shooting well upward if Bitcoin continues consolidation.
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