Miner Confusion? An Unusual State in Hash Rate Growth
The current plateau in Hash Rate growth is most unusual for Bitcoin.
The Hash Ribbons 1 month and 2 month moving averages have never been this close - for so long - except during a capitulation event.
We can measure the relative "growth" of the current month Hash Rate (HR) to the prior 2 months as: Growth = (1m HR - 2m HR)/(1m HR)
In November 2019, "Growth" has been below 0.5% for over 7 days now, without a cross-over (capitulation event) occurring.
However, it appears as though miners are moving cautiously, and may be struggling between two tough choices:
1) To commit more resources to Hashing (and trying to accumulate more Bitcoin) ... OR...
2) To cut back Hashing power and risk missing a major Bitcoin Bull Run.
In attempt to plot some "similar" historic scenarios, I have flagged in red where "growth" was historically less than 2% for at least 1 week:
OCCURRENCE: DAYS TO CAPITULATION
Result: in 5/8 cases a capitulation occurred within 1 month.
This suggests there is roughly a 60% chance of a capitulation occurring in the next month.
However, this result should be taken as a GUIDE ONLY.
10 years of data, and 8 similar data points, is FAR from an exact science. We only have 10 years of Bitcoin history to work with, it is imprecise, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored.
Notes:
* Capitulation occurred >> 2 months away
** I excluded any occurrences within 2 months after a capitulation
The Hash Ribbons 1 month and 2 month moving averages have never been this close - for so long - except during a capitulation event.
We can measure the relative "growth" of the current month Hash Rate (HR) to the prior 2 months as: Growth = (1m HR - 2m HR)/(1m HR)
In November 2019, "Growth" has been below 0.5% for over 7 days now, without a cross-over (capitulation event) occurring.
However, it appears as though miners are moving cautiously, and may be struggling between two tough choices:
1) To commit more resources to Hashing (and trying to accumulate more Bitcoin) ... OR...
2) To cut back Hashing power and risk missing a major Bitcoin Bull Run.
In attempt to plot some "similar" historic scenarios, I have flagged in red where "growth" was historically less than 2% for at least 1 week:
OCCURRENCE: DAYS TO CAPITULATION
- Apr 2012: 2
- Dec 2012: 2
- Dec 2014: 2
- Apr 2015: 21
- Nov 2016: No Capitulation*
- Oct 2018: 5
- Mar 2019: No Capitulation*
- May 2019: No Capitulation*
Result: in 5/8 cases a capitulation occurred within 1 month.
This suggests there is roughly a 60% chance of a capitulation occurring in the next month.
However, this result should be taken as a GUIDE ONLY.
10 years of data, and 8 similar data points, is FAR from an exact science. We only have 10 years of Bitcoin history to work with, it is imprecise, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored.
Notes:
* Capitulation occurred >> 2 months away
** I excluded any occurrences within 2 months after a capitulation
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