A year in the life of Bitcoin

7 дек. 2021 г.

As a professional trader, I have been lucky enough to have been buying Bitcoin since 2011. Here's a post showing what I have seen this last year, which to be fair has been amazing to see first hand.

I remember the buzz of trading penny stocks 20 years ago and crypto seems to have brought that excitement back for many! However, for Bitcoin this year has been proof of the institutional players joining the club. Which is not always as it seems - many retail assume more big players in and the price only moves up.

Here's a view from the last year;

December 2020; (click image for post)

For the first time you where able to see decent correlation with Bitcoin and other instruments pitted against the Dollar. Which meant it was beginning to be taken seriously by the powers that be. The reason I give some history above was to explain that during the 2017 rally, you could see the move was hype rather than large volume from "fund type investors". As a VC investor in technologies around Cyber, AI and Blockchain looking back at that period you could clearly see that it was in the transition period. Many blockchain projects where being invested in by other VC's on one pre-condition. Where the price of Bitcoin was on the day or during the week. If it was up, they would sign a deal, if it was down they would walk away. It was a time of uncertainty for old school money.

Post the drop and run from early 2018 through to 2019. Other projects came to fruition that meant even in the investment world it moved from Technology focused to financial capability driven. By this I mean, when investment came to blockchain prior to 2018 it was a technology investment (although yes it still is today) you need to understand the operators in the investment world. Beyond venture capital you have other entities and these often have even more diversified portfolio's - they include Private Equity, Hedge funds, Family offices and several others. Unlike VC's who have a focus (more often than not) these are what a venture capital fund is often made up of. It's these guys putting the cash into the funds, they also invest in properties and other such investments. Enter the Funds and ETF's in particular.

In chart terms this could be seen as Re-accumulation; although the earlier adopters (myself included) where in the instrument before the MEGA players came to town. Click the image for the post **

This was posted in January this year showing the forecasted targets to the next level.



In February I posted an article about the value area;

The value area proved to be very accurate and therefor the justification of the MEGA players starting to take some control of the instrument.

As I saw the psychology of the retail play into the hands of these tactics, every day become more fascinating to watch key levels being used and the retail crowd being controlled and herded like cattle into the waves. I covered some of this in a psychology based post again in March - click link through for post.

This literally was merriment of a technology becoming a real world asset!

As you can see here - this solidified the professional & strong hands not only operating in the space, but controlling it.

This next one - most of my followers know me for. This is where the masses where shouting "accumulation" Again, as clear as day the signs where written and mapped out.

Here's the AFTER image.


So as you are starting to see, it's now playing by the rules - all of this in front of my eyes.

Later in March I wrote out a full on Roadmap; Click image

I covered here the logic for the waves.


And obviously;


In May this year I covered the basics of Wyckoff and why the Rocket call and the Roadmap where viable options. This was featured as an editor's pick by TradingView

In April; I posted about the Grayscale discount rates.

With Grayscale, Wyckoff and the Elliott situation, we ultimately saw the drop from the previous ATH and the retail crowd had Billions wiped off their positions in a very short period.

In June I was talking about the emotional analysis and why these types of tools work so well.

July - Highlighting the lack of common sense;

August - Why it's not a simple line.

Yes that's a drawing not an image ;-)

End of August - the pullback for the long position up to the new ATH.

September was "what we are going to need for mass adoption"

Even covered some insight to Dark Pools;

Fast foreword a couple of months and we could forecast the monthly 3 situation in terms of Elliott Wave;

The above was the 30th of September into a new high (grey top level) covering clusters below;

October - highlighted the retail sentiment.

Fuelled by this guy;

I had a ton of people come and say "he's not wrong" forgetting he called 92k in April. Retail seeing what they wanted to see and not what's in front of them.

On the 10th of November we saw the September level being used as clear resistance.


In November I talked through the money flow and the COT situation currently;

See link to post in related ideas.

As a professional trader of over 20 years and an active VC investor I am overall Bullish Bitcoin, I do however have one slight hesitation. Mainly to do with the Governments and people in control of the financial systems globally. I covered this in another post - Now I am not saying it's what it is, I am saying "What if"...

So here's the year of Bitcoin posts, running commentary and some education in between.


Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.